USCG RS

48 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Whoever keeps putting I-85 from Google Maps into these damn weather models needs to stop. And to think I live literally two miles south of I-85 also. I’m soo screwed.  

If the mid levels continue to warm up... I want the lower levels to as well. Id rather rain than ice.

Just now, cbmclean said:

The NAM was first to sniff out the Jan 2017 debacle.  It was on an island then as well.  If it says warm, I have to trust it.

Inside 24-36 hours the NAM tends to be very good with thermals 

37 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

I think that Low is what's enhancing the moisture to... Kinda walking the line between warm air aloft and more moisture for some. 

Weaker storm = northern steam more dominant. That could.. Could ..put many out of the game

11 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this looks cooked for anything more than light stuff. what a waste of a great synoptic setup. luckily there will be no shortage of cold through the end of the month

Part of the problem is the AO and NAO are racing/spiking positive. Even 24-36 hrs ago it didn't look quite as a dramatic a change. As that happens, there is nothing to slow the storm down and the trough doesn't orient negative nearly as quickly. Teles changed significantly the past couple days. Without these blocks - no proper trough orientation, no chance to gain strength and no stream interactions down the line. This is part of what the models are seeing IMO.

33 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Last 2 gfs runs

 

Looks to me like the large change is where exactly this closes off. The 18z was an absolutely perfect spot for this entire subforum. The 00z not so much. Given that this is global and six days out, this is actually a pretty good spot to be. 

Side note - Winds would be pretty significant here, but with no HP to the NW, the wind threat is not quite as high as it could/would be. Still something to watch nonetheless. 

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

all the wormhole portals by the alien sentinel drones opening and closing is causing temporal ripple effect in the local space. 

This started on CoViD - 

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

I don’t understand why guys keep laughing at the possible snowstorm. This is a weather forum. A possible snowstorm in December in New York. It’s not like talking about a hurricane hitting Iowa.

 

I just don’t get the craziness with the disbelief at the possibility

I think people are just burned out tbh. Basically, lets laugh at hope because of how much crap has gone wrong combined with dashed hopes. 

6 hours ago, nycwinter said:

i cannot remember the last time a system with very low probability even becoming a tropical depression all of a sudden becomes  a hurricane nhc missed the boat on this one..

I mean, this thing came out of nowhere. Did any models even have anything like this remotely happening? 

7 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

I am surprised that they did not secure it before Milton hit. They had plenty of notice to do so.

 

13 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

I am surprised that they did not secure it before Milton hit. They had plenty of notice to do so.

 

Depending on the crane it can take 3-10 days to fully dismantle. Many times they are to be allowed to swivel (ie, left in an unlocked position). Unfortunately that does not normally work for Cat 2/3+ type winds 

14 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Crane down

Unfortunately, this was a known hazard which could not be controlled in the time frame provided before Milton. 

https://www.fox13news.com/news/st-pete-construction-cranes-could-pose-threat-during-hurricane-milton

1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

Surge coming into Sarasota steadily now.

Had to retreat from Bayfront Park and back into “downtown” a bit.

Stay safe. 

1 minute ago, nutmegfriar said:

PDS tornado moving N N/E of Suncoast Estates

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=TBW&wwa=tornado warning

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Curious to see if this new eyewall developing can close. Still looks healthy if a bit ragged on IR. Like others have said it’s pretty dramatically expanding its windfield at the moment. 

It certainly appears to be attempting to clear out the eye yet again.

3 minutes ago, goctican said:

Not sure how gimmicky that is but I like it. Thank you. 

The article mentions how, 20 miles off shore, we'll probably know where the wobble finally lands. How do you find out how many miles the front face of Milton is really is, as a hurricane? 

 

 

"Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km)."

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/082359.shtml?

7 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

SW quadrant of the CDO might have trended warmer briefly, but cloudtops are cooling again. Here's both AVN and enhanced colorized for your eyes.

Man, thats a lot of lightning in there. Makes me wonder if we about to go down the rabbit hole again..

1 minute ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Taking all of today's developments into consideration, IMO there seems to be a reasonably good consensus that:

A.) There's a higher likelihood than not that Tampa Bay avoids getting right-front-quadded with a worst-case surge scenario. However, it's far from a guarantee. Such an outcome is well within the model/NHC forecast margin of error (See point [B]).

