WxWatcher007

Cape Verde. Basically the part of the season where the majority of the tropical activity comes from waves that form near Africa.

So far…expect Sam to add some ACE to the total.

That one was a really extraordinary turn of events. From an easy recurve pattern (modeled) to stalling over NC. This far out, the operational runs are just weenie fodder IMO. Fun to look at but that's about it. The ensembles will really give you a sense of where things stand in terms of modeled track, though it should be noted these will shift and can shift dramatically one way or another at this range too. I wouldn't look at the long term stuff on the models, 6+ days out, as whether a model is right or wrong. At this stage, I'd watch for the larger steering environment players and short to medium term environment for potential intensification to get a sense of what's possible with regard to track and intensity.

That's very impressive considering that just a few weeks ago that region was barely above normal. Everything has lined up for an extended CV season.

Regardless of the eventual track, it’s going to be very cool to watch this thing take off over the next two days in the MDR. For all those that have been waiting for this part of the MDR to look like the peak periods of yesteryear, get your popcorn ready.

5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 23Location: 11.1°N 39.7°WMoving: W at 16 mphMin pressure: 1000 mbMax sustained: 60 mph

All good, just messing with ya. Thanks for starting the thread.

EPS would still favor a recurve at this juncture. Very nice animation of it here.

I don’t really care about the D10 low location. What matters to me are the players on the field. So while the actual run isn’t particularly close verbatim, all I really need to see is the SE Canada ridging and possible cutoff. It’s there for now. Let’s see what’s what when it gets to the Antilles.

That’s still very close with ridging over the top and cutoff to the west. Very very close. Yeah. Ensembles will be interesting. Not calling for a landfall lol but anomalous SE Canada ridging and a cutoff are fairly significant red flags, even at this range.

Quite a close call for the northern Antilles on this euro run.

Every time I start to preach the gospel of the GFS being better than the euro on tropical, it does this

Totally agree. This will be a major. Chaos when I don’t start the thread

Hey there, Sammy.

Better than the recent slop.

Yeah it’s a close approach/landfall steering pattern on the operational. Ensembles aren’t there though, and quite honestly the GFS would need to really show the potential to make me trust the euro. Watch out for some potential homebrew in early October too. Some weak signals starting to show..

Still pretty far out there though in terms of time. As I usually do with MDR systems, I’m not really fully on board until I see it at Antilles. That’ll be a key point as we’ll know whether it’s taking the first potential escape route into the ridge weakness or not.

TD 18 has formed and is expected to become a major hurricane in the next 5 days. That should help me get back on track as all the recent slop has decoupled my named storm prediction from my hurricane/major prediction…

This far out that’s usually the expectation, but that’s the business. Still worth tracking.

I think I still like October, but not from a long track MDR system. As long as we keep getting robust waves moving across the Atlantic, which we should see activity through October with a nice standing wave east of Africa. A mitigating factor could be shear, but all it takes is a window. For now, we (tropical trackers) watch 98L and bide time for the second peak around mid-October.

I’m slowly getting more interested.

I think that one has a good shot to impact land, and the Antilles should definitely be watching. These low latitude lows generally have a much easier trek west. As for the US, still too far out..

I expected a somewhat active MDR, but like last season it’s been virtually all slop. Peter overperformed, but did not become a hurricane. Rose was low grade. 98L is on the horizon with probably the best environment yet of the recent waves/systems and a much lower latitude. Peak Season Forecast (Actual) Named Storms: 13 (9) Hurricanes: 9 (3) Major Hurricanes: 5 (2)

Glad someone got to it. Could be another long tracker with the most favorable MDR environment yet. Though that’s not saying much this season…