WxWatcher007

To Tip’s earlier point, irrespective of what happens with Melissa, there is a strong storm signal on the EPS. If there is any tropical infusion it’ll be a hell of a hybrid for us or Atlantic Canada. There are some absolutely nuclear solutions across guidance.

Let’s get this inside 5 days before we’re talking about wind

Clearly a lot to sort out but this might be interesting. October is still hybrid season..

Meanwhile, the euro and hurricane models continue to go nuclear in a few days. Jamaica is in deep trouble.

Yep. A hell of a winter storm just over the border into Canada though verbatim.

I’ll never forgive T-Blizz for complaining his way to a jackpot in the 2022 blizzard while I was shoveling pixie dust.

Maine sent back to the days of being the Massachusetts Bay Colony.

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025 While Melissa continues to produce bursting convection on satellite imagery, with very cold cloud tops down to -95C, there is little evidence these convective bands are wrapping around the center. West-northwesterly shear of 20 to 25 kt is currently preventing the low-level and mid-level circulation centers from aligning. This downshear tilt with height has also been observed by the latest Air Force Reconnaissance mission, which reported significant winds at the surface in their most recent 850 mb center drop. The initial intensity for this advisory is held at 45 kt, taking a blend of recon observations which had a peak wind of 52 kt at 850 mb, and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, ADT, and D-MINT. The wind field of Melissa also remains very asymmetric, as evidence of a recent 1040z RCM-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar pass showing the bulk of tropical-storm-force winds east of the center. The tropical storm has slowed down to a crawl this morning, with the estimated motion at 300/2 kt. The track forecast remains challenging today, and strongly related to the storm's structure in the short-term. For the next 12-24 hours, Melissa is forecast to move very slowly to the northwest as it attempts to move into a weakness produced by an broad upper-level trough centered over the Bahamas. Whether or not it turns more rightward into this weakness is related to the vertical depth the various model guidance is depicting. The 06z GFS run, which is the model that has been on the right side of the guidance envelope for days, shows a more vertically coherent system over the next 24-48 hours, and causes Melissa to abruptly turn northeastward over the next 48 hours. While this appears to be an outlier solution, the Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI) also shows this northeastward motion, and a significant fraction of its ensemble members show the Melissa making landfall on the Island of Hispaniola. However, the remainder of the track guidance, including the ECMWF and its ensemble mean, suggest that Melissa will remain misaligned and move more slowly north-northwest over the next couple of days. The NHC track solution slightly favors the latter scenarios, lying just east of the ECMWF mean, out of respect of the reliable GDMI aid. After about 60 h, mid-level ridging begins to build back in to the north, and most of the guidance responds by showing a sharp turn westward, albeit still at a snail's pace. The overall track guidance, GFS and GDMI excluded, has shifted left this cycle beyond 72 h, and the NHC track was shifted in that direction, but not as far south and west as the HAFS-A/B regional models. It goes without saying, this is a very challenging track forecast. The intensity forecast has its own share of challenges. At least in the short-term, vertical wind shear is expected to persist between 20 to 30 kt, and will likely prevent Melissa from becoming fully aligned and taking advantage over the very warm 30-31C sea surface temperatures. After about 48 hours, the GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance shows the shear decreasing gradually, but the timing on when the system becomes more vertically coherent varies among both the global and hurricane-regional model guidance. Most of the guidance shows significant or even rapid intensification in days 3-5, and the NHC intensity forecast was raised once again during this time frame, but not as high as the HCCA or hurricane-regional models due to continuity constraints to the previous forecast. The day 5 forecast now shows Melissa becoming a major hurricane, and further upward adjustments may be necessary in subsequent cycles. The intensity forecast is also more uncertain than usual, in large part related to the track uncertainty. Key Messages: 1. Melissa is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica through this weekend, bringing a risk of significant flash flooding and landslides. 2. Hurricane conditions are possible in the southwestern peninsula of Haiti where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Jamaica. Preparations to protect life and property should be completed by Thursday. 3. There is significant uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of Melissa. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and Cuba should continue to monitor the latest forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 14.4N 73.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 14.8N 73.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 15.2N 74.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 15.6N 74.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 16.0N 74.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 25/0000Z 16.3N 74.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 16.5N 74.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 16.6N 75.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 16.4N 77.4W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

