USCG RS

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

BL is the issue for us, upper levels are cold. Temp hasnt budged all day

Yeah, but if the heavy returns come in, the BL will be fine. Conversely, if we do not receive heavy returns, the BL is the least of our worries anyway.

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Wet snow now in Commack, Suffolk County, still toasty at 36

Means the LP is crashing the BL S. This is a good sign IMO

12 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

You're a little west of me.  If that shower moving west holds together, you'll probably see snow too.

It was sleeting a bit in Middle Island before  

I started my winter weather emails at Merck in the late 90s and then I became head of one of our major synthetic chemical pilot plants in 2000 and part of that job is being on the Site Emergency Mgmt team, given the tons of  flammable solvents and chemicals we have on site and use in that building; then in 2008 I was put in charge of process safety for the site, so continued my involvement with the OEM team.  My weather notes started going to the OEM guys, in the early 2000s, especially since we were all involved in snow removal (our operators are involved in that as part of the contract) and they grew over the years, such that we set up a service to have them sent to about 500 subscribers in the company as of now.  I just do winter weather and tropical weather and it's mostly for fun, but people seem to like them.  So many people wanted me to continue with them after retirement that we have one of the admins taking my content from an email I send her and posting it for employees.  

It's been said by many before, including me, but if you work in the area and are at work now and can head home, I'd highly advise it, since snow at this rate will accumulate even on major highways and we all know what happened on 11/15/18 in a similar situation.  
I just advised the emergency management Merck folks in Rahway, who I used to work with (I retired last week after 30+ years) to consider sending people home early: my weather notes continue to be sent to about 400-500 people there, even post-retirement, which is kind of cool.  

The thing is it’s going to ripping in the main band during the evening commute. It may only be a 5 mile wide area, but when it’s snowing 2-3”/hr it’s going cause a nightmare commute regardless of final totals 

I would think OEM is at least considering this possibility due to the fact that - while not necessarily expected - it is possible today.

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Can we all agree to calm down the crazy descriptions of snow this year...Getting 3-5 or 6-8 inches of snow over the course of an entire day is not getting "crushed." Its a great early season storm...People go nuts with this stuff for even a couple inches...drives me crazy when a 30 inch storm and a 3 inch storm sound exactly the same if you left out the amounts and didn't look out your window, lol.

In my new job I actually have operational responsibilities requiring me to track snow
When would the heavier snow potentially hit in the city? Is this going to derail the evening commute?

What?

So far the models all seem to be too far to the east with everything based off the current observations so I'm still leaning mostly towards a miss in NYC

I would not be surprised to see NYC, LI, S CT and E MA take a very hard hit today

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USCG, then let me just add 2 things, I appreciate his and your replies and that I am not worthy , now back to tracking 

Is this correct ? Central Park is so much colder than the Airports

Doorman is somewhat of a legend around these parts. That withstanding, he is appearance is rather rare these days. He normally moonlights when something big is in the cards.

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Brasy
that is surface low track guidance
the ULL upper level low is progged to capture the surface low underneath it 
and that is shown here

 

Doorman can you help a brother out ? I know the 70 40 line is what we look for with storms but are you saying and illustrating that the ULL is getting its act together over the 70- 40 mark ? can you please clarify for the novice / me what you are stating.

You did say this will trend east. I like your method.  I remember Joe Renken was talking about this on the accuweather forum.

Didnt see anything for city or LI before.

Actually just saw it was issued 21 min ago.2-4 for NYC

NE guys talking like its canceled lol.

The good news for the snowhounds is that the 3km NAM was by far the best model today on ptype/changeover time.  If it holds its idea for tomorrow the snow axis is definitely further east than the other guidance. 

Happy Birthday!

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31 minutes ago, elektricshock said:

Long time lurker, first (I think!) time poster...

 

Can anyone help me out with a timeline of what to expect tomorrow for EWR?  I have a 6:30p flight (and need to be in Cali by Tuesday at the latest). Should I expect it to be cancelled and preemptively try to get on a late Monday flight?  All the earlier ones tomorrow are booked...  thank you so much in advance!  (And for all of the invaluable information over the years)

I would stick with the Sunday flight over the Monday night. If things are going to become bad in the Tri-state area, it will likely be Monday evening vs. Sunday. The first part of this storm is those in the Northern Interior. The second part (Monday evening) is for our area. 

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

I think the band hits you also. These bands are fickle. 

Where it sets up, either side directly outside will be rather unhappy. It is like feeder bands for tropical systems, the subsidence on either side produces drying. 

Just now, Snow88 said:

Rgem has about an inch  or 2 on the onset tomorrow for NYC 

I am more interested in the back end... anything?