USCG RS

In theory, local emergency management has a plan for this. That withstanding, plans and execution are 2 different things. Sometimes executing just isn't feasible. 1 thing they might try though is sending emergency transport to local shelters with emergency services helping to get the word out.

This is one of the healthiest looking eyewalls I have seen on Radar in quite some time. In fact, this may rank up there as one of the better ones I have seen on radar period.

The truth is: One day it will be

I remember during Matthew (I think), we saw essentially perfect conditions for Hurricane development: Two things I remember 1) We saw continual ERCs & 2) The ERCs were relatively rapid and resulted in explosive RI after.

The way it is going, it appears to be moving for a direct hit on S FL.

Good shot at this crossing FL only to re-emerge in the Atlantic and attempt to ride up the coast.

https://longisland.news12.com/possible-tornado-touches-down-near-mattituck

Shear doing wonders..

Haven't heard wind howl like that in a longggg time. Torrential rain. Nearly constant lightning for a time.. But very little thunder.

Heck of a lightning show right now in Middle Island.

Ditto - Middle Island as well.

Temp dropped from 31.9 to 30.3 per home station.

Thanks for the answer.. I should have clarified... Thoughts on ice accums?

Thoughts on accums?

I think the tri state is going to have to watch for the potential of Zr. Pretty ripe set up for ice imo.

Yeah, I've said this elsewhere. Models tend to erode surface cold too quickly and not quickly enough for upper levels.

31F/~1". Side streets just started becoming covered. Middle Island

If I got a got through that class... I promise you can as well

Yup. This was the meso LP the models were picking up on yesterday.

There is still good bit of precip to go for the metro and LI. That meso low looks to be providing just enough lift to give the area some potential issues. Going to need to be careful for the next few hours.

Coast is going to have to be careful here. SR Mesos seem to want to try and spin up a weak LP. If the cold front is far enough off shore, it could actually enhance precip just enough to provide some icing...

Fog eats snow like a hungry linebacker after practice. I have seen fog legitimately wipe out snowpack of over a foot inside of 3 hours.

I think this actually has a higher ice accretion potential than many are giving it credit for. Low level cold air is going to drain down to the coast pretty well while the mid-levels are likely going to remain torched. We still have a considerable snowpack on the ground, and even with rain it's not going to completely disappear. Likewise, the cold air really means business here. I was originally thinking this would be either rain or snow for the area a few days ago, but I am genuinely concerned about a good bit of ice accretion here.

Transmission lines going down is a grid issue.

With ice accumulations for the tri-state and into SE upstate NY. Granted the FV3 is more bullish otherwise.