WxWatcher007

March 2026? Yeah, always nice but still, rough year. We’re at peak here at WXW2.

Yeah I think we’ll kind of see the signal ebb and flow the next few days. It’s still pretty far out.

I still think this has a subtropical chance but totally agree that there could be severe coastal impacts regardless of designation.

I think that might be more due to 95L creating an escape hatch a la Humberto. The low isn’t exceptionally strong and may be too amplified, (read Tip’s comments in the tropical thread) but the sprawling nature of it and pressure gradient will probably bring some nasty coastal impacts depending on track.

@weatherwiz

Yeah, I’ve been tracking quietly for a few days now for the hybrid aspect.

That signal has been there for a while too, it’s only become more pronounced across guidance this past weekend. Maybe a little hybrid/subtropical with some energy trying to eject out of the Gulf. Track/intensity TBD. Of course, I’m up at WXW2 for the next week if it does come

2013? lol In all seriousness though, might be primed for a hybrid in the coming week to ten days.

Signal for some sort of hybrid or subtropical system off the coast near mid month.

That’s by far the worst spot too given the OHC and reduction in shear. There’s too much shear for the lemon areas in the Gulf right now, but the tropical Atlantic wave is likely to develop given how convectively active it continues to be and the CAG could very well produce 1-2 TCs (more likely 1 imo).

That’s fascinating stuff

Beautiful day

I’m cool with that. Op would just need to change the title.

Thinking the tropical Atlantic wave could be thread worthy tomorrow. Signal for it continues to be robust.

Anyone know how to contact @Kevin W? His PMs are full.

Interesting. It was relatively cool up here with BDL only +.9. Needed AN the last 8 days of the month just to get there.

Low of 41.1 here in EH

Posted my thoughts in the main thread but I think the tropical wave has robust support and a favorable environment for development. The lemon off the SE coast is limited by land and time. But a quick spin up is possible.

I recognize that this is not a real contribution, but I would sign for this.

Just adding to this. I think our window for something purely tropical is closed. With each passing day in October climo makes it so. But given the troughing we’ve seen and the possibility for a CAG ejecting something or stalled front induced coastal low off the SE coast later in the month some sort of hybrid wouldn’t be a pipe dream. We’ve actually done very well in recent years getting at least one October coastal with a little tropical influence.

Wow that cold?

Hybrid

Took a minute to pull together, but here's my latest analysis. We're far from done.

We've made it to October, and with Imelda in its final act and just under three weeks left in the peak season forecast, it's time to take a look at what comes next. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 10 (4) Hurricanes: 6 (3) Major Hurricanes: 3 (2) Fernand, Gabrielle (MH), Humberto (MH), Imelda (H) First, there's still plenty of potential left in the basin. Although climo is quickly shifting westward, we still see robust AEWs moving into the basin, and one of those will actually be an area of interest discussed below. Yes, there is dry air/SAL in the tropical Atlantic, but look at the ITCZ and the convection we have there. This will go a long way toward ensuring the survival of the coming waves. A key part of what happens the rest of the period will center around intraseasonal forcing. Will the MJO remain in a favorable state for TC genesis and landfall risk? Will we get a CCKW that enhances the opportunity for waves to develop? The signals are mixed, but I think we will remain in a favorable period overall through the end of October. As I stated in my peak season forecast, I still think we rapidly end the season at the end of the month however. In terms of getting more NS and H, the basin continues to be primed for it, with SST anomalies still robust throughout the Atlantic. As we shift toward activity in the climo favored spots off the SE coast, Gulf, and Caribbean--especially the western Caribbean, there is plenty of fuel for low to moderate end activity. The picture becomes more complicated when looking at high end activity, however. To be sure, there is plenty of OHC, especially in the western part of the basin. But a deeper look shows that there are more localized regions where higher end activity is more likely. I don't think this changes much, but we definitely have to watch out for another potential MH if it gets into these zones of anomalously high OHC. Finally, we have been extremely lucky that nothing has formed in the Caribbean. Between anomalously high OHC and exceptionally low shear, we've been avoiding disaster--seriously. Now that climo is shifting into this region, we need to closely monitor 1) the development of a CAG by mid-October and 2) any tropical waves getting to the Caribbean. There is a strong signal for anomalously low wind shear to return--though this year has been incredibly conducive in the wind shear category. Alright, so what are we watching? I have three areas of interest. 1. Tropical Atlantic Wave The Tropical Atlantic has been more of a bust this season as expected, in large part due to the prevalence of dry and stable air along with SAL. This has been an issue throughout the decade. However, those conditions are more limited now, and an active wave train has moistened a good part of the MDR. There is a strong cross guidance signal that a wave emerges and finds hospitable conditions in the ITCZ. This should eventually lead to some level of development, as evidenced by the models. I am bullish on development. 2. SE Coast/Gulf This is the second lemon by the NHC, and it's no surprise given that there has been a signal for a few days now. In the wake of Imelda, we have a boundary that is left behind, and along it we have some vorticity trying to spin up. Now, whether that becomes a low is unclear, but we do know that climo starts to favor these kinds of things in October. The limiting factors are proximity to land, and time. Whatever develops should cross Florida and into the Gulf, but is unlikely to meander there with time to develop into anything serious. This probably has a decent chance of development, though not nearly as high as area #1. It's worth a casual eye. 3. Caribbean CAG This is the one to watch, even though there isn't a significant development signal, yet. Toward the middle of the month, guidance is starting to show the development of a Central American Gyre, which favors slow, but gradual tropical genesis. The CPC has picked up on it, and recent years have shattered the mold on what CAGs can become. Recently, they've become some of our most destructive storms. With wind shear expected to drop significantly and the thermal environment in the Caribbean, along with the increased tendency for troughing in the east around this time, our next significant threat may very well come from this region.

Low of 41.7 here at WXW1