WxWatcher007

All I had to do was leave the state. Absolute depraved heart ruthlessness

That’s a good catch. FL winds are not as impressive.

Recon finding some TS force SFMR here. It could get a name if sufficiently organized.

I am never going to get over missing a banner week for severe imby

Island roulette is tricky business though. Any wobble especially on a smaller storm like this and you’re flying out for TS winds.

Location, location, location Beryl and 96L were given a tremendous runway by virtue of coming off Africa pretty far south and being embedded in the monsoon trough. Even a few degrees further north and it’s a much different story. Makes this all the more extraordinary. https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16split/movies/goes16split.html

I never had a chance. Going to miss another event in Albany.

Very early. Might make later less robust.

Probably the most impactful strike since 2004?

This is robust to say the least

Umm, let’s just talk weather, please. Extrapolated pressure down to 963.3mb. Awaiting center dropsonde.

Keep in mind that’s an extrapolated pressure per the VDM. That said, it’s probably dropping like a rock still.

Yeah I’m fine with it either way. After the last week I think folks around here know to take these kind of days seriously—at least you’d think.

Meanwhile the SPC keeps talking about supercells in Maine lol

Enhanced on the latest SPC update.

I’d bet the opposite. I’m thinking there’s at least 1 EC threat and a fair amount of remnant activity. I guess we’ll see. Beryl continues to be in rarified territory becoming the first major hurricane of the 2024 season.

Per dropsonde, the central pressure is down ~1mb since the VDM.

The OG of invests in an extremely active late June basin is worthy of a thread too, though there may not be as much post activity here. A broad area of low pressure has traversed the Yucatán and has now entered the Bay of Campeche. This is the third invest to reach the BoC and threaten the Mexican Gulf coast. There’s not a lot of time for this to organize into a significant wind producer, but once again heavy rains are expected. Recon is scheduled to investigate later today. 1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL94): An area of low pressure located over the southern portion of the Bay of Campeche is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development, and a short-lived tropical depression could form before the system moves inland over Mexico on Monday morning. Interests along the Gulf Coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall associated with the area of low pressure will continue to affect portions of Central America and Mexico through early next week. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

While most of the focus will be on Major Hurricane Beryl the next few days, the highly anomalous environment that triggered Beryl’s development is also in place for newly designated Invest 96L. This could very well be another robust tropical cyclone that threatens the Antilles by midweek. Depending on the overall ridging over the Atlantic next week, this one could gain latitude as it tracks through the Caribbean in a greater fashion than Beryl—if it survives the trek. 2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL96): Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle part of this week while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

First VDM Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 11:41Z Agency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5300 Storm Name: Beryl Storm Number & Year: 02 in 2024 (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 1 Observation Number: 06 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. ) A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 11:12:10Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 10.49N 53.76W B. Center Fix Location: 435 statute miles (700 km) to the ESE (115°) from Bridgetown, Barbados. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,868m (9,409ft) at 700mb D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 969mb (28.62 inHg) E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 170° at 13kts (From the S at 15mph) F. Eye Character: Closed G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 94kts (108.2mph) I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NNW (335°) of center fix at 11:08:30Z J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 54° at 108kts (From the NE at 124.3mph) K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NNW (335°) of center fix at 11:08:30Z L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 107kts (123.1mph) M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the SE (141°) of center fix at 11:14:00Z N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 227° at 101kts (From the SW at 116.2mph) O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the SE (139°) of center fix at 11:15:00Z P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft) Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft) R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F) R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature S. Fix Level: 700mb T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 108kts (~ 124.3mph) which was observed 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NNW (335°) from the flight level center at 11:08:30Z General Note About Vortex Messages: - SFMR and flight level winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (The National Hurricane Center's advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)

Thanks—as you know, always respect your thoughts. We know that the usual June and July sloppy named storm means nothing for the season, but seeing Beryl do this in the context of what has already been a busy season (even if the other invests weren’t named) is a gigantic red flag for what likely lies ahead. We’re not there yet, but I’m increasingly concerned that the Caribbean and possible shear won’t meaningfully slow this down. In a departure from the 12z run, the Euro keeps the buzzsaw going after a brief weakening to take this into Belize/Yucatán before a final hit in the most active tropical hot spot on the planet right now on the Gulf coast of Mexico. Caveats galore, folks: GFS And the newest Euro

The shear will be there, it’s just a question of the magnitude.