WxWatcher007

Tropical folks probably shouldn't post here That said, even without a hurricane (Gloria '85/Bob '91) we've been on a relative heater with impactful tropical. Setting aside last season (post-tropical Ida and MEHenri), we've had Isaias '20, Sandy '12, and Irene '11. That's not bad for a region with some of the longest tropical return times in the US.

We have an invest with the strong tropical wave that left the coast of Africa this weekend. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern tropical Atlantic south of the Cabo Verde islands is associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development of this system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic, and a tropical depression could form around the middle to latter part of this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Papin The GFS is most aggressive with development so far, while the other operational guidance have nothing noteworthy and a modest ensemble signal for development. As is usually the case with these early systems, there's high uncertainty 10 days out let alone 5. That means the long range weenie or totally dead runs are pretty meaningless. It is convectively active, but we'll need to see if there's any meaningful organization taking place in the next few days.

I knew the weenies would come out At least the GFS finally threw some chum in the water for us.

Let’s save the annual morality debate until there’s actually a storm please.

Same here. Brutal.

Looking north toward the cell near Springfield

I have this, thanks. I’m basically looking for 1999-2022 anomalies.

Big heat here today. High of 95.5 so far.

I said on July 31 that things were starting to look better as we approach mid-month, and today we are gradually seeing conditions improve. It's happening fastest in the western Atlantic and it's much slower in the eastern Atlantic. We're not quite at a broadly favorable environment yet, but the dead pattern from late July has ended in my estimation. First, we're starting to see the basin moisten. This is critical, both for allowing moisture and instability to build. Unlike a few weeks ago, we are seeing convective activity. There's still a lot of dry air in the central and eastern Atlantic, but there's just enough space for two robust waves, one of which has a chance to develop. Rather than look at the entire basin again, I just want to highlight three areas worth watching with a casual eye. 1. Orange in the eastern MDR This is the best chance of tropical genesis in the next 10 days. The NHC has designated a wave that left the coast of Africa yesterday with 40% odds to develop in the next five days. Again, we're looking at the wave closest to Africa here. Critically, there is a leading wave that is convectively active, helping to moisten the environment. Shear has relaxed in the region, SSTs are decent, and as a result the guidance has had a solid signal for TC genesis in the last few days on operational and ensemble guidance. The Euro operational has backed off a bit on development, but it looks like the GFS is leading right now with a more accurate depiction of the activity off Africa so far. That has limited utility as we need to see if there's actual organization that can take place in the next couple of days, but for now, it's worth watching. I'd place odds of development at 50%. 2. Atlantic Coast (next weekend) This one is a longer shot for development, but both operational and ensemble guidance has had a signal for a deep trough to come off the coast this weekend and spur the development of a low. If something could cutoff or pop further south near the Carolinas, there could be some subtropical development. This signal looks more baroclinic in nature, could be something to watch for fun if you're a weenie like me as we get closer to the weekend. I'd place odds of development at 15%. 3. Gulf of Mexico (late week?) Finally, there's not much of a signal here as the GFS tries to bring a small area of vorticity into the Gulf midweek. It goes over a maxima of OHC in the area, so if there's less shear than expected maybe something quick could spin up. Nothing worth taking seriously at the moment. I'd place odds of development at 5%.

Is there a place where I can get detailed historical SST plots for the region? This is OT from the heat/humidity/drought, but 26C seems much further north than usual, though there's no depth under that.

Agree. Certainly nothing in the modern era (though I'm not as strong with my memory lol) and not in an age where it's so easy to designate short duration systems. At any rate, the 0/0/0 thing is a red herring. I still believe it'll be above average, but an underperformer is still on the table if we can't get instability to pick up in the eastern and central Atlantic (which I think it will, though not drastically enough to be hyperactive). It's getting better, but it's still very ugly out in the tropical Atlantic. You can't sugarcoat that. I think the western Atlantic is almost a lock to be active in late August and into September however, where virtually everything that speaks to an active period seems aligned. The caveat is the location of troughs that could make shear unfavorable for development from time to time, but that's normal. If you get strong AEWs into the western Atlantic, even with an underperforming tropical Atlantic, things will pop in this environment. I feel very confident saying that. Keep in mind that in recent years the bulk of high end activity has been focused in the western Atlantic and Caribbean. Models failing to explicitly show tropical genesis at this range means fairly little to me right now when looking at the overall western Atlantic environment. SST Anomaly OHC Instability--note how the environment is rebounding after the nadir in late July. Vertical Shear (850-200mb)--same as above: look at how the environment has broadly improved significantly since the truly dead pattern in July. Preseason is over. The climate models have limited utility at this point IMO. Global ensembles are going to need to be used in tandem with current environment analysis. Ensembles will show signals, and the environment will show whether the signal is noise or presents a tangible threat.

And I usually don’t take the bait, but that’s just outrageously unlikely.

0/0/0 in September ain’t happening. You can book that.

When it comes to shear, the intensity and direction can matter a lot. For most systems, light shear can be overcome, but moderate to high shear can keep an Invest from developing and hold even well developed systems in check. Sometimes, the direction of shear can actually help the low ventilate and strengthen. A great recent example of this was Isaias, which muddled along in the western Atlantic and was first sheared by a with southwesterly shear until it started changing its direction to the NNE, which allowed for the shear to become a help rather than a hinderance. Here, while there is definitely shear around, it looks like the wave is going to come off Africa at a low enough latitude where shear shouldn't be too much of an issue early on. (image time sensitive) I think the bigger issues early on may be mid-level dry air and some residual instability and fast forward motion, with shear an issue by the time it gets to the Antilles. Our orange needs convection and a nice moisture envelope to develop the way the GFS tries to predict. (Image time sensitive) It's a messy image, but note the central Atlantic near the islands. There's an upper low that imparts some significant westerly/SW shear on the low and it really tears it up. This far out though, those kind of placements really are hard to predict accurately.

It’s really the best!

I love the cam. Does it come with a time lapse feature or did you have to put that together yourself?

Just came across this

No time to waste with my move scheduled for next week. Out here redoing the walkway and laying paver base. Rough heat but it actually feels pretty good to be dripping sweat. It’s how I know I’m alive.

Lemon on the wave expected to move off Africa this weekend.

…annnnd we’re back. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa later this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development of this system while it moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic during the early to middle part of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Reinhart

Congratulations

Dream climate for Kev?

Yeah, the signal was subtle but may be getting stronger. Let’s see what rolls off Africa.

It looks like they moved the daily plots behind a wall about a month ago, which is a damn shame. You could really see how things lined up compared to past years.

It will. I think.