WxWatcher007

Easy to do with a 58 mile wide ragged eye. It’s even larger than it was earlier.

Based on the recon data, I think it’s finally starting to intensify. May be close to hurricane strength based on latest dropsonde and recon data.

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 22:01ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5301Storm Name: BerylStorm Number: 02 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 29Observation Number: 22 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 22Z on the 7th day of the month Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb Coordinates: 26.5N 95.3W Location: 141 statute miles (227 km) to the ENE (74°) from Brownsville, TX, USA. Marsden Square: 082 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1000mb -66m (-217 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level. 993mb (29.33 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 25.6°C(78.1°F) 24.5°C (76°F) 190° (from the S) 64 knots (74 mph) 925mb 622m (2,041 ft) 23.6°C(74.5°F) 21.7°C (71°F) 195° (from the SSW) 63 knots (72 mph) 850mb 1,359m(4,459 ft) 19.4°C(66.9°F) 19.0°C (66°F) 190° (from the S) 63 knots (72 mph) 700mb 3,024m(9,921 ft) Other data not available. Information About Radiosonde: - Launch Time: 21:43Z - About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction. Remarks Section... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in maximum wind band. Highest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 26.50N 95.26W - Time: 21:43:49Z Lowest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 26.55N 95.23W - Time: 21:47:36Z Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 190° (from the S) - Wind Speed: 67 knots (77 mph) Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 200° (from the SSW) - Wind Speed: 59 knots (68 mph) - Depth of Sounding: From 711mb to 992mb Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding: - Lowest 150m: 157 gpm - 7 gpm (515 geo. feet - 23 geo. feet) - Wind Direction: 190° (from the S) - Wind Speed: 69 knots (79 mph) Sounding Software Version: AEV 30407 Part B: Data for Significant Levels... Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels Level Air Temperature Dew Point 993mb (Surface) 25.6°C (78.1°F) 24.5°C (76°F) 850mb 19.4°C (66.9°F) 19.0°C (66°F) 762mb 17.0°C (62.6°F) 17.0°C (63°F) Significant Wind Levels Level Wind Direction Wind Speed 993mb (Surface) 190° (from the S) 64 knots (74 mph) 981mb 190° (from the S) 70 knots (81 mph) 881mb 190° (from the S) 60 knots (69 mph) 850mb 190° (from the S) 63 knots (72 mph) 770mb 220° (from the SW) 56 knots (64 mph) Dropsonde Diagram 0102030401000925850700Temperature (°C)Pressure Level (mb)Dew PointAirWind (kts)Beryl ()Mission 29 - AF301Time: 21:43Z on 7th day of monthObservation Number: 22Location: 26.50N 95.26W Lines Points Diagram Type: Skew-TStüve Line Thickness: Point Width: Font Setting:

First evidence IMO from recon that winds are responding to the gradual organization. @cptcatz beat me to it. Also had an unflagged 59 & 60kt SFMR. Came in heavier rain though so could be contaminated. Down to 986mb on the latest pass. Cropped YouTube video of the most recent band.

Cropped YouTube video

Taken about ten minutes ago with the latest band. Came together and fell apart quickly—as is usually the case with these tropical cells.

Just took this about ten minutes ago. Came together and fell apart fast.

It’s a ragged look on IR and radar. Nothing really impressive. Just a gradual increase in organization and drop in pressure.

The 12z runs Again, I think the HAFS & HMON are underplaying the current structure. HWRF is **clearly** an outlier however.

Hmm. 12z HWRF really goes to town. It’s at 97kt at landfall. I guess it still shows that if everything comes together a major is still plausible even if highly unlikely.

The last VDM from recon had an eye that was 48nm (55mi) wide and was open in the NW. Since then Beryl’s inner core has tightened and is probably ~30-35mi now. It’s still not a solid eyewall, but it’s moving toward that absent a convective collapse. I was skeptical of a major yesterday and deeply skeptical today. I do think the 12z hurricane guidance (still waiting on HWRF, which has been great so far) is underplaying things with how they initialized a clearly less organized core than we see currently. Dry air is still an issue. That’s a critical issue. Next few hours are important. Still leaning high end 1/low end 2.

GFS has remnants from Beryl in the region next week. Haven’t been following that too closely. It is 86/76 here in Bay City at 11am lol Edit: scratch that—88/76 at 11am

Despite dry air still causing issues in the northern and eastern segments of the storm, the trend toward a walled off core continues on radar. Also seeing better spiral banding.

Nothing Earth shattering, but watching Beryl’s first real band roll in. Hot and humid morning lol.

The way it should be

Agree with all of that. It’d be a feat if Beryl were able to get to a low end 3. Still pretty high probabilities for modest RI near the coast. Hurricane models have been pretty good with identifying the timeline for dry air mixing out, and we’re starting to see that on IR and importantly radar. Obviously it needs to 1) close off and then 2) tighten the RMW to build a more robust inner core that’s capable of capitalizing on the increasingly favorable environmental conditions. I’m not talking track anymore to prevent jinxing

First extrapolated pressure of 988.3mb Still need a dropsonde to have the official pressure. Edit: adding the latest microwave image

Beryl is once again attempting to organize with a convective burst right near the center. While dry air still lurks, we can see on VW shallow convection upshear perhaps trying to cut off dry air inflow and on radar the convection trying to wrap around the center. Recon is on its way to investigate. So far I feel ok about hedging east here in Bay City but with this heading any wobble left or right could make a huge difference for landfall point. Time sensitive WV loop

Yeah. If a legitimate inner core can get going by the time the trough swoops in to provide the diffluent upper level assist, this should take off. HAFS A & B have the dry air mixed out in the next few hours.

Despite all the effort at organizing, Beryl is still just middling along. No real evidence of intensification or a well organized core. Dry air has held it in check, but now shear has decreased significantly so we’ll see if the dry air can get mixed out over the next 12 hours.

First video

It still has a lot of work to do, but like someone earlier said there’s a foundation. I want to see if the core has gotten any tighter/organized in the next VDMs. Here are the 00z models Interesting that SHIPS has such high odds for RI but doesn’t get it to hurricane status verbatim.

Arrived in Bay City not too long ago. Unrelated, but flew through one hell of a storm coming into Houston. Hedging east for now and will reevaluate tomorrow. It looks like the alignment, while still tilted, is gradually getting better. Wind field is looking more organized as well. Still, a gradual process.

This is WxWatcher007 reporting live from Bay City, TX. The trip here took longer than anticipated, as I ran into hellacious storms just as my plane landed in Houston. Traveling from Houston to my destination was delayed as a result. I had to pull off the highway as water started flooding the road. Once I got here however, there was the eerie quiet that’s become all too familiar in my travels. The hospitality staff are hunkering down and are here with their families. Children play in the lobby as a local news broadcast describing the severe potential runs in the background. At the local Walmart, the updated position and forecast for Beryl played over the sound system. Something I’ve never heard before. Folks here are paying attention, but not overly bothered. I am here for at least tonight—as I’m hedging east until I get a better sense of the final approach. As you all know—I have no interest in documenting storm surge. My priority is getting into the most intense part of the storm safely away from water, and with rapid intensification possible I definitely want to be on the eastern side. Other potential locations include Port Lavaca (but a little concerned about surge given my staging location), Corpus Christi, and Edna, a small community due north of Port Lavaca. As usual, I’m in touch with @MillvilleWx in case I can’t post during the worst. I’ll provide updates when I can. Definitely want a successful chase (on my birthday weekend!) but it’s the first of what I think will be a few chases this season. This is my first Texas hurricane chase. Wish us all luck down here.