WxWatcher007

That GFS run is cold too. Much of next week is below freezing here verbatim.

Love seeing the signal for the 19-20th continue as well.

I don’t think anyone is saying they don’t want snowpack, it’s just that it’s not necessary for having a good winter subjectively. That’s my genuine answer hand to God. If I needed weeks and weeks of snowpack to be happy here I’d be miserable more often than not more seasons than not. That’s my climo here in the valley lowlands. As you know it’s different up there. I can easily see how pack matters to you. It’s normal to have it there.

Yep, just need to keep getting production. The 20th continues being one to watch too.

Canadian gets it done too with a bit of a scraper.

It was always about hydro. Big, big hydro.

Right. Adding data to my post, since I moved back for the 2018-19 season I’ve recorded continuous snowpack at my location at or above ten days twice.

I’m with wolfie on this. Retention is becoming a fraud five here lol. Quebec can barely hold snowpack these days and we’re attaching the subjective quality of our winters on snow retention??? Good luck with that.

Hydro issues around CT. Multiple rivers at major flood stage.

Peak rainfall rate of 2.54” but that was brief. Pack obliterated but the inversion held.

@STILL N OF PIKE wagons west of the GFS is right…

Howling aloft but nothing high end on the ground here.

52.5° 1.38” 989.3mb

Connecticut... ...Fairfield County... Stamford 60 MPH 1026 PM 01/09 CWOP Fairfield 57 MPH 1105 PM 01/09 CWOP Greenwich 54 MPH 1100 PM 01/09 CWOP Fairfield 48 MPH 1055 PM 01/09 CWOP Bridgeport 45 MPH 1054 PM 01/09 NOS-NWLON ...Middlesex County... Middletown 46 MPH 1040 PM 01/09 MESOWEST ...New Haven County... Hammonasset 46 MPH 1053 PM 01/09 WXFLOW ...New London County... Groton Airport 45 MPH 1053 PM 01/09 ASOS

Looks like it’s strengthening a bit in SW CT too.

50.2° 1.23” 991.9mb

Wiz’s line needs to rock

Watertown delivers. Wish I were there.

lol we torch 44.1/42 .64” with wind picking up. Just shy of a 5 degree temp spike in 30 minutes.

43 at HFD and 39 here. .56” so far

People are broken, and I’m not even joking.

Here’s the whole wind discussion (still think hydro is the headline) Strong winds... Hi-res guidance is indicating 80-90 kt low level jet at 925 mb across SE New Eng, peaking 06-10z and moving east of the Cape by 12z. This jet peaks at 5-6SD above normal and the NAEFS ensemble mean 850 mb wind is greater than the maximum of the CFSR climate database for this time of year. While this is a very strong signal for strong to damaging wind, there is some uncertainty with how much wind will mix down due to low level inversion which is usually the case with S/SE flow. One strong signal that we normally see with damaging S/SE wind events is anomalous low pres tracking to the west with strong pressure falls. We certainly have this for this event. In fact, guidance is forecasting 8-11 mb pres falls in 3 hours late tonight which is quite impressive and this will help to enhance the winds due to the isallobaric acceleration. Our current thinking is peak gusts 55-65 mph near the south coast through SE MA and Cape Ann, focused in the midnight to 6 am period. An examination of model soundings indicate that we need to reach the mid 50s to erode inversion enough to support these gusts. If temps only reach lower 50s, winds will probably underperform with gusts more in the 45-55 mph range. The other wildcard is all the hi-res guidance sources are indicating some sort of fine line moving through 08-12z which will help to enhance wind gusts. In fact, CSU machine learning severe wx probs are indicating a low risk of severe wind. Overall, we think this wind event will not be quite as strong as the Dec 17-18 storm as the low level jet is a bit weaker and not as expansive. Less wind further inland across interior northern and western MA as snowpack will help to keep temps cooler (mainly mid/upper 40s) keeping inversion in place. Expecting peak gusts mainly 35-45 mph here.

It’s time to get back to tracking snow.

@weatherwiz the NAM has a line of big inland gusts on that convective line early morning.