MillvilleWx

The NAM's still want absolutely nothing to do with the coastal for the area up through Mon 21z. Nam Nest is a massive FU to SE PA too and all the fun is north of the turnpike. The 12km NAM is ramping up the CCB to the north, but it'll be way too late for here unless we see a Euro-like vort piece rotate down later in the run.

If anyone is curious, the 12z HRRR and Nam Nest are already too light on snowfall compared to the current obs. Might catch up later, but it's too light right now even using Kuchera.

My niece is out enjoying her first ever snow today .

Hopefully they can patch all the craters with all the caving Enjoy the snow and have a cold one for me please!

Will be keeping an eye a bit on your obs. My sister and her family live up the hill in Carney, very close to Cub Hill. Off Northwind Road. It's my old home I grew up in. It's always 2-3 degrees colder up that way. I'll be comparing your obs as my meteorology loving nephew will be taking snow measurements for his first time today!

May I enter sir? 16.7" on 1.36

Hey everyone! Here's a rough idea for my forecast for many in the sub-forum. Yes, it's Mid Atlantic centric, but it still encapsulates a lot of the sub that will be most impacted. The highest area could be low balling if the deform rots overhead. Will be a crazy day tomorrow. I might do a quick and dirty map update for tomorrow as well with more forum coverage. Enjoy the snow later today!

Here's my Only Forecast Map Could be a little high on the southern piece, but from looking at guidance, this is my estimate for the storm. This also doesn't include up to a 0.1" of ice accretion tonight into Monday morning for Central MD and southern PA

Night vision goggles run out of batteries? Looks like your main show will be later this morning and afternoon. I'd grab a nice pancake breakfast and a cup of coffee while you wait

This trailing piece is definitely something everyone from Carroll to the DE will want to watch out for. It's a nice low-level vort to provide modest ascent with a saturated boundary layer This trailer could easily drop 2-3" of fresh powder prior to the storm shutting off. It's been on quite a few models the last 36 hrs, so it has merit. Might not be solved until close to end game though, so patience will be a virtue. Hope you cash with 5-8" over there!

One of the pieces of guidance I like to look at and others should too is the HRW WRF-NSSL which does a fairly decent job in the mesoscale and isn't as prone to crazy convective feedback issues like some of the CAM's. It's a pretty areawide 5-8" through 00z Tuesday with more snow afterwards, but the run ends since it only goes out to 48 hrs. It has you in 4-6" fairly easily. I'd be curious to see it's 12z run. I'm dissecting the HREF next and seeing what kind of signals I can deduce in terms if WAA snow, then coastal in a probabilistic sense. I'm going to try to make a rough map forecast, albeit late, for what I think might occur. I still want to see a picture of your house in the snow

The RGEM is just a more intense version of the Euro. Has a much more aggressive CCB over E PA with extension down to I-70 latitude. The fact that and the Euro are that consistent with each other might be hinting closer to an expected result. It’s still not a bad run with pretty much all the sub-forum in WSW criteria snowfall. Will be a wintry scene on Sunday and Monday. .

This is very true. I'd fly home for those suckers

I think @paweather @pasnownut @AllWeather would need a cigarette if the RGEM verified.

For the people 850mb Height 700mb Height

7H and 85H low development on the RGEM is total NSFW stuff. I might need @stormtracker permission to post something this naughty @psuhoffman Bro, you're gonna need a cigarette looking at the precip panels

That's exactly what I mentioned to @frd above. It was certainly better than the parent, but man oh man, that looked ugly. There wasn't even anything resembling a pure deformation axis anywhere except maybe coastal NJ. It was weak sauce. That would be brutal for NWS offices in the NE, especially Mount Holly and CTP

It would be a major coup, but I think the NAM may be having issues with the transfer idea. I will say, despite the NAM Nest looking better than the parent, it's still well short of every other guidance. Hopefully it's too rambunctious on the dry air intrusion within the mid-levels and it moistens up towards game time. It was paltry otherwise. Even the 85H wind field sucked for boundary layer moisture penetration further inland. Certainly on an island, but it can be a hint on things other guidance might miss. I'd hold off giving it too much weight beyond the WAA piece.

I'm heading to Twitter to DM him on what WPC preferred blend is so far for guidance because it looks like they are using ECMWF/EC Ens/GFS considering the surface forecast.

Not saying much. If the NAM is remotely right, it will be a pretty large fail with the rest of numerical guidance. Hopefully it's not on to something for everyone's sake. It's pretty crap until almost the PA turnpike

The NAM is in a whole other world in the upper levels and it's low placement is directly over the convection in the Atlantic. Not even the HRRR is that ridiculous. I mentioned this morning, it's either going to score a major coup and every other piece of guidance will be off the rails, or it's on an island won't come back until it's basically beginning the transfer. The WAA piece is at least still pretty solid.

65/10 with winds gusting to 40 mph

Couldn't agree more. This will be a rapidly developing cyclone with intense 7H dynamics as shown by models for several days now. You're going to have snowballs falling from the sky considering the massive lift across the region. CCB love is so hard to fully pin down, and the GFS/CMC also had a bit of a TROWAL signature on Monday night as the storm begins to occlude. I'd love to see the theta-E analysis and satellite when it gets to that time. Wish I was home for this one man. Cheers to large fatties falling while ripping a few fatties

The transfer was clean and very similar to the overnight runs of the Euro. One of the things that would make this better is if the 700mb low were to be about 25-50 miles further south. The deformation axis still gets down efficiently into the northern and northeast portion of the sub-forum with heavy snow for several hours north of I-70 and further NE. Even to the south, there would be high ratio fluff that would fall for hours, slowly accumulating with a final storm total of 8-12" from I-66 to Howard Co. Then 10-15" with local to 20" to the north. It was a great run for @mappy and @psuhoffman as it held serve from previous runs, and was in line with the GFS/CMC. One of the biggest differences from previous runs is it actually upped total precip within the deformation zone, so amounts are a touch higher north of I-70. It was closer to a bigger run for the whole sub-forum so chalk another up to a slight positive trend.