WxWatcher007

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 17:48ZAgency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306 Storm Name: LeeStorm Number & Year: 13 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 12Observation Number: 03 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 10th day of the month at 17:29:30ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 21.95N 61.35WB. Center Fix Location: 392 statute miles (631 km) to the NE (51°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,728m (8,950ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 956mb (28.23 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 310° at 4kts (From the NW at 5mph)F. Eye Character: ClosedG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 94kts (108.2mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SW (226°) of center fix at 17:25:00ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 312° at 80kts (From the NW at 92.1mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the SW (226°) of center fix at 17:22:30ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 99kts (113.9mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the NE (47°) of center fix at 17:34:30ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 143° at 112kts (From the SE at 128.9mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NE (47°) of center fix at 17:35:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and PressureS. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 112kts (~ 128.9mph) which was observed 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NE (47°) from the flight level center at 17:35:00Z Maximum Flight Level Temp: 17°C (63°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the SW (227°) from the flight level center

1.67 and counting in last 65 minutes

Absolutely ripping

It’s worth watching. Always was.

That’s the kind of cross guidance shift needed to legitimately put NE in the game.

No change in my thoughts on track this morning.

Easiest bet all weekend.

Nice storm here right now

“can’t take care of his own mother” Just another level

This, 100%. Let’s see what 00z does

A lot of thunder for .09” of rain today. Hopefully the glorified nor’easter can deliver the goods next week.

Not yet.

0.00”

I don’t think much has changed IMO. Long shot for NE (~5% SNE/15% Cape & ENE) with significantly greater risk for Atlantic Canada (40%) and OTS (40%) squarely on the table. I know people want answers now or to put their flag in the ground, but the truth is it’s going to take more time to have true forecast clarity of all the critical elements determining the long term track. Can’t latch onto any one op run or even an individual model suite yet.

I don’t think much has changed IMO. Long shot for NE (~5% SNE/15% Cape & ENE) with significantly greater risk for Atlantic Canada (40%) and OTS (40%) squarely on the table.

There’s that but the trough at 144 pulls out quickly and the one behind it is far more favorable for a slingshot north. I’d still keep the odds at what I had the other day. A lot of moving pieces and the euro is on its own after a really big run to run shift.

I’d need to see this on the ensembles a few days before buying. With the other guidance shifting west.

900 mile shift in one run? We toss. For now. Models did this with Franklin too.

lol euro

Model ain’t what it used to be

What the hell is the Euro doing? It was missing Newfoundland at 00z

Nino ENSO also tends to favor MDR recurves. It’s not a surprise, other than it was a good synoptic pattern with a storm going north too far east. This is a very different conversation of this got to 75W but we deal in reality not what ifs.

Not really a believer in that one being a contender. They’ll be a weakness somewhere. Homebrew or bust.

I’m not sure they would have fully rebounded given the track and intensity of Franklin, but I agree that where the upwelling happens matters. Gulf and Caribbean always cook.