WxWatcher007

We've made it to October, and with Imelda in its final act and just under three weeks left in the peak season forecast, it's time to take a look at what comes next. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 10 (4) Hurricanes: 6 (3) Major Hurricanes: 3 (2) Fernand, Gabrielle (MH), Humberto (MH), Imelda (H) First, there's still plenty of potential left in the basin. Although climo is quickly shifting westward, we still see robust AEWs moving into the basin, and one of those will actually be an area of interest discussed below. Yes, there is dry air/SAL in the tropical Atlantic, but look at the ITCZ and the convection we have there. This will go a long way toward ensuring the survival of the coming waves. A key part of what happens the rest of the period will center around intraseasonal forcing. Will the MJO remain in a favorable state for TC genesis and landfall risk? Will we get a CCKW that enhances the opportunity for waves to develop? The signals are mixed, but I think we will remain in a favorable period overall through the end of October. As I stated in my peak season forecast, I still think we rapidly end the season at the end of the month however. In terms of getting more NS and H, the basin continues to be primed for it, with SST anomalies still robust throughout the Atlantic. As we shift toward activity in the climo favored spots off the SE coast, Gulf, and Caribbean--especially the western Caribbean, there is plenty of fuel for low to moderate end activity. The picture becomes more complicated when looking at high end activity, however. To be sure, there is plenty of OHC, especially in the western part of the basin. But a deeper look shows that there are more localized regions where higher end activity is more likely. I don't think this changes much, but we definitely have to watch out for another potential MH if it gets into these zones of anomalously high OHC. Finally, we have been extremely lucky that nothing has formed in the Caribbean. Between anomalously high OHC and exceptionally low shear, we've been avoiding disaster--seriously. Now that climo is shifting into this region, we need to closely monitor 1) the development of a CAG by mid-October and 2) any tropical waves getting to the Caribbean. There is a strong signal for anomalously low wind shear to return--though this year has been incredibly conducive in the wind shear category. Alright, so what are we watching? I have three areas of interest. 1. Tropical Atlantic Wave The Tropical Atlantic has been more of a bust this season as expected, in large part due to the prevalence of dry and stable air along with SAL. This has been an issue throughout the decade. However, those conditions are more limited now, and an active wave train has moistened a good part of the MDR. There is a strong cross guidance signal that a wave emerges and finds hospitable conditions in the ITCZ. This should eventually lead to some level of development, as evidenced by the models. I am bullish on development. 2. SE Coast/Gulf This is the second lemon by the NHC, and it's no surprise given that there has been a signal for a few days now. In the wake of Imelda, we have a boundary that is left behind, and along it we have some vorticity trying to spin up. Now, whether that becomes a low is unclear, but we do know that climo starts to favor these kinds of things in October. The limiting factors are proximity to land, and time. Whatever develops should cross Florida and into the Gulf, but is unlikely to meander there with time to develop into anything serious. This probably has a decent chance of development, though not nearly as high as area #1. It's worth a casual eye. 3. Caribbean CAG This is the one to watch, even though there isn't a significant development signal, yet. Toward the middle of the month, guidance is starting to show the development of a Central American Gyre, which favors slow, but gradual tropical genesis. The CPC has picked up on it, and recent years have shattered the mold on what CAGs can become. Recently, they've become some of our most destructive storms. With wind shear expected to drop significantly and the thermal environment in the Caribbean, along with the increased tendency for troughing in the east around this time, our next significant threat may very well come from this region.

Low of 41.7 here at WXW1

Looks like a landfall is imminent or close to it.

lol I posted that image not even seeing that snow hole down in @Baroclinic Zone land. My bad.

Eventually we’ll be back?

Two years in a row with the ICON having a coup. Last year it was first to latch onto the pattern that brought Beryl to the upper Texas coast. Thanks for posting. Yeah it wasn’t that I thought Imelda had peaked, it was more that the structure last night couldn’t keep long enough to allow for that level of intensification. The structure today has been substantially better, but not quite there.

Closing the book on September. I'll have an update on what to watch for in October tomorrow.

Nothing really impressive about Imelda on recon tonight. I think the already small opening for Imelda to turn major has closed. The interaction between these two will be a sight to behold though the next few days.

Northeast flow from the two hurricanes triggering flood advisories. Along the coast.

August was alright. September has been great—though I think this is the first one in a while where I didn’t have a chase opportunity. It’s coming in October though.

Ugh, 2020. The year of King Grinch.

This’ll be my best September for solar

From my peak season forecast: “As the EPS suggests, we could start seeing favorable conditions return even earlier in the peak period, but I think a conservative expectation of things to heat up with the MJO after the 20th is the best route. That would make the September 20-October 20 period most active.”

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 10 (4) Hurricanes: 6 (3) Major Hurricanes: 3 (2) Fernand, Gabrielle (MH), Humberto (MH), Imelda (H)

Yeah not nearly as crisp a satellite presentation as even a few hours ago. FL winds continue to increase however.

The greatest sunset I'll probably ever see came as I was chasing Dorian in NC. The sky was on fire. There have been some good ones up here, but tonight was spectacular. The picture doesn't even do it justice.

Probably on the cusp of hurricane status now. Recon in there now.

Tropical outflow always delivers on sunsets.

New blow up of convection right over the center

Of course not lol

Why move to Florida when we can do sunny, dry, and AN without the humidity DJF?

Looking at the recent guidance, if I were going to highlight some areas of interest it would be the Gulf/SE Coast in the next week, the western Caribbean with a weak CAG signal in the 7-10 day period, and a tropical wave in the MDR in that same period. It looks pretty active--or at least there will be chances for TC genesis. Might do a post later about it. I track my peak season forecast numbers in the legacy Mid-Atlantic thread, but I'll post here too. Imelda likely gets me to 3 H or 50% of my forecast with three full weeks left (including today). It has an outside shot at MH, which may all but guarantee that I am too low on MH as I expect at least high end activity in October. Unfortunately for coastal residents, I still think a MH strike is likely, and that the east coast isn't out of the woods on threats. I'm not sure what to think about Imelda's threat to the coast--if not for Humberto going nuclear, I think this would've been the EC hurricane strike I predicted. For the east coast that definitely gets less likely in October though as the images I posted above show, that's really after the 10th. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 10 (4) Hurricanes: 6 (2) Major Hurricanes: 3 (2) Fernand, Gabrielle (MH), Humberto (MH), Imelda

Should've posted this yesterday but it actually makes more sense today as Imelda is on an intensification trend. Imelda adds to the list and should become a hurricane. Outside shot at a major. The peak season forecast is still up in the air, but with activity still expected on the models and in the areas I highlighted, I like where I sit. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 10 (4) Hurricanes: 6 (2) Major Hurricanes: 3 (2) Fernand, Gabrielle (MH), Humberto (MH), Imelda

The ragged eyewall does look like it collapsed per recon, but that's not really a surprise given IR last night. I do agree that the presentation has really improved and the pressure falls have been impressive.

We uninstalled weeks ago and haven't looked back.