WxWatcher007

Count me in this group. Erin did mount a bit of a comeback, but the structural changes and shear has taken a toll. Still a dangerous storm to be sure, but just entering a new phase of its life cycle as it turns north and expands dramatically. Here's the last 10 hours on IR. Perhaps of note (or not), both the 12z HAFS and Euro pull this significantly closer to the Outer Banks. There have been some modeling head fakes, hence my skepticism, but as we know Erin has been pulling more west at times. Flooding will be the major issue there, but it looks like a TS watch may be justified later today. Even though it won't be a direct hit, I hope Outer Banks folks are taking this seriously.

From the NHC. I wonder if there are more watches up the coast eventually if the nudges west continue. 4. Interests along the Outer Banks of North Carolina and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are possible in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday and a Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watch may be required later today.

Also from the NHC 4. Interests along the Outer Banks of North Carolina and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are possible in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday and a Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watch may be required later today.

I'm skeptical that this wave gets pushed into the Gulf given the signal for another big trough on the ensembles, but critically, this trough is more over the US rather than in Canada, which opens the door for some type of east coast threat. We obviously have a long way to go with this one, but it's worth some attention.

Erin is not going to need to hug the coast in order to bring some impacts. This is going to be a huge wind field, and if Erin is truly poised to continue tracking further west as it has throughout its time being forecasted, strong winds along the coast shouldn't be ruled out. The NHC itself has made it a point in recent discussions. We should also start keeping an eye on what the ensembles do with the follow up wave.

Yeah, there's no question this has been further south/west of guidance throughout its life cycle. Given the size that it will acquire, it won't need to be hugging the coast to bring TS impacts to the Outer Banks and maybe even far SE New England and the Canadian Maritimes. This one may not make landfall, but its impact is being felt in many places.

Now there's a lot more nuance to this obviously as we have to see 1) whether the wave develops, 2) where it develops, 3) when it develops, but unlike Erin, for an ensemble 7 days out and not 10+, this is an "in the ballgame" look. EPS is more paltry but that's how the EPS/Euro is--look at the lows buried in the Bahamas. GEFS show something similar. Just as important is the 500mb pattern. Storms in the Bahamas don't matter if you don't have an Atlantic ridge to block and trough to our west to pull it north. Again, this is about 7 days out on the ensembles, so this isn't a fantasy steering pattern scenario. This is Erin at 72h. Everyone by now should know this is NOT a NE tropical pattern. Not even close with that depiction in Canada. Now look at the pattern in about a week as this possible wave approaches the Bahamas. Still work to do with the trough, but it's night and day with a ridge building in the maritimes. Verbatim that's not a lock for us, but what is at this range. The players on the table however show that this one is worth a closer eye.

Erin is in the 80th percentile of MH in size and it'll continue to grow the wind field, so I could def see TS force winds on the OBX and maybe in a place like Nantucket. It's indisputable that the track has been too far east/north throughout Erin's lifecycle. As for the follow up wave, absolutely worth a watch. Casual for now, but the signal is there for another close approach. I don't think Erin is out in time to build a ridge that forces this into the Gulf...unless this develops further south. It looks like it's going to be near "ideal" for where I'd want to see a TC develop.

The appearance has improved dramatically as the deep convection is now fully wrapped.

I just want to take a second to illustrate what I mean. The signal is robust on both sets of ensembles, though it is stronger on the GEFS. Now looking beyond ensembles, I think development is likely for a few reasons, even if delayed. First, the preceding wave and Erin have helped reduce SAL significantly. While there is still plenty out there which may inhibit development, I don't know if dry air/SAL alone will kill the wave, especially with another CCKW likely assisting in future. There are pockets of shear that could cause trouble, but the ensembles don't show an overwhelmingly prohibitive signal as this gets closer to the Antilles. Currently, the wave is in a narrow corridor of lower deep layer shear. I'm not sure it's all systems go, but I think the operational models aren't quite picking up on TC genesis potential quite yet.

I'm the leader now. .12 in that shower. A tropical .48 for the month so far.

The operational runs are nonsense but the GEFS and EPS definitely have a strong TC genesis signal.

One of the reasons I like the SW Atlantic as a hot spot is the thermal environment. Erin is likely a blip, especially with it being mid August.

Given that look, with the ridge in SE Canada, I’m not so sure it hooks quickly, but we’re far out obviously at this stage. I’m on board though. I think the environment strongly supports eventual development.

Haven’t had a chance to take a look yet, but I appreciate your stuff.

Erin is gone but the follow up wave may be something worth watching. If Erin gets out fast enough we should have the ridge rebuild as a deep trough dives in to our west. And it’s also not a 14 day fantasy deal. Obviously we’re never favored, but it’s a different setup at a more “reasonable” range.

NHC noting the possibility of some impacts 4. Interests along the North Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin as there is a risk of strong winds associated with the outer rainbands during the middle part of the week.

Great thing about being in radar range is you can track the wobbles

Islands continuing to get lashed by the outer bands of Erin

CVs are pretty but they’re the 10 at the party that’s too good for everyone.

Hmm… No rain, but the wind field is massive on all guidance. Significant hit for Newfoundland too.

Still impacts out there. The Virgin Islands are under a flash flood warning and are getting lashed by rain bands.

It did that before and snapped right back within one cycle. I think it’s still an outlier until other guidance (GFS) comes along. The only thing that was of modest interest to me though on that run was something I noted days ago. Depending on the timing of the trough there may be a fast moving PRE that sets up somewhere. Again, unless the Euro knows what it’s doing this is all moot. ——— THIS IS A WEENIE PRODUCT FOR INEEDSNOW