WxWatcher007

We're talking and doing the analysis of course, but I still think we're not going to have a good sense of this one until it gets into the SW Atlantic. Also interesting to note that with greater ridging across the Atlantic, this run of the GFS takes 92L across the basin and off the Bahamas in about 10 days. Even forces it SW. If the ridging is really coming on like that, that's interesting.

I still think this is a Maritime Canada/OTS risk. Maybe 55% Canada/45% OTS. Just not seeing the cutoff troughing we need on the models, and every mile east after DR/Haiti makes it less likely it ever hooks back west enough for NE IMO. I'd want to see smoothing of that hook north of the Antilles as the first step to even be in the game.

It's like folks along the Gulf Coast having an annual thread for winter storms. Except for Maritime Canada. They're on a heater recently. This one looks legit for them.

12z GFS with its strongest run yet. All systems go as soon as this closes off.

Yep, PTC 9 coming at 11am. Expecting to see watches/warnings up for the coast.

Same. I thought they named 91L but then I was like wait what?!? After all the defending I do of the NHC they do this to me.

Really want to see what recon finds during the early afternoon, but this looks to be organizing at a solid pace currently. Not sure I see any westerlies yet, but with convection trying to fire near the MLC if this does get a robust LLC it could pick up the organizational pace.

A day late, but the peak forecast is coming

Emily was legit. Gert was name worthy for like 14 minutes.

Emily was legit for a while. Gert makes little sense to me but I think it’s scientifically valid I guess

It’s gradually getting its act together, still. I’m thinking PTC at 11am because this is still a little broad. Would need to organize a little faster though imo to have a reasonable shot to maximize potential. First viz will be telling. Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91): Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located over the central Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form before it reaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline on Tuesday. Interests in southern Texas and northern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system as tropical storm watches or warnings are likely to be issued later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Well it looks like all three pieces of the former monsoon trough got named

Gotta watch what happens with that potential CAG in the Gulf/W. Caribbean at the end of the month.

This thread is always good for some laughs

Franklin with an absolutely epic tower going up right now.

Love it

I have a hard time seeing this coming apart before hitting one of the islands given how resilient it has been so far in the face of shear/dry air.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Six, located several hundred miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, on Tropical Storm Emily, located about 1000 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, and on newly formed Tropical Storm Franklin, located over the eastern Caribbean Sea. 1. Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91): Showers and thunderstorms have increased this evening, and are becoming better organized in association with a trough of low pressure located in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for development of this system as it moves westward at about 15 to 20 mph across the central Gulf of Mexico. A tropical depression or storm is likely to form as it approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by Tuesday. Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical storm watches or warnings may be necessary on Monday for portions of the southern Texas and northern Mexico coastlines. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. 2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is associated with a tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week while it moves west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

I would definitely watch up there.