USCG RS

Given the cold BL air mass (even if midlevels warm a bit), the threat of a glaze of ice should be taken seriously. Even a small glaze of ice can snarl traffic and sidewalks. I am not saying that this will be an ice storm, but, with how cold the BL will be, I would say a glaze of ice may be more noteworthy than normal. 

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

as for the rivers in New Jersey perhaps it’s time to start thinking like they did on Staten Island after Sandy.

 

Maybe it’s time to move people away from those rivers.

 

Obviously, we’re in a new climate regime now with this kind of thing is going to be happening frequently and it’s not right to keep people in harms way. Especially when harm seems to come every few weeks now.

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

After Irene FEMA finally came in and moved people out of the hardest hit areas. It's not as easy as it sounds. People are stubborn and don't want to leave. It's not just homes that are hit hard. The Pompton and Passaic rivers both impact highways and businesses. Rt 23 is now shutdown in both directions in Pequannock Township. If you're not familiar with the area you wouldn't know but this is the major artery that connects Rt 80/46 with I-287 and points North and West.

The government is rarely effective at this type of thing (nor should they be?). What will eventually happen is that the Insurance industry will review the hardest hit areas and - if warranted - rates will skyrocket and it will become nearly impossible to obtain coverage. This, in turn, drives people to leave. 

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

This better be interesting 

 

 

That legit looks like a rope tornado

1 minute ago, guinness77 said:

I am dumbfounded at how useless the Weather Channel is right now. I know, I know…but they are not covering Delaware to NY at all. 

Happy birthday @Rjay

32 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Disposed of on twitter

 

Fixed 

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS is literally snowier for pretty much everyone. it's literally not warm lmao

people near the City need to manage expectations... this is really a NW of 95 or even a i-287 and west storm. would also want to be north of I-78. but seeing the 10th percentile and median like this is quite encouraging. probs of 3 and 6" are also quite high for many

100%. 

You, myself and others have said this before - meteorology is the recognition of weather patterns and using of models to help make forecasts. Models are not the end all be all, as we all know. So..... 

The overall weather pattern is not conducive for snow for the I-95 corridor from Southern Connecticut on Southward. Now, just because weather patterns are not conducive does not always mean the areas outlined will do poorly. That withstanding, as has been mentioned by myself and others, there is a high likelihood of either rain or a prolonged period of white rain for the I-95 corridor. The reasons for this is mainly due to the lack of cold air. The high pressure setup is not truly funneling cold air into the I-95 corridor. The high pressure extends from Southern Canada and into the Western Atlantic. This, in turn, will allow for easterly winds off of the Atlantic for the coastal areas. Therefore, as the storm is developing, it is likely to bring the relatively warm boundary layer air from the ocean and into the coastal regions. This setup is normally conducive for a coastal front setup, which - while enhancing snowfall rates to the northwest of the front-  those on the opposing side are relatively warm and wet not white.

Of course, sometimes mesoscale features can and will trump the macro scale features. However, what I believe the models are seeing is this area of intense lift that will be generated, yet I do not believe they have accurately reflected boundary layer Temps for the coastal regions.

Just something to keep in mind and to keep your expectations tempered. Of course, there are other potential flies in the ointment, however this is the largest threat I see to the coastal regions at this time. 

(I wrote this on the other board and tried to change it to fit this board a bit better. Forgive me if it comes off a bit disjointed - I am working) 

I know it's been said by others, but it bears reiterating:

Cautionary note: The models have consistently exhibited significant forecast discrepancies, even within a 12-hour window of the event, sometimes resulting in variations of approximately ±7 degrees or more. The current atmospheric conditions pose a concern for areas in and around I-95. While it doesn't rule out the possibility, it's worth noting that the high-pressure system extends into the Western Atlantic, making it less favorable for channeling cold air toward the I-95 region. In fact, the setup is conducive to the opposite effect, allowing eastward winds into the coastal areas and bringing uncharacteristically warm air from the ocean onto land. This presents a challenging scenario, particularly for the coastal sections. Just a point to bear in mind.

