USCG RS

The UKMET was too far south in the long/medium range with the previous system (remember having trouble finding the MSLP low because of how south/weak it was on the UKMET?) ... And considering it seems to be a known bias, I wouldn't recommend getting to giddy unless it's supported by more reliable models and ensembles (such as the EPS, and even the GEFS to an extent)

 

The Deep Thunder model seems to gather attention every so often, and then become obscure again ... I can only remember one forecast from the Deep Thunder model around a year or two ago, where it projected close to a foot of snow in my area (this was around the 84 hour tracking range), where in reality, the storm ended up more repressed and with much less snow... I wish I had maps to support this, but sadly, I can only go off of memory... My main point here is that despite the promising press surrounding this experimental model, I think that it is best to not hug the model—or any for that matter—without stronger model support and consensus.

 

Overall, it seems that models are tending towards more rainy solutions, followed by "vodka cold," as some like to say... :0)

At this juncture, colder solutions and trends are certainly possible, but I think that tempering expectations and not being swept up in the model hype is the best thing to do for now. 

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Yeah, but I think he meant often times they are hand in hand.

How can the Euro be so different

Meaning NYC never gets above freezing or below freezing?

I dont think 0c 850 line ever makes it to nyc. I'm very busy at work and i dont have a subscription to either so there's not much I can say.   Shows 12"+ for nyc though. 

The ukie is a snow storm and a big one at that.

At least wait until the soundings come out Tony.
 

Dr no

I would toss the GFS thermal profiles. The Euro being that warm holds more water, but honestly the NAM seems to do best with low level cold air.

models underestimate dense low level cold so the ice threat is significant imo

Per Euro we're talking ~1" freezing rain in 6 hours. It's hard to freeze up substantially at that rate.

Wondering if snow cover laid down by the Friday storm could force a track further South than what models might suggest. 

Wouldn't a setup like this favor a low development off the coast? 

The high is centered over ND.

It's North of last run so far

It just doesn't want to snow. I think if we get to Feb 5 without any snowfall and none on the horizon then I'll probably give up. 

The pattern just isn't clicking the way it was supposed to. 

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Verbatim, it would not be rain. Look at surface temps...

Give it time.  Models will bounce around for the next few days in what seems a tempermental battle between the TPV and WAR.  At this point though, I don’t think the tele’s favor a snowy solution for us coasties. MJO’s antics continue to be the flies in the ointment, meaning that the WAR probably buts in too much.  Maybe a bit of payback for all of those glorious coastal scrapers we have seen over the past few years that have shut out the interior.
 
Patience though.  I think our fortune might change in a few weeks when the MJO either moves into the COD or more favorable phases.  The blockiness modeled up top will help.  There’ll definitely be plenty of cold nearby too. 

Never mind the thermals. SLP goes over LI

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3 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

But the Euro - a major model not affected by the shutdown is showing 2 -4 inches - I wouldn't trust any American model that is not being maintained properly (especially as the shutdown drags on)  till the shutdown is over...…...plus discounting the Euro is dangerous

Interesting you bring this up, I really had not thought of that. 

My Top 10

 

1.  Above average temps for our subforum

2.  Above average snowfall for our subforum

3. Tony will be banned 2 more times

4.  I will figure out which name snowman19 is posting under

5.  BxEngine will finally apologize to Pam

6.  Metsfan will make 100s of vague posts

7.  People will yell bust before a storm begins

8.  Sun angle posts will start around Feb 20th

9.  It will hit 70 degrees at some point in NYC

10.  Forky will post a list of people we should ban  

 

Bonus:  Yanksfan will get all "hot and bothered" over a rain storm. 

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See.  Not so hard to be reasonable.

8 minutes ago, Semper911 said:

200 yards? Are you sure it's that much? 2 football fields? My vis is like from the endzone to the 30yd line. 100 feet and then a wall of white.

Yeah even down here it is really coming down 

7 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I' went real robust with my latest snowfall map.  Reasoning, models are high on snowfall outputs, even though we have started off as rain, we are cooling quickly throughout the boundary layer.  RI is already showing this through observations they started off as rain and turned to heavy wet snow now.  Also snowfall rates once it does snow, will be very heavy for a 10 hour period at least, we are talking 2-4" an hour in bands, I think I know where those bands are going to set up, but as always there is a chance I am wrong as well, but the coast from Cape Ann to slightly inland from Essex to Barnstable counties in the blizzard warnings should be favored to see the highest amounts where 40" could be reached.  Models are very high on widespread amounts of QPF in the region over 2" from eastern CT to Maine, and there is a good chance I might bust low on the amounts in RI and CT.  With the severe wind gusts, winds already gusting to 35 to 50mph on the Cape and Islands, we could see severe blizzard conditions.  There will be no, absolutely no reason to drive anywhere tomorrow unless you are a plow driver or emergency manager official.  first bands are rolling now and remind me of a classic nor'easter blizzard that brings heavy snows.  Why this storm is bringing snow to the Cape and Islands and why Riley and Quinn didn't was because 850mb temps are very cold.  This will cool off the atmosphere through 3am EDT when snow will likely start here.  thanks for your time

No love for LI - nice write up to explain your reasoning though

Just now, dryslot said:

Grab a calculator.........

Fingers and toes bruh...