WxWatcher007

11:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 27Location: 16.4°N 78.2°WMoving: W at 3 mphMin pressure: 908 mbMax sustained: 165 mph Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Melissa has the classic strong hurricane appearance in satellite imagery this morning, with a well-defined 10-nm wide eye embedded in a central dense overcast with cloud tops colder than -80C. The hurricane also has a large complex of outer banding over the eastern semicircle and a circulation that covers most of the Caribbean west of 70 degrees west longitude. Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate the central pressure has fallen to near 908 mb, with both aircraft releasing dropsondes in the northeastern eyewall that support an initial intensity of 145 kt. The NOAA aircraft left the storm early after experiencing severe turbulence in the southwestern eyewall. The eye is wobbling around due to the slow motion, but the best estimate of the initial motion is 270/3 kt. The mid-level ridge north of Melissa is weakening as a deep-layer mid-latitude trough moves eastward through the southeastern United States. This should cause the hurricane to turn northward during the next 12 h or so at a continued slow forward speed. After 24 h, Melissa should turn northeastward with some increase in forward speed as the mid-latitude westerly flow becomes the dominant steering mechanism. This general motion should continue for the rest of the forecast period. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa will be near or over Jamaica late tonight or early Tuesday, cross eastern Cuba Tuesday night or early Wednesday, and then move near or over the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos on Wednesday. After that, the cyclone could reach the vicinity of Bermuda on Thursday night. The new forecast track has some minor adjustments from the previous track and is a blend of the HFIP Corrected Consensus, the Google DeepMind ensemble mean, and the other consensus models. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 12-24 h due to the possibility that Melissa will start an eyewall replacement cycle. However, this is unlikely to weaken Melissa significantly, and there is no practical difference in Melissa making landfall in Jamaica at category 4 or 5 intensity, since both categories produce catastrophic wind damage. After reaching Jamaica, a combination of land interaction and increasing southwesterly shear should cause some weakening, although Melissa is still forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches Cuba. Once over the Atlantic, stronger shear should cause more substantial weakening, and Melissa is expected to become extratropical by the end of the forecast period. The new intensity forecast has minor adjustments from the previous and follows the trend of the intensity consensus. Key Messages: 1. Jamaica: Do not venture out of your safe shelter. Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely today through Tuesday. Catastrophic winds in the eyewall have the potential to cause total structural failure especially in higher elevation areas tonight and early Tuesday. This will result in extensive infrastructural damage, long-lasting power and communication outages, and isolated communities. Life-threatening storm surge and damaging waves are expected along the southern coast through Tuesday. 2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti and southern portions of the Dominican Republic through midweek. In Haiti, extensive infrastructural damage and isolation of communities is likely. Tropical storm conditions are expected late Tuesday and Wednesday. 3. Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall with life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and landslides is expected beginning today. Life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are expected late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Preparations should be rushed to completion. 4. Southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Hurricane conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are possible on Wednesday. Residents should follow advice given by local officials and be sure to have preparations complete by Tuesday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 16.4N 78.2W 145 KT 165 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 16.9N 78.3W 145 KT 165 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 17.8N 77.9W 140 KT 160 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 19.1N 76.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 20.8N 75.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 30/0000Z 23.0N 73.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 25.9N 71.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 34.3N 63.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 42.8N 50.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven

I’m guessing we have slightly more intensification reflected on the 11am, but idk. This was easily a 5 in my book on that first pass early this morning.

Low of 28.7 here at WXW1

Yeah recon shows no evidence of weakening. Probably the opposite at this hour. I mean, expect another 2-4mb drop on the next pass. The ERC will happen eventually, but it’s not right now.

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Wind: 152kts (~ 174.9mph) which was observed 5 nautical miles to the N (358°) from the flight level center at 7:05:00Z Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... SAWTOOTH APPEARANCE AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING PRESENT ALONG NORTHERN EYEWALL

918.9mb extrap

This is probably going to be a really impressive SW to NE pass.

Wilma is one of one.

Keeping in mind the whole SFMR accuracy thing that I discussed last season, but still, very impressive. Would like to see a clean NE—SW pass.

Zero doubt this is a 5 to me. Batch of 143-144 FL and unflagged SFMR of 135, 150, and 159kt.

I don’t think the NHC could pull the trigger on a C5 with that little center data. Recon needs time to confirm imo.

I’m thinking this is probably a 5, but recon needs more time to confirm.

2:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 Location: 16.3°N 77.7°W Moving: W at 5 mph Min pressure: 926 mb Max sustained: 150 mph

923.2mb extrapolated (might not be dead center) Peak FL of 140kt Peak SFMR of 148 SE to NW pass

Well we’re about to find out lol

Total guess, 912mb/145kt (165mph)

I finally got to radar and while the eyewall looks tremendous there is also a huge moat starting to appear.

For posterity

Add this to the list of “what could have been” missions lol Obviously, safety comes first of course.

39 at HFD, 33.4° here at WXW1.

The only possible saving grace right now is that the satellite hasn’t matched observations, but idk how much longer that can hold.

T 8.0 showing up?

Probably perfect timing. This is peaking in satellite appearance. We’ll see if observational data concurs. Unless there’s a slow ERC or this ticks further west or east than expected, I am finding it increasingly hard to believe there won’t be a category five strike.