On 12/26/2023 at 1:53 AM, rclab said:

 

Happy Boxing Day forky. Stay well read, dry and gifted. As always …

I've been wondering where my yearbook photo went

I would say that those on LI should be prepared for an Isais (2020) redux. Winds off the deck look rather fierce and with the System going to the West while juicing (combined with what we have already seen in the SE), I would say that there is the potential for a rather significant event here. We cannot forget either, the ground is already water logged. 

3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

The Aug 2011 flood before Irene will always be memorable in Long Beach. Irene of course was bad too. This one ranks right up there. Finally some sun trying to come out. 

But this rain wasn’t “unprecedented” and we’ll see this again within a few years, so whatever the city has to do in order to prepare, should make that happen. 

Emergency Management needs a pretty significant overhaul, but alas, that is a different discussion.

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

What an absolute shit End to the day. My landlord blamed my vegetable garden for the basement flood. I have donated 100’s of eggplant from this garden. I can’t stand people who can’t understand our new normal.

I doubt the law would ever be on his side... Perhaps he is looking to go after your Renters Insurance. In that case.. Let the Insurance Carrier deal with him. Theyll put him back in his place.

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Watching News 12, Atlantic Beach looks like a disaster. Probably 18”+ water on the main road. 

This might need to be moved to Banter, however, this reminds me of the Day After Tomorrow a bit. Of course - exaggeration 

1 hour ago, NJsnow89 said:

I know this is a ny forum but anyone know what to expect in the central NC area? 

Where are you located? 

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I’m beginning to think this one might become quite interesting for us NC folks

When did you relocate? 

1 minute ago, Quincy said:

Here’s the old 18z GEFS trend loop. Notice the slower trend, more west and stronger wind field. I’d expect the trend to continue with the rest of the 00z suite. Buckle up. 

Yeah, New England needs to pay very close attention to this. Exceedingly large wind field also..

Again - Interests along the EC should be monitoring Lee. 

To those who expect definite answers in this range, you all have been here long enough to know the game. Just saying. 

No one on the EC should be writing this off right now. 

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There is certainly a chance this still hits as far back as the cape...just because I don't favor that, it is a viable outcome. I'm not pushing any agenda. Not sure what that was all about.

Personally, I will go with there is a long way to go and the eastern seaboard, especially N MA and NE need to keep an eye on it. 

Likewise, I will actually disagree with you regarding the potential for RI. I do believe it is there as the structure is actually not bad, despite the beating it has taken. 

Just my 2 cents. As far as you having an agenda? 

10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Haha beat me to it. 

Recon down to 10k ft. 

Going to be a rough ride for them. Hopefully no embedded tornados for them this time. 

3 hours ago, MANDA said:

Nice dual outflow channels with northern one evacuating into an atmospheric sink.

Absolutely perfect outflow. 

36 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

0z CMC direct hit on Bermuda

So Bermuda is safe. 

1 minute ago, HKY_WX said:

It's probably a bit premature to judge the Eye size. Eye is still clearing out/obscured and looks slightly elliptical on radar. I'd wait a few more hours to see how it matures.

Thanks for weighing in. It is always nice to be able to learn from those who are the professionals.   

7 minutes ago, Mello said:

A pretty normal sized eye that's still in the process of clearing out in an intensifying hurricane.  Pretty sure hurricane Delta in 2020 was the last Atlantic hurricane with a real pinhole eye.

I believe the difference on radar and IR imagery is where the deep convection has wrapped. The deep convection is beginning to swirl the hurricane and the IR is showing where the physics of the beast is setting up. The eye that has cleared out is pinhole. It is concerning that IR Imagery is showing that, despite the fact that radar has not quite caught up. If radar is able to catch up, well really, if the thunderstorms themselves are able to wrap tightly around the eye as to where it is cleared out then we are going to have a potentially catastrophic situation on our hands. I don't use catastrophic lightly either. 

22 minutes ago, Amped said:

The GFS on the other hand, just randomly decided to take it west of 18z for no apparent reason

NARRATOR: The GFS was acting normally....