B.) Even if the center does go south of the bay, it's likely to be waaaaay too close for comfort and will bring significant wind, rain and surge impacts to a large part, if not all of the Tampa/St. Pete/Clearwater/Bradenton area. It's impossible to determine at this point where within that area receives the heaviest impacts. Therefore, no one within that area should be taking a victory lap or heading home from their evacuation spot because they read on the Internet that "the cone shifted south" or whatever. At the coast, the [url=https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/212734.shtml?cone#contents]5PM cone[/url] goes from about Crystal River to North Naples, and that's just the range of uncertainty for the center track. It says right at the top of the graphic, "Hazardous conditions can occur outside of the cone."

Disclaimer: I'm not a professional meteorologist, just a guy who likes tracking hurricanes and is a chaser (with a mediocre at best success rate) of land-based severe convective weather.

It is pretty simple, if you are in the cone of uncertainty and on the shore/in a flood zone, your life is in danger if you stay. If you choose not to evacuate and you are in one of these areas, write your name and social security number on your forearm in sharpie. 

48 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said:

Question for anyone who feels like responding -

I guess I’m used to ERC from larger eyes, or ERC’s that are more disruptive instead of the meld that happened overnight - but I suppose I was expecting more wind expansion than we see. 

Would you pontificate that’s more bc of the pinhole to not-pinhole-but-still-really-tiny eye, or bc of the meld, that the explanation was relatively “small” compared to what we’ve seen in the past. 

Or is this more I am just not fully understanding the dynamics at play here? Or is this bc the storm was already so compact that a near double feels small? Mixture of these things? 

@Moderately Unstable Would likely be a good person to answer this

30 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Given how high end it is structurally and the contracting inner eye, I wonder if we see a smoother merger of the concentric eyes rather than a major disruption. I’d place a bet on that right now which could make tomorrow even more likely to be the peak than tonight. 

We actually saw this with Hurricane Matthew. Made me ponder if ERC are actually a sign of a healthy and optimally functioning storm. The storm would go through the ERC, expand in size and increase in strength in a rather quick fashion. 

Just now, WxSynopsisDavid said:

The friction will tighten the core/eye up and help Milton to continue to intensify

I agree completely with this statement. 

26 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

storm noticeably has expanding wind field as its approaching coast

This, IMO, will be the larger potential issue and needs to be taken much more seriously than it currently is. 

Given the resilience we have seen as of late with these storms once they are developed, I would lean towards models showing them either holding or a slower weakening trend  over the ones showing intensity dropping off a cliff. Developed storms tend to hold together more often than not. 

Not to mention that models have the weakening happening in the final hours. Any delay and the intensity holds longer. 

Another thing to consider is the fact that the interaction which causes the shear will likely greatly expand the storm and the footprint thereof. Rough situation all around. 

1 hour ago, eyewall said:

I do not like that GFS run at all for Tampa and of course it will start making people nervous who were hit by Helene.

People who were hit by Helene need to prepare as if they are going to suffer another hit. 

While odds are lower at this time for that, the risk is too high given the current state of infrastructure for those recently affected by Helene. 

Everyone from Western and Northern Florida up through the areas affected by Helene need to begin making plans today for what and how they are going to react should their area become one that will be significantly affected. This includes those in areas where the moisture fetch from Milton may affect them.

The rain event which affected the Western Carolinas before Helene even came close set the stage for the disaster in the Western Carolinas and Milton may not be all that different. The NHC has already stated the storm may significantly grow in size as it approaches landfall. Others like @purduewx80 have shown how this has a potential to track NW of current landfall projections. 

This is a potentially catastrophic situation. Again. It must be treated as such unless and/or until it can be definitively ruled out. 

11AM ET NHC Discussion excerpt:

"The NOAA Hurricane Hunter crew reported that an eyewall has formed on the last center fix, suggesting that this system is ready to intensify quickly. Given the track over the very deep warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and little shear for the next couple of days, rapid intensification is explicitly forecast, and the new NHC prediction could still be conservative over the central Gulf of Mexico. The biggest question actually seems to be the intensity as Milton approaches Florida, with much of the guidance showing a notable increase in shear. While some weakening is anticipated, the shear could help transition Milton to be a large hurricane at landfall, with impacts spread out over a big area. Regardless of the details, there is increasing confidence that a powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of this week. Residents there should closely monitor this system and listen to local officials."

You'd be surprised how many people use forums like these for information. That includes people who have very limited internet right now. 

As such, I say let's keep the non weather related opinions, theories, etc in banter. 

We all need to think about the fact that these forums do actually have a very real world impact, especially for those already crippled from Helene and looking for information on Milton.