MillvilleWx

Trading in the snow shoes for flip flops eh I hope to get a job at LWX or WPC in the next 2-3 years. Will probably live near Sterling if LWX and Clarksburg on Parrs Ridge if WPC. Fingers crossed, but I really love the area where I grew up. I feel you 100% there

I'd say 2" for FDK proper and then 2-4" for areas just north like Walkersville up to near Thurmont. 4-8" around Emmitsburg. Someone like @losetoa6 and @CatoctinRN probably have the best shot to reach the 4-6" mark with the Catoctins like Camp David near 8"

That's actually my in-laws but I call them mom and dad. My parents are at the eastern shore, for now and they have their own little location sig They are moving to Florida in 6-8 months though, so I'll have to move them in the future.

Considering the current radar, orographic orientation of the area, 85H and 7H moisture layer, and weak ascent due to 850-700mb frontogen, this is the area I’d say is in good shape for 2-4” additional inches minimum, mainly on the southern edge. 4-8” is possible across the northern tier, especially north-central and northwest Carroll, northern Frederick county, and northern Washington County. .

There's a bit of 85H frontogen pivoting through NE MD right now as the 850mb low has strengthened in the last 3 hrs. The 700mb moisture transport is wrapped to the I-70 corridor with obviously deeper mid-level RH across the the northern tier. There's an area of orographic enhancement out west with some modest convergence happening along the Catoctin front and the hills out near 81. That snow will likely continue for several hours until the low pivots NE and we lose the moisture transport within the boundary layer. I think 12+" is all but a certainty for the northern reaches of Frederick and Washington counties.

@mappy The Millersville University webcam sunk to sub 1/4 mile vis in that band when it was in Lancaster County. It's gonna dump. It's 2-3"/hr rates with it

My sister just north of Royersford up there is in a driving sleet right now. She said it’s so heavy, it hurts to go outside. It’s literally right on the doorstep of snowing though. The easterlies will keep her in sleet though for awhile. .

Snow ratio is dependent on low to mid level boundary layer temps, specifically between 850-600mb where moisture transport occurs in a mid-latitude cyclone. The greater the lift within the aforementioned zone, the better chance for more well defined flakes. Temperatures between -12 to -18C are the prime range for ice crystallization, coupled with lift to generate larger, well defined ice structures called dendrites. They are light in water vapor content, but have large area bases that tend to stack (accumulate) more efficiently. There’s all kinds of different flake structures depending on temp profiles, lift, and depth of the moisture layer. Today we likely saw a lot of needles in light precip which are very light, small, and take a lot to accumulate over time. Out west, there was a bit more forcing across the higher terrain and along the isentropic ascent created by upscale troughing out west. So even if the snow was light to moderate in nature for hours on end, flake structure was likely fairly decent, allowing to max accumulation despite a lack of prolific rates. .

I’ve said this once before, and I will say it again. Please don’t EVER bring these images and disco of that storm in this forum. That was one of the worst Christmases ever watching that storm slip away. This gives me worse PTSD than that other storm that shall not be named. .

I grew up in Baltimore and live in Midland, TX now. I lived in Baltimore/MoCo area for basically 28 years, so I know how Miller B’s work in climo. The models were not showing an improbable western motion considering the UL evolution of the 5H and 7H levels as both were displaying a more southern transition latitude which would invoke a capture of the low level circulation and force it back westward between Norfolk and OCMD. It’s happened plenty of other times. The storm is still going to stall, just at a further north latitude due to a late capture as the 5H low and 7H inflection over the OH Valley went further north than most global guidance was indicating. However, the ensemble guidance did keep that within the envelope of reason, so there was concern for a northern trend always on the table based on both climo and NWP signals. I never poopoo observational analysis since it is very important with regards to trends, but you can’t base it during long range forecasting with time frames of significance to EM’s and DOT workers for prep times and decision making. That’s where NWP comes in and inside 72 hrs is when you utilize Observational trends and NWP to your advantage. I’ve seen your take on modern NWP, and as someone who analyzes the statistical variance and overall scoring after UA and surface reanalysis, you don’t give NWP nearly enough credit for what it produces. Analogs are why Midland nailed the end of 2020 historic snowstorm out here and we blew away our neighboring offices. I’m a huge fan of CIPS and it’s database. Your expertise in regional climo and historical data keeping will absolutely help you in varying setups and it is appreciated during short term trends, but it will absolutely not work with decision making at a local and state level where 72-96 hrs is necessary for planning and staging. Being overly prepared is better than the alternative, despite the respite it might incur from up top in government settings. I would never mute you for any reason unless you actually disrespected me on a personal level or are attacking me, so you’ll never get the mute. Hopefully you can cash this afternoon on more snow as I bathe under sun and the typical cirrus. I hope to get back East and extend my career while improving my forecasting abilities and helping the general public. I also want to get back to the area I grew up in, or at least within the Northeast US vicinity. Enjoy the snow .

