WxWatcher007

June 2024 Derecho Kev and @Torch Tiger called it Sunday.

What a wild night. What a wild week. I was damn sure going to be here for this one. Watched a big light show and some possible lowering as the storms got close and the watched Hartford’s lights get obscured by an absolute torrent of rain and brief wind. Not as strong as other locations, but legit.

Willimantic crushed per reports

I thought it was faster than the NAM to latch onto the northern CT potential today, but it really did end up a nowcast until those storms bowed in NY.

Holy That’s incredible

Great show. Wind was strongest early. It was shaking the car at one point. Tree tops swaying.

Tremendous light show to my west.

PDS severe warning in central PA The National Weather Service in Binghamton has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Lackawanna County in northeastern Pennsylvania... Central Luzerne County in northeastern Pennsylvania... * Until 700 PM EDT. * At 617 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Mountain Top, or 11 miles north of Hazleton, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. * Locations impacted include... Ashley, Bear Creek, Dorrance, Slocum, Preston, Sugar Notch, Nuangola, Warrior Run, Laurel Run, and Lehigh. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. This storm is producing widespread wind damage across central and southern Luzerne. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows!

The storms west are taking shape and have produced some wind reports.

Not sure—with any of these really. It’s all about the environment once they develop.

If it’s in the MDR, mog hard lol

Giga aggressive is a good way to put it, though I assume giga=uber for us olds I’m going to be skeptical of high end development with SAL and the graveyard lurking, but let’s see if this can organize in the next few days.

I just think Climo will keep 94L & 95L in check a bit. Maybe enough to get a name, but not enough to become a major hurricane. Shear or at the very least trade winds will probably be a factor in the Caribbean. Today’s runs on 95L were interesting though. Debby probably arrives late July/early August. All speculation of course.

Well this place is active I feel Debby

Yikes. Happy Hour in Europe.

Wheeee

Derecho incoming?

Where do you see that?

Slight risk expanded into SNE. ...NY/PA into Mid Atlantic and southern New England... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving trough over WI. This feature will track across the Great Lakes region today and into the northeast states tonight. Ahead of the system, strong heating is occurring from parts of NY/PA eastward into the Mid Atlantic region and southern New England. A diffuse surface boundary extends from northern PA to coastal New England, with temperatures likely to rise into the 80s/90s to the south. This will result in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Current indications are that storms will form over OH/western PA by early afternoon and spread eastward through the day. Damaging winds appear to be the main concern. Storms may track across southern New England and to the NJ/DE/MD coast during the evening with a continued severe threat.

I’ve missed a microburst in Albany and two supercells over my house in the last week. I’ve cornered the market on pain.

There’s a real robust signal on the EPS and GEFS for something to pop with that second MDR wave next week.

Too soon if you’re talking about high end stuff. Climo rules even in the most favorable of years. An Elsa (not track, just development case) would be a best case imo. This is an anomalously favorable window though for something in the MDR.

As skeptical as I am on instability and the northward extent of an MCS, this does feel like a nowcast to me. The SPC is hesitant to upgrade probs, but at least for areas like Philly and NJ I think it’s warranted.

Agree. NAM was robust but this seems like a southern special to me.