USCG RS

Just now, Hotair said:

Even if the models prove accurate, Idalia’s strongest winds by far are in the SE quadrant presently.  I can’t imagine a scenario where Tampa Bay region avoids seriously damaging surge as it moves toward the big bend or even Tallahassee 

I see you are in Tampa. I would personally prepare for the worst and make plans in case it looks like you need to move further inland. While I personally do not believe this will be the case, it would be foolish -in my opinion- not to be ready in case something like this took place. 

One just need remember Charley in 2004. 

2 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I have trouble seeing how Idalia would get past that line I drew on the map, especially as the upper level feature in the Eastern Gulf moves along.

The question is does it miss the trough... As it strengthens and remains in weak steering currents... I would think that this is a real possibility. 

8 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm not in the EM workspace, but having a patchwork county evacuation scenario like that is confusing.

I am. You're right. 

7 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

TPA airport closing tomorrow seems a bit premature to me

Regarding the EM Workspace, there is a rationale behind it, although it might be a bit premature.

--) To begin with, there are specific operations that need to be gradually discontinued. These winding-down operations do take time, but they also allow for the minimal required personnel to be present.

--) Airlines can ensure that none of their aircraft get stranded there if developments unfold rapidly.

--) This approach reduces the risk of individuals being trapped and guarantees that if the situation takes a negative turn, there won't be a last-minute rush at the airport, which could lead to people being caught there as the storm approaches.

--) It enables the airport to swiftly open up for emergency operations and planning.

--) Let's not overlook the matter of liability...

1 hour ago, dbullsfan said:

Unless thing’s drastically change it will be a surge and wind event is all. 

.

Surge is what kills the majority of persons in Hurricanes 

20 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Just about to post this…obviously see something we don’t 

OKX Discussion hinted earlier that any storms which develop will be moving slowly - around 5 knots - and likely redeveloping. So the thinking appears to be that any strong storms/heavy rn which develops will be training over specific areas. 

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Just happened here...  Most like a very powerful positive CG.   There were 5 evenly spaced, rapid pulsed very loud pop sounds, followed by the main percussive sonic explosion... then fading booms along with that effect of the sound waves echoing off in the distance.   Within just short moments my buddy text me, 'hey bro you almost got nailed' .. But the actual map of the strike was over a mile away.   Weird.  I'm wondering if there was a leader in the area where I am, and the main channel hit at the other location - hence the pops...

btw, sun was shining when that happened

The pop and buzz of a very close lightning strike is something you never forget. 

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Hideous. I felt my eyes stinging after 20-30 seconds in this stuff and scratchy throat. The winds this afternoon didn't help. And it's still high 200s-300s around here. Really hope tomorrow's better. 

This is downright dangerous tbh

24 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Doesnt really make much sense-kids will just go outside anyway...probably better to have schools open and keep them inside.

24 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Doesnt really make much sense-kids will just go outside anyway...probably better to have schools open and keep them inside.

Liability

36 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Hopefully the smoke affects the atmosphere and helps us for the winter. 

Big winter incoming ?

While I cannot comment as to that, I can definitely say that all the particulate in the air could allow for thunderstorms to pop up as the particulate is providing the platform for cloud formation. In fact, I wonder if the thunderstorms of yesterday were enhanced by all the particulate in the air. 

Picture is of NYC (from a friend). 

4 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Please take those storm vista snow maps with the fattest grain of rock salt. They are way inflated. 

Excuse me. I'm getting my 12-15 inches. The Ukie storm Vista map said so

46 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

That's a foot of snow for my area. 

1 minute ago, wishcast_hater said:

FOR US IN THE NORTH - 

 

Snow accumulations from this storm will be highest in the
Catskills where 1.5 to 3 feet are possible. Throughout the
Mohawk and Upper Hudson Valley, totals will range from 12-18
inches. Slightly lower accumulations of 8-12 inches in the Mid-
Hudson Valley and Western Adirondacks are likely, with locally
lower accumulations of 6-8 inches around Poughkeepsie. Finally,
Southern Vermont and the Berkshires could also see upwards of
12-18 inches with locally higher amounts of 20 inches or
greater. In addition to significant snowfall totals as a result
of this storm, high winds can be expected Tuesday and
Wednesday.

This storm will bring significant impacts to the entirety of our
CWA. Mild temperatures prior to substantial wetbulbing will lead
to snow that is very wet and heavy for the first part of the
storm. This heavy, wet snow (SLRs around 8 to 10:1) can be
expected Monday afternoon/evening through Tuesday morning
before a transition to cooler temperatures helps to increase
SLRs (upwards of 12 to 15:1) Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
morning.

22 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The problem is a lot of people not knowing or understanding what they are looking at despite having been on here for years.

This storm has so many red flags.

No fresh injection of cold air.

Poor track of ULL overhead.

Late developing Miller B.

I could go on but those are the most obvious.

 

Miller B was/is the biggest warning sign here imo 

It's still possible it develops early (even now)... However... I am rarely a fan of Miller Bs

For the second wave, I would be more worried about sniffing Cirrus than rain

4 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Warnings hoisted again for this weekend. 

I would not want to be in charge of that response. Nope.

15 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Too bad that Market Watch story is behind a paywall

Which one? 

2 hours ago, Rjay said:

93 but east.  955mb just inside the bm.  Only 300 more hours to go!

This about sums up my feelings rn. 

4 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I don't want to get pulled into an event that I don't like at all but the 0Z RGEM did seem to come in colder with the sleet line very close to northern parts of the city.

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023030200&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023030200&fh=57&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

 

I personally do not believe that we have seen the southern extent of the wintry wx yet. While the NAO is not necessarily flexing, it is still stronger than many of these models are viewing. 

6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

This winter moreso than others my mind already goes to the worst solution.

Based on winter trends alone I'd give an edge to the GFS however the ensembles paint a very different picture.

March will definitely be below normal, which sucks, but if it's going to be chilly then at least give me a snow event or two. Nothing worse than a cold, dry or cold/rainy miserable March. 

While I understand the sentiment, this is where the art of weather forecasting truly shines. This pattern is different than what we have seen all year. While there is always the potential that it winds up being a poor solution, what must be remembered is that every storm is technically different. 

For example: Someone driving a motorcycle does so at 120 MPH every day for 10 years thinks that nothing will ever happen to them. It is familiar. They have never had an issue. It is the same thing, road, view, and so on every day. The issue is that the world -like weather- is random and chaotic. Today, the ice storm from six months ago finally presents a crack in the road, or a random pebble is deposited by a car passing through. Or a stick falls because of a 10 MPH wind that finally exerts just enough force to break the branch and it falls onto the roadway. This defect or obstruction in the road was never there before. It is a small defect or obstruction. Most would never even notice it. Yet, nonetheless, it is a defect or obstruction which today will cause a drastically different outcome for the driver. 

Wx is the same way. One little perturbation can change the entirety of the outcome. This is why pattern recognition is necessary, but complacency is 'dangerous.'

7 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is nearly perfect. the EPS is holding serve on a legitimate KU evolution for next weekend

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Good thing the heavy echos are doing their thing and looks like the sleet line retreats a bit under them. 

The battle rages over LI, but it looks like LI wins this round...

25 minutes ago, Jaguars said:

Weird looking presentation on radar, looks like it has tentacles.


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