WxWatcher007

Here in CT. Visible with naked eye!

Saw that the lights got to MD last night! This was here at home. It was stunning.

Said it yesterday—last EC hurricane landfall in 2020 (Isaias), last EC major 2004. You need the perfect pattern along the EC. That’s why I’m more lukewarm on the long track MDR systems. Ah got it. I still think it’s more likely than not even if we got one more NS after Ernesto in August. That’s where I think OHC and a cool neutral ENSO extends the season to provide more runway. Edit: just to show why—these anomalies aren’t going anywhere. Cool neutral reduces shear, a weak Nina is even better shear wise. If there’s an active West African Monsoon—and everything suggests it continues through the peak, even the clear recurve late season stuff could have a path to be big ACE producers. Even warm neutral years greatly reduce shear.

This seems bafflingly prisoner of the moment to me? There’s historically about 85% of the season left at this point and we’re running ahead of climo in NS/H/MH/ACE before Ernesto even forms and potentially becomes a longish track ACE producer. We’ve had two US hurricane landfalls before Aug 15, which formed during normally hostile climatological periods. Both of those systems, while not majors at landfall (why would they be, the first MH is expected September 1) rapidly intensified in the 48-36 hours before landfall. I feel like I do this every August around here when we’re not at like 10/5/3 by August 10 lol. The data is objectively impressive compared to the historical record. A number of our recent seasons produced huge peaks—I don’t see anything yet to suggest this peak won’t be big, and I’m not focusing on SSTAs or OHC in that statement though they do matter. Highest # of NS 8/11+: (from GAWX) 21: 2020, 05 16: 2021, 19, 10, 1969, 50 15: 2023, 1933 2017 didn’t get its first hurricane until August 8 and then pulled off 10 consecutive hurricanes mostly in September and October. There are whole ass seasons outside of the ones above that happen in a few weeks focused on the peak of the season more often than not. The average days between 1 TC forming is 14 in July and 11 in August. Of course things can fail. But the pre-peak activity doesn’t scream anything but top 10 season at least to me. Don’t need 28 NS for that.

I saw reports about something happening in the higher latitudes on Twitter so I put the camera out just in case. Walked outside to collect the camera and it was absolutely perfect timing. Looked up and could immediately see pillars and light. Will definitely hit you up if anything like this happens again I think it was a surprise to many. Back in May while the whole planet was experiencing the lights I was in MD for travel…and it was overcast.

My God. Visible here with the naked eye. This is incredible.

Yeah—even on that run though you can see how the initial trough isn’t quite enough on its own to kick it into the open North Atlantic. We’ll see what the trend is tomorrow both on the models and with the development of our PTC. It may be the case that weaker is great for the islands but creates more risk elsewhere. I still think Bermuda and Atlantic Canada should be paying close attention to this one. Still a nonzero longshot for the US.

Note how the GFS has trended away from rapid development, with vorticity further south and elongated in the Caribbean. That leads to less influence of the initial trough. That is something that we already knew to watch, but you see the implications on the model tonight even if there are no direct land impacts outside of the Antilles.

Interesting perhaps that the GFS has trended weaker and further south with vorticity in the Caribbean. Trough looks deeper though so it may not matter. Second edit: lol

Anyone seeing an aurora out there? Seeing more and more posts on Twitter. Some as far south as PA and IA.

Yeah I think Bermuda could handle any category.

I mean in New England it’s Bob and Gloria for hurricane strikes. The last east coast hurricane was Isaias in 2020. The last major east coast hurricane was 2004. These have been hard to come by for decades. I think you can see a threatening pattern at long range, like the one we would have sans this initial trough, or Isaias, Irene, etc. but aside from Sandy I think no landfall is locked in on the east coast until D3 or D4 around here. I.e models nail the landfall point from 7+ days out.

Easier than rewriting it.

Hard to tell using my plot but it looks like several more NS/Newfoundland hits?

Just generally, the initial trough is absolutely not where it needs to be for anything close to an US EC close approach. It doesn’t take much to kick an MDR system away from the coast. Respect the hell out of Walt but this can’t even get within 1,000 miles of the Carolina coast with that trough as depicted. Atlantic Canada is a different story because like Fiona and some other recent storms it’s no guarantee the initial trough is enough to pull it all the way NE into the North Atlantic. Initial trough is there at relatively short range to scoop future Ernesto up Critically, that prevents a more westerly track in advance of the second trough, which would’ve been in the general location that favors some type of close approach or EC hit. Ernesto is simply too far east to be pulled off its recurve path toward the U.S., but not far enough potentially for Canada. Like Will would say in winter, you need changes in the initial trough to start showing up immediately…for any U.S. close approach to be in the realm of possibility.

Initial trough hangs back long enough to start the north turn quickly. The turn happens too fast and too far east for the second trough over the eastern U.S. to influence it much. We’ve had cross guidance agreement on this for a bit now. Sure it could change but it looks unlikely to me. Still worth watching closely in Atlantic Canada. Casual eye here.

That’s not particularly helpful. Hurricane models aren’t going to have a handle on the actual potential of a system at this development stage. At all.

It looked to me this morning that shear was impacting the convection some, but I agree this is looking pretty solid right now.

Both Beryl and Debby are examples this year of how much of an eternity away this is given the lack of a clear and clean recurve steering pattern. We should also not forget that no mainland US impacts ignores the very real risk to PR and USVI/Antilles. Or Atlantic Canada. We don’t have a center. We haven’t seen potential land interaction with the Antilles. We don’t know the orientation of EC trough or if it’ll even be there the way the models project post D6. We don’t know the amplitude of the Atlantic ridge post D6. It’s ok to say this is worth watching. Doesn’t mean doom is coming. We could all do without the hyperbole.

The pattern suggests that there’s a couple of ways the guidance could shift west. It may still very well go OTS. But if it gets to the Bahamas and guidance is still trying to pop some type of cutoff that’s going to lead to a close U.S. approach. At least. I know tropical is an imby thing around here but we also tend to forget about our Atlantic Canada friends. Lee (‘23), Fiona (‘22), Larry (‘21), Teddy (‘20), Dorian (‘19) had varying direct impacts on the region with Lee, Fiona, and Teddy coming from patterns that initially looked like an easy recurve. Tbh @Hazey and Atlantic Canada should be watching as closely as anyone.

Our friend hopes for San Diego wx nine months out of the year. Not that there’s anything wrong with that…I guess.

Early but here’s the first super ensemble. Folks in the islands need to pay attention to this one. Once again there are major short term differences between the GFS and Euro on intensity as this reaches the islands. There is an avenue of less shear, but I’m hesitant to expect rapid take off because of what the shear is currently doing. It looks low on analysis… But reality suggests otherwise… There’s still the caveat for the long range. We’re still in wait and see mode.

I hear it’s beautiful this time of year though.

Saw this from Windspeed earlier