WxWatcher007

It does look more defined now. Should definitely be classified. I do wonder whether the deep convection east of the current center could trigger a reformation or wrap upshear with additional time and frictional convergence near landfall.

Wish I had more time to post in here but I’ve been crazy busy. I’m guessing there will be low level recon rather than a survey tomorrow given the structure and landfall approach. To me, this is as blaring a signal for a hyperactive season as we can probably see at long range. I agree with @NorthHillsWx that seeing a ULAC is really uncommon, especially early in the season, but keep in mind that shear still kept 90L from developing in the Gulf not that long ago. It is very interesting to see the pattern over PTC One and the Gulf. Every part of the basin is primed to take off once climo becomes more favorable. The Gulf is really a spot to watch later.

2. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: Another broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system early next week while it moves slowly northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

80 here at 1am, 81/70 at ALB. A cool 71.3° at my EH home station.

Last year I must’ve screwed up because I had them and when I cut the grass early in the summer season they didn’t come back. This year so far they’ve been great. Really harkens back to the warm summer evenings of my childhood. I’m in Albany this week and I can confirm it’s a blowtorch. Still 82° here in the city.

The heat index definitely performed here.

Fell short of starting the heat wave at home. 89 (88.7°) while HFD got to 90°. Big dews though. Oppressive.

Yeah my station is holding between 87-88.

Mesonets gone wild up there

We need this.

95° was always my bar for big heat. That, or 100° HI. Becoming a scorchah. 84.1/72 at my EH station while HFD is at 84/72 HI 90. HFD was tracking ahead of me for about an hour.

*

The MOS post set me off this morning I’m not home, but my station in East Hartford usually tracks very closely with HFD to the SW. Usually within a degree or two. It’s the coolest station in the area even though a few others are also high quality. I’m about two hours ahead of yesterday’s pace.

I don’t think the failure would be in the Euro way overshooting the 103-105 for Thursday-Friday it once had. Anyone with any knowledge knew that was likely bogus. The SW advection never looked right. Ridge placement a little far north, etc.. But if the guidance which was honking legitimate mid-upper 90s late week and a 5-6 day heat wave trends to a reality of only upper 80s all week—as the week is literally underway—lol that’s a bust. At any rate this is all probably cart before the horse. We’ll just see how this plays out.

I originally had Thursday-Friday in the 90s at the coast with Saturday possible but least likely. It will be interesting to see how much, if at all, the modeled heat cut back does translate in reality. I’m at .44” of rain on the month. Very dry all of a sudden but I don’t expect that to continue in July and August when we’re most convectively active.

It'd be an epic model failure if anything close to that occurred imo. Epic.

The “Secondary Gulf Potential” is now a lemon in the BoC.

We don’t do cold down here.

If BDL can * it’s way to 90 today, it damn well better hit a hundo on Thursday or Friday

Advisories coming at 5pm

Was just about to post. This is a good use of the PTC designation.

That was my thought originally too…that it’d take until Sunday or Monday for the break to occur, but I suppose we’re trending toward a shorter technical heat wave for now.

Obviously unlikely

GFS gone wild but it basically spins up everything from the CAG.