USCG RS

10 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

I sincerely hope the media is exaggerating that story or they reported BS and didn’t do their homework like always

I'm with ya. There's definately political undertones, however, at first glance there appears to be some truth to this

5 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Use IKE. Integrated kinetic energy.

 

 

Facing a Dire Storm Forecast in Florida, Officials Delayed Evacuation https://nyti.ms/3SKlqzP

"But while officials along much of that coastline responded with orders to evacuate on Monday, emergency managers in Lee County held off, pondering during the day whether to tell people to flee, but then deciding to see how the forecast evolved overnight."

This is pretty damming if its the whole story

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah, I was referring to the newer houses built that are not on stilts. A lot of new construction will be fine against 3s and even 4s if done properly.  But the same home might be surge prone. That's all I meant.

No, I understand, however, the new homes should be placed on stilts. Unfortunately, the architects and homeowners have no desire to and this is where codes need to be more stringent. In fact, I do not even think codes need to be increased. What -I believe- should happen is you should be given the choice: build on stilts OR you can build how you like, however, Insurance Companies do not have to Insure the property (perhaps even the liability) on the structure. Same thing with Flood Insurance. 

53 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Unless they’re building sea walls after this, one day the devastation will just happen again on those barrier islands/surge zones. Not sure what building code can keep the building from taking horrible water damage. Saw it firsthand after Sandy, buildings from the outside looked not terrible but inside- totally wrecked and in many cases needed to be demolished. The barrier islands may be easier, in those cases the demolishing was already taken care of. 

42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Codes work against wind, not water.

Honestly, building codes could work for water, however, those on the water would not want to build according to the codes which would be needed. The aesthetic would be "ruined," and/or it is prohibitively expensive to build to these codes as you would have so much unusable living space which you would need to find a way to make aesthetically pleasing, yet of no further use square footage/living space wise. 

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Parts of Sanibel look like Homestead after Andrew. 

100%. Many insurance companies may be facing insolvency, which - In Florida - means every person's insurance rates (auto, house, etc) are about to skyrocket. 

10 hours ago, jm1220 said:

My town had no power for a month because of the power infrastructure problem FL will be dealing with. Places that didn’t flood in Sandy did get the power back in a week or so, and crews from IN and MO were in my town working on it. In areas that had saltwater intrusion into any power infrastructure it likely needs to be rebuilt entirely. Anything electric/metallic, the salt water destroys. 

Unfortunately parts of Florida is most likely looking at several weeks at least. It will really depend on how terribly the infrastructure took a hit, however, I have a feeling entire Substations are destroyed. 

Furthermore, I wonder how hard a hit the Fort Meyers Power Plant took. Surge would have been enough to destroy quite a bit of equipment. 

3 minutes ago, Clyde said:

Just when I thought I was making it through unscathed this happened, then another tree smashed our power pole, leaving us with no power or water. Already lost septic due the standing water so for my first hurricane ever (been through 9), appears we’ll have to relocate.

Of course, the water at the entrance to our neighborhood is standing over the road and the power lines snapped and landed in it so not sure that’s the right move either…

And still I am one of the very lucky ones compared to what I’m finding out from friends even here in the Orlando area.


.

Emergency Manager POV 

Stay put until you are sure you can safely travel to your destination. 

Power lines can easily be renergized by improperly hooked up generators and may even still be live in some cases. 

Standing water may not only be at the entrance to your neighborhood. Likewise, water can be energized. Having served in many a disaster zone, you realize standing water harbors many nasty things, including electricity. Likewise, metal guard rails can be energized many miles away (over 20+ if memory serves correct) from the downed power line. 

EMS/Fire/LE is likely overwhelmed right now and you do not want to be another one needing help as it may take quite some time. 

As long as your location is safe, I would ride out inconvenience until you are sure the path to another location is safe to travel. 

18 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Definitely. It’s all under 5 feet+ of water and 100+ mph winds. 
 

Unfortunately that's why mandatory evacuations are issued. We can't force you to leave, but no one is coming if/when you need assistance during the storm. 

