USCG RS

I would post pics.. But I can't post them here due to file size. 

Just now, jm1220 said:

Should've stayed in Huntington. I have plenty here but I'm sure there's 4-5" more there. I've been battling subsidence here for a while. 

Where'd you wind up setting up shop? 

13 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Lucky you.  Spent over an hour doing basically nothing here.  Except for the wind which was howling to feed into the surrounding bands.

Unfortunately these bands create subsidence. The most annoying part.

13 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

It's impossible to measure with all the drifts but I'd say about a 11-12 inches in Whitestone. The good thing about the drifts is that it left some relatively bare ground in spots for the dog to do his business.

That weenie band bear Boston is absurd. That's an all timer for them.

Yeah they're getting smoked. 

2 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Could be from Sag east if this keeps up. 

The H5 is trying to close south of LI, which looks to have a good shot, especially considering the back building and the winds increasing. If that happens... Just about everyone should be happy. 

4 minutes ago, Shades said:

Not your typical coastal storm in that the low pressure is elongated, less centralized at our latitude, which may be working in our favor for coastal areas. If this system were more consolidated, with a more definitive center (or core if you will - thinking of the tight eye-features many winter coastal nor'easters exhibit), then the precip would also likely be more wrapped-in, and the dynamics more compact. That being said, it's still in its maturing phase, for SNE.

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yeah I spoke too soon lol. Back to heavy here in Long Beach with this band trying to form. 

The SW most low is attempting to take over. Given the pushing back west of banding and the winds kicking up, it just may... 

24 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Hampton Bays will see 2'

100%

9 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

goood. goooood. let the hate flow through you

If you have hate in your heart, let it out!

1 minute ago, Nibor said:

Early closed off h5 low and earlier capture bringing the storm closer to the coast. But there could still be issues if the low is broad.

We are in for a ride

10 minutes ago, Nibor said:

That looks more Neutral to me.. no? 

43 minutes ago, Blizzardo said:

I just said in the other thread its coming into north jersey pretty good and it hasn't even started yet

(there is more than one other thread )

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

700mb FGEN has developed over JFK-ACY-ILG

That's all you need to know for the rest of this storm brother. 

43 minutes ago, Rjay said:

 

Wayy west

44 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

The stupid thing should be west with a look like this. 

42 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Insane isn't it.. 

Rememver how I said I was going down with my ship? See... I'm a rescue swimmer. So I needed to do so to rescue...

2 minutes ago, dseagull said:

They weren't, and I'll eat crow when the fat lady sings her tune.  Going to have some further praise towards the GFS if the signal was indeed first recognized by the least trusted models prior to 48 hours.  Going to be an interesting year end report by many forecasters.   

Storm is bombing out.  Let's enjoy. 

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

The gfs was wrong the entire time.  The reason the models are shifting east is bc of modeled convection over the Gulf Stream. 

Like I said, I am going down with the ship, however, I am not buying the East shifts. 

Given H3/5/7... This has a KU hit all over it. 

8 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I'm not writing this off either. I'm just reacting to the model runs today. These weren't just small bumps east. 

No they weren't. Unfortunately. 

Just now, Metasequoia said:

I suspect this isn't the last model surprise. NOAA might be right afterall about New England forecast.

This is not over by any means. TBH. Its close. Perhaps I am just going down the ship here, but I am still not writing this off. 

3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

this was worse for me personally

That was not only a Forecasting nightmare... I still have Emergency Management nightmares from that.

1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Can’t. Company tests for those.

This is why I work for myself. 

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Did you did BOX's and?  I'd be losing my mind too.  

https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

1 minute ago, Metasequoia said:

NE folks were hoping for a record breaking storm, so I guess 12 to 18 inches seems lame to them.

Yeah - that is why I actually just pulled my post. I misunderstood what they were saying. 

BOX AFD is all in however. Heck of write up. 

Just now, Rjay said:

This is one of the largest rug pulls I've ever seen on models the day of a storm.  

Watch 00z swing back with heavy hits across the board. 

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Too bad we dont live at 20,000 feet

20,000 feet controls the sfc though. What happens at the sfc is really controlled by what takes place at the upper levels, with rather rare exception. 

Edit - The biggest issue I have normally seen against this has to do with the time translate to the sfc. But, this lag is normally not that long. In this particular instance, it may actually make some changes regarding sensible weather. 

1 minute ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said:

Keep chasing models and not comparing them to OBS

 

If you compare the 18z NAM with obs, the trough is essentially Neutral vs somewhat positive (on the model). As such, I would take the 18z and shift it West by 50 or so miles. 

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

exactly. if I was solely basing this off of the mid and upper levels, I would go 10-16" or even 12-18". PVA is aimed right at the metro, the 700mb closes S of LI, and the jet dynamics are nearly perfect

however, there's some weird stuff going on at the surface. I'm not discounting it at all, it could be right, but I just can't be confident in a depiction like that

If you look at H25/3/5/7.... This is a beast for the area. This is why I am still thinking that this will be a pretty hard hit around here.

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this really all comes down to the consolidation of the trough and then the handling of the dual low. the first can be handled somewhat well by modeling, but the second is really a no-go. some models have to parameterize the convection, which leads to assumptions being made, and everything goes south very quickly

I really just think that we're just going to see how this one plays out over the next 24 hours. I have no more confidence than I did yesterday, if anything, even less

this is not to say that these changes will be for the better, they could be for the worse, too! we're just not going to have a good idea until we can see what the system is doing in real time

If I had to take a stab at it, I would say 8-14" for the metro, but this is low confidence and I can't even put much weight behind it

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The few cases we’ve seen in the last decade where this was modeled the end result was often in the middle where there was a secondary low but you didn’t see the massive pulling of the precip field with it 

When there is a double low that actually develops, why does this happen? I have actually never understood the physic of this.