WxWatcher007
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Everything posted by WxWatcher007
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This one has been up there in drama and entertainment. Imagine if the gfs nukes areas further west tonight. -
NAM did a tactical nuclear strike earlier and the euro just sent another.
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Still a fair amount of time for ticks. Right now I think it’s better to continue highlighting the probabilities and lean conservative in a map at the moment and adjust early tomorrow if needed.
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…if it’s right. I think it’s closest to verifying, but a last minute shift east kills us. Razor’s edge here.
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I think that’s a reasonable bar.
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Oh how I pray but I’m not that bullish.
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Welp Disclaimer: I don't trust the NAM
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I know, but damn It may be bad but I don't think it'll be THAT bad.
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One inch of fluff and then cirrus on Saturday?
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Only if it delivers a nuclear strike.
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100% But where's the entertainment if everyone were level-headed? Expecting a couple good melts today lol.
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I don’t think that’s unreasonable. I’m a little higher personally, probably 8-12 out there. Not sure what our map will look like though. As long as it’s not a gfs abomination track I see good banding setting up well west of the center.
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You’ve effortlessly slid into the role of TBlizz lol for this one but I get it, you’re pretty far west and have seen some heartbreakers.
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I agree. I just want the Ukie narcan map to verify In all seriousness though, gotta get a map done this morning/early afternoon. Still personally thinking warning level snow back to the CT/NY border but what that looks like I’m still not quite sure.
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Ten miles isn’t a big deal but for parts of CT we’re pretty sensitive to the slight shifts. I know the WOR crew would like to hang onto overnight’s “gains”.
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Yeah they look solid but not nearly as impressive a few days ago. Not sure how far inland we can get blizzard warnings.
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I’d sign right now, accept my snow deposit, call it a winter, and not look back.
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I get it, but we have to remember these are just tools. There have been big individual misses or caves by the other models and even the ensembles—I’ve seen this particularly in tropical genesis/track/intensity forecasting. Obviously different than mid latitude cyclone forecasting, but this is why it’s important to not get too high or low on the specific runs and understand each model’s relative strengths/biases.