Sorry, didn’t mean to derail the thread…

Yeah the shear is unquestionably there currently and will remain, I don’t doubt that, but in a few days as Melissa shifts west and the ULAC becomes the predominant feature, that’s when the window for explosive development is most likely. Still not a guarantee, but looking increasingly likely. Ironically, it’s the 20-30kt of shear now that is keeping Melissa from becoming vertically aligned that will probably lead to a further west track. Melissa can’t muster a sprint into the weakness to its north. From the latest NHC forecast The intensity forecast has its own share of challenges. At least in the short-term, vertical wind shear is expected to persist between 20 to 30 kt, and will likely prevent Melissa from becoming fully aligned and taking advantage over the very warm 30-31C sea surface temperatures. After about 48 hours, the GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance shows the shear decreasing gradually, but the timing on when the system becomes more vertically coherent varies among both the global and hurricane-regional model guidance. Most of the guidance shows significant or even rapid intensification in days 3-5, and the NHC intensity forecast was raised once again during this time frame, but not as high as the HCCA or hurricane-regional models due to continuity constraints to the previous forecast. The day 5 forecast now shows Melissa becoming a major hurricane, and further upward adjustments may be necessary in subsequent cycles. The intensity forecast is also more uncertain than usual, in large part related to the track uncertainty.

Andy isn’t prone to hyperbole—and it’s not hyperbolic if it’s right. The environment for Melissa increasingly looks as high end as you can get in any part of the Atlantic at any time of year. Without the earlier NE turn across Hispaniola, which the ensembles are starting to abandon, this not only gets to an anomalously warm and deep pool of OHC, it likely sits under a substantial ULAC with an anomalous jet streak to the north that will further aid ventilation. Melissa is meandering into a powder keg with a blowtorch.

You’re going to need a hell of a trough for that

I’m still deeply skeptical for here, and don’t think any purely tropical solution is on the table, but if this ends up with a slower and further west track there could be some bend back or hybrid situation as Melissa gets pulled from the Caribbean. To me it’s still all about what troughing looks like at the end of October. Much like the nor’easter earlier in the month you don’t need a direct hit for impacts if it’s going baroclinic/post-tropical.

The trend is not anyone’s friend in Jamaica and Cuba. Melissa has exceptionally high end potential as the only system all season that’s now squarely in the powder keg of the Caribbean.

This is a disaster in waiting in the Caribbean. Melissa could very well be our 3rd C5 of the season. I’m not kidding.

Congrats @Hazey on that euro run

11 hours too late for my forecast but them’s the breaks.

It’s highly unlikely to impact the U.S. but if the trough taps into the moisture feed or even better somehow 98L gets partially absorbed into a big trough we could get some interesting wx, but more boredom is most likely.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Caribbean Sea (AL98): Recent satellite wind data indicate the tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea still lacks a closed circulation, but continues to produce a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms near and to the east of the wave axis. Compared to yesterday, surface observations suggest the circulation is gradually becoming better defined, and environmental conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive for development as the system slows its forward motion. A tropical depression or storm is now likely to form over the next day or two as it moves into the central Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible over portions of the ABC Islands during the next couple of days. Interests in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba should monitor its progress as there is a risk of heavy rain and flooding, strong winds, and rough surf later this week. For addition information on this system, including Gale Warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Papin

No hurricane is coming lol, but the trend with 98L has been further south and west given its overall structure. I do think there’s a legitimate chance that some moisture gets entrained in the end of month trough swinging in from the west, but we’re an eternity away from all that.

Happy birthday! It was a beautiful day. Still working on color here in the CT River Valley but some of the individual trees in town are glorious.

Posted purely for entertainment value. We’ll see if that trough is still there a week from now.

This one is really interesting. It looks to have a more favorable environment in the Caribbean, and there seems to be two camps on the ensembles with one camp turning it northeast pretty soon and the second getting this further west. Too soon to say which one is right. This is a threat in the Caribbean, less clear it can impact the continental US, though I’d watch the troughing in the east at the end of October. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: East of the Windward Islands and the Caribbean Sea (AL98): A tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles east of the Windward Islands is producing a large and persistent area of showers and thunderstorms. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the system still lacks a closed circulation, but is producing winds of 30 to 35 mph north and east of the wave axis. Environmental conditions are expected to limit development during the next couple of days as the system moves quickly westward at 20 to 25 mph, bringing heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the Windward Islands beginning later today and continuing through Monday morning. By the middle to latter part of the week, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form while the system slows down over the central Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Jelsema

Well the Euro would be an all timer. Drought bustah.