WxWatcher007

Boring. Fits the theme of the season.

This is WxWatcher007 reporting live…

What’s the benchmark river flooding event in Maine?

I’m used to the heat, but last night I woke up in the middle of the night and it was a furnace. My apartment is extraordinary at retaining heat. Great during winter, absolutely outrageous during the summer. During that furnace summer in 2012 I was a student living in an apartment when it was 100 at HFD. No AC. That was wild. 100%. Nothing like childhood days playing in the neighborhood.

Caved today and installed.

December January February March

Different thunderstorm complex. This one got going in Wisconsin.

Wild night out west. A ton of wind reports.

So disappointed I couldn’t get out there. One day earlier and it would have been perfect.

I should be out there

Ugh, missed opportunity for me. I wouldn’t be able to make it there in time due to work.

Honest to God part of me wants to pack up and head to Ohio to chase…

Henri?

Those are great shots.

Feel better

It’s a pretty big signal. Hard to believe we’re about a third of the way through June. The next six weeks are huge for the MDR with regard to warming.

This tweet brings up an excellent point. It was certainly impactful in the rainfall department, but in the Gulf it never quite got organized enough to get classified as a named entity.

From underperforming in the Gulf, to overperforming in the Atlantic. Tropical Storm Alex Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022 1100 PM AST Sun Jun 05 2022 The satellite presentation of Alex has evolved from a more classic sheared tropical cyclone this morning to that of an extratropical transitioning cyclone. There are still some fragments of convection near the center, but most of the shower and thunderstorm activity is well removed from the center in a band around the eastern portion of the circulation. This change in structure is due to an approaching mid- to upper-level trough and associated dry air that has become entrained into the circulation. Air Force reconnaissance aircraft observations and data from NOAA buoy 41048 indicate that Alex is slightly stronger. Reports from a center drop from the aircraft showed that the pressure had fallen to around 984 mb, and the buoy reported a peak one-minute wind of 52 kt at 4 meters. Based on these data the initial intensity has been set at 60 kt. However, the cyclone may already be beginning to fill as the latest reconnaissance aircraft pass through the center reported that the pressure had risen 4 mb. Alex will be moving over cooler waters and into a higher shear environment during the next 12-24 hours, therefore weakening should commence very soon. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF suggest the system will struggle to redevelop deep convection near the center and the system is now forecast to become post-tropical by 24 hours, if not sooner. The global model guidance now also indicates that the post-tropical cyclone will be absorbed along a frontal boundary as a new baroclinic low develops from a strong mid-latitude trough moving southeastward from Atlantic Canada in a day or two. As a result, the new NHC forecast calls for absorption within the new low within 48 hours. Alex is moving 060/24 kt. The cyclone should remain on a general east-northeastward motion during the next day or so, with the center passing north of Bermuda on Monday. The new forecast is again faster than the previous advisory and lies near a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Alex is forecast to pass near or just north of Bermuda on Monday, and tropical storm conditions are expected on the island late tonight and Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 32.5N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 33.7N 65.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 35.3N 60.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 07/1200Z 37.4N 54.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 08/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Brown

Should be up to 55kts now based on dropsonde.

This recon mission is actually pretty interesting. As the NHC notes in their 11am discussion, while the FL winds are quite impressive for a storm with this kind of organization, the winds have not translated down as efficiently. This would be making a run as a hurricane if they did. We'll see if that happens before the intensification window closes tonight.

Up to 60mph now. Someone update the thread to reflect this is a legit tropical storm now pls.