USCG RS

Day 10, so I really don't want to say it, but I like the zero from a macro scale perspective. 

Granted it may be our last chance

@SnowGoose69 I feel like you would know this (for some reason): Why does CPK always measure so low?

20 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Youre from Long Island of course you are 

Wife and I went to Greenville, SC. Trust me, it ain't just Long Island. Or perhaps if everywhere I go there is a douchebag and I am there... Nah. 

9 minutes ago, jaquanweb said:

im going to be working outside during the height  at ewr tommorow 

Streaking with @MJO812 ?

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yeah that would be a massacre for 4-5 hours. 

Which is honestly what my forecast is for the area and what I have been seeing for a day or two now. This is why I am concerned about area roadways. 

2 hours ago, Rjay said:

Rjay jackpot.  What do temps look like?

Well, flurries tomorrow it is. 

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

It's going to be a winter wonderland tomorrow . I might go streaking. 

If ya know, ya know. 

2 hours ago, BxEngine said:

Heh. So is my brother.

Maybe this Sub Forum needs to pay for him to go on vacation in February more often...

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

You're probably still good. But wow at the trends today. LOL 

Unfortunately, without the rates, LI is in a very different spot. All depends on how quickly this deepens. Lack of blocking may be our detractor here after all, but, eh. February 2013 was a thread the needle and wound up phasing exactly where needed. Lets see. 

Edit - I still think NYC and LI get a hard hit. Dynamics all point towards this scenario. 

41 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

I can see Long Island as a whole doing good as storm blows up more… latest HRR shows that as it engulfs the whole island with a heavy band at hour 18

I would agree with this. The key -IMO- is the phase. If it is cleaner and the storm explodes, then we have a game on system with a substantial hit for the Tri-State. IF it develops a bit late, then C/E LI have a moderate to significant hit and the rest of the Tri-State is a left behind. 

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Would be amazing if after all this time this misses to the south and hammers Coastal NJ while NYC see's light white rain. I just don't see it happening though but have to keep on eye on this trend.

I personally still believe LI, NYC, S CT, CNJ take a hard hit here. Dynamically makes sense to me. However, there is always the potential this shifts further South. Given the downstream observations though, I would say this cannot correct too much further south. Some rather heavy rains and storms transversing the Carolinas. 

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

I wouldn’t completely discount the EURO. It has support from UKIE. Definitely concerning trend here. Stay tuned 

I agree, however, the Ukie and Euro tend to follow each other. Downstream observations show a significant amount of juice with this storm. I would not completely discount, but, I would also say just keep in mind and watch Short Rangers currently. If they begin to back up the Euro, then I would put true stock in it. 

17 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Dunno, I don't think any MAJOR roadway in NYC (proper) will be terribly affected?

Where the really heavy stuff sets up (of course this assuming the phase is clean and this explodes as some of the Short Rangers are alluding to), I would say the major highways are going to gunk up relatively quickly. If you have SN to SN-, then roadways are fine. But -and again this is an assumption which could bust- if the storm sets up in such a manner so as to dump some SN+, then roadways will quickly become rather nasty. 

This is why I was saying I would prepare as if you are going to take a hit, because to be caught off guard in something like that is not fun (IE, Feb 2013 - No I am not saying this is a Feb 2013 redux). 

My 2 Cents: Those in the fringe areas, treat this as if it will be a hit and take precautions, especially NYC, LI, NW and CNJ and SE CT on up through SE MA. This snowfall will be incredibly heavy where the axis sets up and you do not want to be caught off guard. This is the type of snow which creates traffic havoc and can lead to some of these horror stories you hear of when people are stuck for extended periods of times. Not saying it will be apocalyptic, but something to keep in mind and prepare for. 

26 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said:

See March storms, early April storms, and Nov 2018. 

While I agree with you regarding March/April and Nov, I would argue that this many times is the Sun Angel over anything else. I usually roll my eyes at Sun Angle arguments, however, here is where I believe the lack thereof of the Sun Angle plays a roll. As you know - during mid to late March and April as well as Nov, the Sun Angle burns considerable accumulation off the bat as it allows considerable more energy to reach the earth. (Neutrinos I believe) were shown by several studies to significantly increase in the times you mentioned, compared to winter months. These particles allow for significant energy transfer and thus snow rates must be much higher to overcome this energy transfer (and earths absorption) from the sun. During February, however, there is a considerable decline in this number of energized particles hitting the earth (compared to the aforementioned months/time periods). Therefore, I would argue that a snow storm with heavy rates in February will create quite the havoc throughout the Tri-State. Perhaps ratios take a hit, but this time of year - I would say the Tri-State is in for a rough time (travel wise).

20 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Uggh. Maybe. Such a tough forecast for NYC. Fingers crossed! 

NYC and LI are going to get rocked. I know it's hard to believe.... But I firmly believe this is coming - and not just because I want it lol. 

