WxWatcher007

Aside from 97L, the basin still looks primed for a big peak. Very favorable conditions are lining up as expected.

Totally agree—you can almost always see the threat from range, or at least get a sense that it could trend that way. Isaias is a good example. Henri probably a counter example but fairly quickly I think we could see it was worth watching. I do think the right kind of ridge could theoretically bring some sort of eastern NE tropical threat without much of a classic Midwest trough, but that’d be like threading multiple needles.

Good reference point when looking at 500h

The Euro, which has apparently been lost as of late, delays development until it crosses from the Gulf to SE coastline.

GIPHY or Imgur are great alternatives to allow for posting that doesn’t take up attachment space.

Give it a couple more DC winters

Yeah slow and meandering is not the way to get good tropical up here. Now if that ridge were flexing with the storm off the SE and that trough at D7 were more shallow or better yet wanted to cutoff in the lakes, then it’d be more interesting up here. The most interesting realistic thing for SNE right now is whether this can produce a PRE.

Autumn is our best season. You’ll love it. Winter not so much—especially recently.

Just absolute woodshed the last few seasons. Consistently wrong both the op and ensembles. Not just on the development of the wave but the broader steering pattern itself which is egregious imo at 7-8 days.

The vigorous tropical wave that left Africa days ago is now sharpening and becoming more convectively active as it enters the western Atlantic. The signal on guidance has favored tropical cyclone genesis for days now--much closer to the U.S., and the NHC now designates the area as having 60% odds of development in the next week. Originally, the sprawling wave traversed the eastern and central Atlantic devoid of convection due to the presence of strong SAL. While this prevented convection from developing, a combination of low level moisture pooling, high SSTs/OHC, light wind shear, and diminishing influence of SAL has allowed for gradual disorganized convective development, the first step toward TC genesis that's most likely days from now. https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl&timespan=120hrs&anim=html5 The large wave is now draped across the Greater Antilles, and there are numerous questions over the evolution of the wave in the next 5-7 days. First, how does the wave interaction with the Antilles spur or tighten vorticity? The GFS tried to spawn more robust vorticity after interacting with Haiti/DR, while the Euro for the most part has focused an eventual vortex in the convection that is north of the islands. This obviously has track implications. Second, how does a developing wave take advantage of what is likely to be a favorable upper level environment closer to the US? Does it develop faster, as the Euro until today suggested, and get pulled northward and then kicked OTS or NE by a developing Midwest trough, or, if things are delayed and track into the Gulf as the GFS suggests, where does it go? Third, what will be the steering pattern? There's an increasing signal that the steering pattern between an Atlantic ridge and Midwest trough breaks down as the disturbance reaches the east coast or Gulf, creating immense uncertainty on both track and intensity forecasts. The bottom line is that there's a lot of uncertainty with the forecast ahead. Ensembles are the way to go as we move forward the next few days to get a sense of the envelope of possibilities--which are very broad as it stands. OTS to a Gulf threat are on the table. The Gulf and SE US should watch this closely.

It probably organizes later if the 18z run continued. If anything I think intensity guidance got more aggressive today.

Yeah even though it’s not an invest it’s time for a thread as it’s an emerging “threat” to land. Do you want me to start it?

Very interesting track changes

Big strikes nearby

Nice garden variety storm here at home.

Very interesting model runs. It looks like the steering pattern more or less collapses if this gets into the Gulf. Just meanders as it waits to be picked up by a dominant steering feature. A lot to be resolved with this one.

I’d say the Gulf right now with the ridge/trough pulling it NE but the steering pattern kind of collapses if this takes its time getting there. I still favor something along the EC, which would be unlikely to help the region.

Nothing to really generate excitement yet, but for a tropical head like me I’m paying more attention each day. It’s going to be a few more days until TC genesis.

There’s going to be a lot of waffling op runs the next few days but the main takeaway is that this remains a viable TC genesis opportunity that could threaten the EC (most likely SE) or E Gulf before some type of recurve.

Yeah I think that probably continues to be a limiting factor but just note guidance has become more aggressive with intensification recently. With a favorable UL wind environment that can help keep nearby dry air from getting imparted. Still a fair amount of uncertainty with this one, but it continues to look legit to me.

100% I still lean heavily with the EPS and more EC potential. Even before convection started it looked like the wave axis was a little north to allow for the well west GFS solutions, though E GOM should definitely follow this. Still very early to make definitive track or intensity statements but the environment in the western Atlantic looks quite favorable for intensification—which is why I think we’re seeing an uptick in intensity from the GFS op and EPS. Nothing crazy, but notable given the environmental factors ahead.

It’s a very favorable environment in the western Atlantic, but the size of the wave and dryness aloft has kept this from popping quickly. I’d still say it’s unlikely anything happens in our neck of the woods but the SE is definitely in the game and we (and Atlantic Canada) should keep a casual eye on it. I don’t think the GFS Gulf solutions are viable given the convective activity we’re starting to see north of the Antilles but we’ll see if that activity leads to earlier development.

Congrats again Atlantic Canada on the Euro But seriously, our only chance for anything other than cirrus is for the ridge to drive this into the Carolinas and then NE. Even then, remnants are a long shot. Maybe we can get a PRE out of it in SNE while Stein cradles Dendy to sleep lol.

Quite robust as it hooks northeast. Euro remains the most aggressive guidance clearly.

You really want to look at the 5 day to see the change but the environment is gradually moistening. There’s been lower level pooling in the wave so as it continues wrapping in moisture from the ITCZ that should help as the wave gets to warmer waters. The western Atlantic looks favorable but the wave is so large and dry aloft it’ll take time to organize. I still think the GFS is way too far west with this. It looks like a SE coast/recurve to me eventually.