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WxWatcher007

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Everything posted by WxWatcher007

  1. WxWatcher007
    Just saw this…might be of interest to some here
  2. WxWatcher007
    Wow
  3. WxWatcher007
    SW Atlantic will be the hot spot this season imo.
  4. WxWatcher007
    Gotta make sure you get it right.
  5. WxWatcher007
    931.9mb extrapolated on the latest pass with a 143kt FL wind.
  6. WxWatcher007
    On cue 8:00 AM AST Sat Aug 16 Location: 19.6°N 62.0°W Moving: WNW at 20 mph Min pressure: 935 mb Max sustained: 145 mph
  7. WxWatcher007
    Latest dropsonde found a 936mb pressure w/ 14kt wind. The last VDM was at 942mb. Expect a more powerful storm at the 8am advisory…
  8. WxWatcher007
    Pressure dropping like a rock with some big FL and SFMR winds at the center.
  9. WxWatcher007
    Rapid intensification of yore Go to bed with a 1, wake up to a 4.
  10. WxWatcher007
    If it can avoid an ERC. Exceptional pressure falls
  11. WxWatcher007
  12. WxWatcher007
    I don't believe so. It looks like Erin's core isn't being hindered at all by it. Dropsonde in the NW eyewall measured 89kt at the surface and 99kt just off the deck at 925mb.
  13. WxWatcher007
    As @Boston Bulldogsaid, Erin is taking off. After struggling with SAL and drier air, Erin looks to have mixed that out and organized substantially, with a closed eyewall for hours now per recon, much better vertical alignment, and a tightening RMW. In the image below, note how the first pass had a weaker sampling of winds in the southern half of the storm, but subsequent passes now show a more symmetrical distribution of strongest winds in the eyewall. As the NHC notes, the environment is conducive for explosive intensification. Wind shear is low for now, the outflow continues to become more impressive, and moisture looks like much less of an issue. The islands, even though there are likely to be some impacts, are incredibly fortunate that they are not in the direct path of what is going to become a buzzsaw in the next 24-36 hours.
  14. WxWatcher007
    Fall can be nice until about December 1
  15. WxWatcher007
    VDM puts it at 984mb
  16. WxWatcher007
    981.4mb extrapolated
  17. WxWatcher007
    Right. I’m guessing the central pressure has dropped a few mb since then. This looks primed to take off now.
  18. WxWatcher007
    I’ve been sold all year on the SW Atlantic being the seasonal hot spot. Erin was the first real test and we’re seeing how that’s likely to go… This won’t be the last time the east coast is watching a major imo, but waves actually have to get to that part of the basin first.
  19. WxWatcher007
    Recon approaching for another center pass. We’ll see just how quickly this is intensifying shortly.
  20. WxWatcher007
    Yeah, zero concern in the long range from me right now. As we saw with Erin, these long range model runs aren’t good for much..
  21. WxWatcher007
    This is about as clear a recurve pattern as you can get for the US east coast. Has been for days and days...
  22. WxWatcher007
    Looks like you're in the same boat as us, but Newfoundland is still close.
  23. WxWatcher007
    Finally found a way to make a loop of SAL
  24. WxWatcher007
    There is a pretty good signal on the GEFS and EPS that the following wave will have a chance to develop in the central Atlantic, and a more modest signal that the wave train is probably going to be active for the next week or so--aided by the MJO and passage of the CCKW. Dry air and stability will remain hurdles waves need to overcome, but as we see each year, often times the lead wave (failed 96L or whatever it was) opens the door for the next one. It's unclear how much SAL will get back into the pathway, but look at how Erin cleared the way.
  25. WxWatcher007
    Except Fiona! What a great chase that was.
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