54 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

The north shore of LI up into SNE could get really rocked as this bombs out.

Yes. This could quickly become a sticky situation. 

Those commuting need to keep this in mind. 

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

The “sniff the rain” zone wherever that ends up will likely be a good place to be. This is an energetic system with a lot of moisture to work with. 

Bingo. 

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's amazing how the models especially the icon has a 974 low offshore. Jeez.

Assuming this is correct (which I've provided my reasoning as to why I do believe it is), those in Long Island need to think about driving. This is going to be very heavy, wet snow where this thumps and winds look like we will be close to very poor visibility if not the sought out and belive B word. 

I would be cognizant of this and I would do my best not to drive during this storm if possible. 

Ala Feb 2013 vibes tbh. 

EDIT : No, I am not calling for 8+ inch an hr rates rn lol. 

Something to note here. Look at the dynamics in that simulated radar. A plethora of red and yellow, throughout nearly the entirety of the precip shield (even the blue has heavy simulated echos). Given those dynamics - and cold air filtering in - I would bring that Rn/Sn line south. 

Note - anyone just north of that transition line is gonna be pounded for a while. This is the type of snow that makes roads horrific. Something to keep in mind.

(Yes I know it's the NAM 3k, but my point about the dynamics stands) 

Given the Baroclynic Zone to set up, I would say this shifts south. You have cold air coming in, not retreating. 

Likewise, as a poster (MaineJay) on another board stated: "I'll go on a little limb here. The baroclinic zone appears about 20-40 miles south of what the NAM3 has it. I'm thinking that the NAMs tick south with the 12z." 

This has been my sentiment for a while (he just more beautifully stated it). 

That withstanding, given the cold air overriding the warm SSTs, I would say this shifts south. Likewise, the BCZ will allow for better dynamics as well. I would say NYC and LI, SCT as well are in a good spot for this. Thumpy. 

10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It definitely can snow despite lousy temps going into it. But that all depends on the storm taking a good track. It seems like this one might be seeing how fast the R/S line can crash south with the dynamics. We probably all see snow to end it but after how much rain or waste. 

I still believe the confluence will win out here. That and the baroclynicity will push it south a bit. Where the confluence war sets up sets the stage for a good hard thump. 

12 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Right……. I said it yesterday and I’ll say it again…… I guessing it’s never snowed and stuck to the ground with days leading up in the 50’s. Sometimes I just roll my eyes at some of you thats why I barely post! 

We literally had a blizzard a few years back and the days leading up were in the 40-50s and the day before was 70+ on long Island. 

3 hours ago, RU848789 said:

Euro looking similar to the GFS in many ways, although it's a little earlier and not as snowy - but a big improvement over 12Z, especially for those along 78 and even 95.  The early part would help with accumulations as ~90% of the snow falls before 7 am (after a good 3/4" of rain, at least for 95).  Euro and GFS vs. CMC and UK, I guess.  

That much rain given the previously warm ground... I should be skeptical of those totals. Verbatim of course. 

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

this is wild, look at that gradient between the north shore and south shore of Long Island lol.

 

edit-- it looks like the largest gradient is south of Long Island as even the south shore gets at least 4 inches on this model run.

Poconos to NW NJ will do well of course.  That 10-12 inches in coastal CT is a little unexpected though, it's even more than what it shows for NW areas.

There is such a fine line of 10 miles or so between heavy snow and rain that there's no way to know which way this will go.

February 2013 (Nemo) had this type of cutoff. I remember driving North on William Floyd and as I passed under the LIE, you could literally see the difference over a mile. It felt quite like lake effect snow. 

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

 

Interesting comparison here-- the GFS has one foot plus of snow south of NYC and on eastern Long Island and the Euro has one foot plus of snow north of NYC (but not by much.)  They both have around the same amount of snow for NYC but the GFS has more for Long Island especially the south shore and east end.  As a matter of fact, the GFS has a foot plus for eastern Long Island, even more than it does for south NJ.  Euro has zilch for south NJ lol.  They also have similar amounts of snow west of NYC into the Poconos but the GFS has much less snow north of NYC.

 

Oh the fun of being the literal transition zone. Those just north of that zone tend to do rather well. "You have to smell the rain." 

I do think Long Island could take a hard hit here, given the confluence pressing down and the avaliable moisture and energy combined. 

42 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Long Island lol-- I take it the model only sees ocean there?

 

Yes 

32 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Confusion keeps increasing too - GFS is obviously on its own regarding snowfall amounts - but it makes you wonder since it has been so consistent the last couple of days.....

GFS consistency does not mean it's correct. Seen that too many times

9 minutes ago, snobal said:

this  may become a  solid  3-6"  event

There's another forum that needs your unicorn appearances...Just saying. 

9 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said:

not that far. you can walk that to see the snow  

OT - But is Prof. Colle still teaching at SBU?