WxWatcher007

Still may have a significant impact on Newfoundland, but yeah, the initial trough pulling it north before the Bahamas usually means it's gone for the US.

Woodshed. 0.00”

How this one evaporates before reaching me may have all timer potential.

Burning bushes under dry thunderstorms here. 0.00”

It’s clearly organizing at a faster pace and starting to intensify as a result. Pretty solid pressure drop as an eyewall nears completion as deep convection persists at the center and wraps upshear, and as a result, FL winds have risen modestly. Might be an interesting night of observations coming from recon. Another thing to watch is the long term heading, which may influence how much the initial trough positions Ernesto for Bermuda and beyond.

It’ll never happen. I’m aspirational. Idk who said that but we’re at 3 hurricanes before Aug 15th with 1 cat 5 and the current storm with a chance to become a major. What did you expect?

Ernesto looks fine to me. Solid CDO with an eyewall that was showing up on radar prior to leaving range. Wind field is a little broad but I don’t see why folks think the structure is poor for a “minimal” hurricane.

Euro couldn’t hold a consistent track on this one even if it were threatened with being unplugged.

PREs can happen left, right, or directly ahead of the track. Just depends on the jet/trough orientation ahead. Doubt this is a PRE setup unless Ernesto ends up substantially further west. Which is unlikely.

Third hurricane of the season

For New England to even sniff significant impacts you’d need the NE turn near Bermuda to essentially evaporate, and a stronger ECONUS trough to fully capture. That’s going to be extremely hard to do. I wonder if something like that is even in the record idk. Partial capture does nothing for New England imo, but for Atlantic Canada a partial capture likely brings a hit there.

Nothing good lol

Most of us knew it, but the models didn’t until just a few days before and I think it had a real world impact on Houston. Definitely not saying it’s coming here or even hitting land, but the model performance this season especially with track leaves a lot to be desired imo.

It’s been really interesting to see how the euro and gfs specifically are waffling with the longer range forecast. I won’t be surprised to see other major shifts.

I know most here don’t care, but it’s really interesting to me just how inconsistent and sometimes downright bad the models have been at range with regard to track. They’ve waffled a lot—whether it was taking Beryl from a Mexico coast landfall to just outside Houston (most), or keeping Debby out of the Gulf (Euro) and driving it into Alabama after landfall (GFS). The Euro and GFS seem like they’re circling each other. When one goes west, the other goes east beyond D5. It’s a huge shift west on the euro tonight, but history suggests it will be hundreds of miles east 12 hours from now. Just an interesting seasonal theme I’ve noticed. As it has been from the beginning, this is a real threat to Canada. Without that initial trough turning this north early it probably would’ve become a major east coast hit with the second trough orientation we see across guidance.

Bermuda will be fine and Ernesto looks like a standard mid-grade TS that’s trying but failing to develop an inner core. It’s on schedule.

@Hazey and Nick still squarely in play at this range.

I’ll never forget being glued to my TV as it seemed that every advisory showed more intensification.

80 in January?

Nah—anything is long past post tropical by then

Big time heater there. Yeah—keeping with the track theme, the pace of the race picks up quickly as peak climo speeds up big. The other multi-season trend that we’ve seen with the eastern and central MDR is waves struggling there but really exploding when getting to the western Atlantic. We need that to break and have quick development right off the CV islands if we’re going to do 25+ NS I think, but another 3-5 majors could be more doable because of cool neutral ENSO reducing Caribbean shear and the extent of OHC/anomalies in the Gulf and western Atlantic. Far less SAL influence further west. It’s actually pretty wild to see the difference in different sections of the basin.

I do too but we can’t even clear the bar of utter blowtorch and/or disaster the last half decade. A normal winter would feel tremendous, especially temps wise.

Especially during the winter.

This may not have much of a chance to trend toward mainland U.S. impacts, but Atlantic Canada is still squarely on the table.