Anyone trying to bank much on the coastal south of I-70 was definitely in prayer mode. The RGEM runs were fun in a cosmic way and it was great to joke around for a time, but unless other guidance started showing something similar, I just remained skeptical and cautionary, waiting to see if it kept it up and others joined in. I thought the NAMs, the NSSL, the HRRR this morning, the ARW, the NMM, and the HREF would start to come around to the globals but they have shown the exact opposite. It would be a brutal beat for the local NWS offices, and that’s my main reason I feel down. If you haven’t worked in a NWS office, you don’t realize the amount of trust you lose busting a forecast like this and you get berated from all different directions and have to re-earn trust again. It would suck and I would feel for my colleagues. People are stupid and suck and don’t understand weather and it makes the matter worse. I’m also still recovering from a back injury. I’m much better than a week ago, but I’m not 100%. I am irritated of how this year started and I have other personal stuff with family I’m not gonna talk about. It’s a tough time for me and seeing my friends here get pasted would make me happy. Hopefully everyone enjoys the snow today. I know I’d be out driving around in it, having an absolute blast. It’s such a joy for me and I miss it and I miss home. .

Might be logging off for the rest of the event. I have a ton of friends who work at Mount Holly and CTP. If the NAM's and the latest Hi Res are right, they are going to get absolutely hammered by the public. It would be a terrible time to score a coup for the NAM. If my map busts, oh well. If theirs does, they take a beating. What a massive kick in the groin if this model suite is right.

If that ends up being the location of the 7H low, I wouldn't even bother with tomorrow. That's way too north for everyone here. Flakes will fly, but wouldn't amount to anything.

Yup. Take what you can get and hope. I'm glad y'all are enjoying some snow today!

The NAM's still want absolutely nothing to do with the coastal for the area up through Mon 21z. Nam Nest is a massive FU to SE PA too and all the fun is north of the turnpike. The 12km NAM is ramping up the CCB to the north, but it'll be way too late for here unless we see a Euro-like vort piece rotate down later in the run.

If anyone is curious, the 12z HRRR and Nam Nest are already too light on snowfall compared to the current obs. Might catch up later, but it's too light right now even using Kuchera.

My niece is out enjoying her first ever snow today .

Hopefully they can patch all the craters with all the caving Enjoy the snow and have a cold one for me please!

Will be keeping an eye a bit on your obs. My sister and her family live up the hill in Carney, very close to Cub Hill. Off Northwind Road. It's my old home I grew up in. It's always 2-3 degrees colder up that way. I'll be comparing your obs as my meteorology loving nephew will be taking snow measurements for his first time today!

May I enter sir? 16.7" on 1.36

Hey everyone! Here's a rough idea for my forecast for many in the sub-forum. Yes, it's Mid Atlantic centric, but it still encapsulates a lot of the sub that will be most impacted. The highest area could be low balling if the deform rots overhead. Will be a crazy day tomorrow. I might do a quick and dirty map update for tomorrow as well with more forum coverage. Enjoy the snow later today!

Here's my Only Forecast Map Could be a little high on the southern piece, but from looking at guidance, this is my estimate for the storm. This also doesn't include up to a 0.1" of ice accretion tonight into Monday morning for Central MD and southern PA

Night vision goggles run out of batteries? Looks like your main show will be later this morning and afternoon. I'd grab a nice pancake breakfast and a cup of coffee while you wait

This trailing piece is definitely something everyone from Carroll to the DE will want to watch out for. It's a nice low-level vort to provide modest ascent with a saturated boundary layer This trailer could easily drop 2-3" of fresh powder prior to the storm shutting off. It's been on quite a few models the last 36 hrs, so it has merit. Might not be solved until close to end game though, so patience will be a virtue. Hope you cash with 5-8" over there!