WxWatcher007

Somebody will complain.

It can vary by storm and context. For intensity, now that we have a well defined center, the hurricane models like the HAFS-A&B, HWRF, HMON tend to be best especially at shorter to medium range. For track, it’s the global models, and most often the Euro and GFS. The Euro has struggled so far with this one imo, but it’s still worth looking at and taking seriously.

Yikes

Euro isn’t north enough for a region wide drought buster.

Yes. It has been playing catch up for days, but its solution is viable too if this system moves a bit faster. Even still—it’s wet along the south coast.

It looks about the same between FL and the SE landfall, and then faster than 00z moving from inland SC to points NE. Very different in that regard from the GFS.

Very different from the other guidance. South coast gets soaked in the PRE, but yes very south non-event for most.

Off the SE coast it’s about the same as 00z.

It’s already running. Out to 150 so far on wx models.

#NewNormal

Yeah it is extremely slow. Kind of doubt that.

There is prolific rain potential with this one for a lot of areas.

Agree with Tip—I think the limiting factor is time over water and lack of inner core. It’s still not quite organized enough for me to think it immediately takes off after crossing Cuba. If we wanted more wind impacts up here it can’t be rotting over CAE before getting turned northward. It needs to scrape Wilmington to the OBX and get some jet streak assistance as it rolls north. The interesting thing is that regardless the track south the models continue to show it being a potentially prolific rainmaker much further north. If anything that signal has gotten stronger and geographically more expansive.

That solution is unlikely just by virtue of it being a long range (by tropical standards) op run, but you can never count out tropical systems producing prolific rain totals within any 24 hour period, especially if terrain or trough enhancement is possible. Just to illustrate though.. As @ineedsnow notes, there’s the PRE with pretty hellacious convergence and enhancement. Followed up by the event itself The latest Euro abandons its Tennessee odyssey for now and brings it northeast, but aside from a brief heavy rain signal in SNE and Mid-Atlantic it’s OTS before a significant rain event for Atlantic Canada. It’s easy to dismiss these systems around here because it takes a very specific set of circumstances to get meaningful tropical around here, but what makes this increasingly interesting to me at least is 1) the rain signal—this looks like a good PRE candidate even if it stays offshore, and 2) guidance wants to tuck this into the coast—yeah troughs can easily kick these, but the conditions that allow a tropical system to hug the coast northeast also create a larger than climo window for impacts further north. Not always or even often enough to hit (Matthew, Dorian) given inherently hostile climo any time of year, but it seems that once future Debbie misses the initial trough and gets pushed back toward the coast by the ridge and northward with the second trough, there’s a scenario in there where a threat could materialize. At this range I’d still hedge toward a climo kick OTS, but it’s worth a closer eye. This is kind of the scenario I envisioned a few weeks ago for August chances around here. Finally, this is really an eternity away but I was looking at the broader Atlantic environment to do a post about the coming weeks, and noticed that the environment isn’t necessarily a quickly fall apart type for this, especially depending on trough interaction and forward speed. A lot more than you asked for lol but I love this stuff. https://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/research/galarneau_etal_2010_mwr.pdf

A lot of changes with the GFS today. Note the trough/ridge in the last three runs. Definitely worth watching with a sharper eye up the coast. Even an inland system in the SE could be very impactful further north.

Pretty big changes on the GFS, which has been leading the way significantly imo. Still an eternity to go in tropical time and a lot to sort out in the steering pattern specifics, but this is increasingly interesting. Note the ridge/trough in the last three runs.

That’d be one hell of a rain event for NE verbatim. Ridge/trough combo gets it done.

00z GFS verbatim brings it right back into the SC coast early Thursday. Still a lot to be resolved with the steering pattern next week. Different time stamp but the GEFS are also further west early on.

But let’s put RI under water?

LFG. Unlikely, but we take the eye candy. That ridge looked better and critically, that trough was deeper.

Clouds developed over my house but not the rain lol.

I’d love to see what the EPS does. The op waffling doesn’t inspire confidence. Also, really good call day ago about this going into the eastern Gulf.

Man the Euro is just a lost cause at this point. Waffling wildly after being consistently wrong early. Hate to see it.

The high to the east helps prevent a quick escape, but troughs are king. That needs a lot of work. I know you know this but it’s not like a wintertime coastal, a BM track won’t cut it for meaningful (non-PRE) impacts around here.

Maybe a closer approach, but like @CoastalWx said the flow isn’t what you need for a more direct shot. Could easily see eastward shifts once there’s a well defined center guidance can effectively model. We watch in case there are changes with the trough but it’s unlikely to change that much right now. The PRE signal has been consistent however, so that’s definitely something to watch for NE and Atlantic Canada.