WxWatcher007

This was from the 5am. It’s probably still a marginal TS. Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 500 AM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Debby's center is just inland of the Georgia coast while most of the deep convection is oriented in a couple of bands over the Atlantic waters feeding northwestward into South Carolina. Scatterometer data from late last evening indicated that the tropical-storm-force wind field had expanded eastward over the Atlantic waters, and that the maximum sustained winds were near 40 kt. This was confirmed by a few observations of 35-40 kt sustained winds along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina. The initial intensity is therefore held at 40 kt.

We’ll have the usual winners and losers with this one with my backyard dry slotting

If this one doesn’t produce for you, we may need to consider one of those desert irrigation systems for the region. Build a pipeline to Lake Erie.

Wow. That’s insane.

Maybe next run it’ll try to be consistent rather than burying the low in Alabama again lol

The flood watch in southern CT is a good call. Much of the guidance has a good signal for rain later this evening/early Wednesday that could lead to a few inches. The axis of the heaviest however is still unclear. Meanwhile the GFS has adjusted away from its buried in the SE look and importantly is more robust verbatim as the remnant/post tropical low reaches the region. At least at 06z. Breezy at the coast on both the GFS and Euro for the wind wishers. As we finally see Debby reach the Atlantic we’ll see if the guidance trends back away from those far west and weaker solutions. I should note that even those weaker runs overnight dumped 3+ in many spots. We’re likely going to get soaked regardless.

Meh right now on the models.

Perhaps it’s a touch faster and east—I don’t have an overlay, but the center is still inland looking at the radar loop. The circle is where I’d put it. Radar velocities remain between 40-50mph so the weakening trend has continued, but like I said earlier the structure is what matters. It has clearly degraded, perhaps at a slightly accelerated pace, the last few hours. How much this all matters remains to be seen. I’ll be looking for whether convection begins to fire closer to the center as it approaches the coast, which will take time. SSTs are warm but we have to see if the center can get over the Gulf Stream and for any meaningful amount of time. Shear doesn’t look too bad in the Atlantic the next few days looking at current analysis and SHIPS, so time and proximity to land are the biggest inhibitors determining whether this remains a TS or makes a run at hurricane intensity again.

Agree. If we’re talking most impactful, some type of regeneration/landfall near the SC/NC border and NNE track off Ocean City to across the south coast would be it. The trend has been west and inland though. Kind of crazy that we’re still so far out in tropical tracking standards so shifts remain likely.

Given how bad it has been, that’s a reasonable take lol. You’re in the extreme drought zone, right?

Good luck there too.

Super ensemble is still useful for this reason. Until we see more here the GFS is barely worth consideration imo.

GFS would REALLY be pulling off a coup if it’s right about Debby dying on the GA/Alabama line rather than riding north.

Stay safe there. Hope your property ends up fine.

The forecast will definitely continue to evolve as we see how Debbie moves back over the Atlantic and interacts with the ridge/trough.

NHC accounts for decay over land. Rapid weakening was expected, but the forecast still gets this to the Atlantic where some intensification remains likely. The NHC forecast gets it far enough out into the Atlantic to allow for it imo. That said, this is emphatically a rain/water event. I look less at the surface wind right now and more the structural decay. For now, the structure looks as expected on radar and satellite.

I don’t need to tell you that it’s been a dry summer. The anomalously strong tropical wave that traversed the Atlantic made landfall in Florida this morning as a category one hurricane, and as it meanders in the southeast bringing potentially catastrophic flooding in parts of FL, GA, and SC, it’s time for a thread to track impacts in the Mid-Atlantic region. Debby is emphatically a rain event. It’s not just the slow movement in the south that will cause issues, it’s the presence of a coming trough and anomalously high moisture content that will bring flooding potential along most of the U.S. East Coast. A lot remains unclear on impacts in the region. It’s a high likelihood that significant rain occurs, but how much and how far west the rain gets, as well as coastal wind, surge, and severe weather impacts will be determined by the structural organization of the low after a likely landfall in SC, and the track as it moves north and northeast. Here’s the latest forecast.

Ok I’ll whip something up.

For posterity And while this isn’t likely to be a wind event, especially if Debby stays inland, we don’t get these probs often

Wind won’t be the headline under virtually any scenario, but this helps illustrate how even inland lows are likely to stay somewhat robust. It’ll be interesting to see what the NHC does with their late period forecast for when Debby goes post tropical. Also, I think it’s the for a thread.

Not sure I get the mod zone in NJ by the WPC, but man a 3 day high risk in the SE is crazy. Charleston goes underwater on sunny days. ...Mid-Atlantic/southern portions of the Northeast... A Moderate Risk area was raised for extreme northeast Maryland, southeast Pennsylvania and central/southern New Jersey where there is a growing signal for a PRE (predecessor rain event) to unfold as Tropical Cyclone Debby impacts the Southeast/Mid- Atlantic region. Training convection will refire with daytime heating Tuesday afternoon, continuing into Tuesday night. From Baltimore northeast up the I-95 corridor to the Boston metro, training storms and urbanization may cause an outsized risk of flash flooding. While there is some spread in the guidance in where the front will stall, the training storms will be capable of dumping 2 to 4 inches, locally 5+ inches which would quickly surpass local FFGs and lead to scattered to possibly widespread instances of flooding.

This is going to get ugly. Multi-day high risk issued now.

I think that may depend on how much Debby holds together the next few days and reintensifies. Euro develops a really water laden system over the Atlantic before the SC landfall. The better organized it is I think the more efficiently it’ll be able to wring moisture out of the atmosphere as it interacts with the trough and moves northward.

Once it gets back into a more robust steering pattern, it starts scooting NE pretty quickly. Significant rain in a somewhat compressed time frame.