13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Power outages skyrocketing now. U p to 450K. That's a couple hundred thousand in the last hour I think

Makes me think a transmission line was knocked offline. 

4 minutes ago, Normandy said:

Good news is Ian's CDO is rapidly warming....if Ian can just NOT do that bursting thing that it does perhaps we can give SW FL some kind of better news.

It can be a 2 egdged sword. Energy is neither created nor destroyed, so when a storm begins to weakened (especially if rapid), the energy from that storm has to go somewhere. In many cases it actually gives short term elevation in wind as the energy being released allows for a short term energy burst. In other words, the energy being released is partially focused through wind, which in turn creates a brief period of elevated winds because more energy than otherwise would be is being released. 

This was shared elsewhere by a friend but this is truly indicative of how horrific conditions are about to be on the west coast of Florida. 

Combined with the copious amounts of lightning still showing up in the eyewall and the clearing of the eye on various Sat imagery, there's a good shot this hits that historic Cat 5 designation as it makes LF. 

To be fair, the friction of LF may just tighten this enough to do so

40 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea, last min panic. 

In theory, local emergency management has a plan for this. 

That withstanding, plans and execution are 2 different things. Sometimes executing just isn't feasible. 

1 thing they might try though is sending emergency transport to local shelters with emergency services helping to get the word out. 

4 minutes ago, Nibor said:

I'm not sure why there are comments on the radar appearance. Looks to me like Ian is about to close off its eye again and the band heading north east looks formidable.

This is one of the healthiest looking eyewalls I have seen on Radar in quite some time.  In fact, this may rank up there as one of the better ones I have seen on radar period. 

53 minutes ago, Dbullsfan22 said:

So after all the noise and hoopla when push comes to shove, Tampa not even in the cone as we get down to the wire… chalk another W up for history and probability, but I guarantee next year when this happens again, Myself and everyone else will get sucked back in to believing maybe this is the one. 

The truth is: One day it will be

12 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Just goes to show how unpredictable they are. I mentioned in the other thread that Hurricane Matthew had an EWRC where the inner eye wall bounced around the outer eye wall like one of those old DVD screen savers for what must have been for over 24 hours. Ian seems to have completed this one in around 8-10 hours.

I remember during Matthew (I think), we saw essentially perfect conditions for Hurricane development: 

Two things I remember

1) We saw continual ERCs

&

2) The ERCs were relatively rapid and resulted in explosive RI after.  

6 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Looks like a classic EWRC to me. This one may take some time due to the large size of the outer eyewall. Hard to say if it will have time to recover by the time it makes landfall.

The way it is going, it appears to be moving for a direct hit on S FL. 

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Interesting that guidance which has Ian move into the Atlantic re-intensify. Conditions: Favorable -> unfavorable --> favorable.

 

Good shot at this crossing FL only to re-emerge in the Atlantic and attempt to ride up the coast. 

17 hours ago, USCG RS said:

Shear doing wonders.. 

https://longisland.news12.com/possible-tornado-touches-down-near-mattituck

Shear doing wonders.. 

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

 

Haven't heard wind howl like that in a longggg time. Torrential rain. Nearly constant lightning for a time.. But very little thunder. 

Heck of a lightning show right now in Middle Island. 

13 minutes ago, justinj said:

Rain with some pingers mixed in. Middle island 

Ditto - Middle Island as well. 

33 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

32/20 which is concerning. If temperatures fall to 28-29F there would be significant icing. 

Temp dropped from 31.9 to 30.3 per home station. 

7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think everyone  in this subforum is 5 inches or less for sure with the 5 near SWF and 1 or less near NYC

Thanks for the answer.. I should have clarified... Thoughts on ice accums? 

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The SPC SREF as far as snow amount mean is something between the NAM/RGEM in the LHV and S CT...for FRZ RAIN its fairly ominous for the metro and has notably high confidence across all of WRN LI W-SW into CNJ  and the metro

Thoughts on accums?