WxWatcher007

Alright, it's time to grade the peak season forecast. As you know, the period between August 20 and October 20 is graded. Melissa, our third category 5 hurricane of the season, was officially designated 11 hours after my forecast ended, but them's the breaks. Here's how the numbers shake out. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 10 (7) Hurricanes: 6 (3) Major Hurricanes: 3 (2) Fernand, Gabrielle (MH), Humberto (MH), Imelda (H), Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo Missing Melissa so closely obviously hurts The numbers were fine overall. The biggest overestimation ended up being the number of hurricanes. This season is truly the definition of quality over quantity, with 60% of the limited hurricane activity consisting of C5s. This is only the second season on record with more than 2 C5s. In 2005 we had four. The overall forecast that we would have a similar peak season lull to 2024, and then have a highly active back half of the peak season was spot on. Even the more specific forecast of activity halting until after September 20 was nailed. That is a huge win, because many were losing confidence that there would even be meaningful activity given the stability issues in the basin. This alone puts me in good shape with the forecast grade, but let's examine each of the factors I analyzed in August. 1. ENSO--I was right that cool ENSO would dominate the season, and that ended up being the case. That wasn't too hard a call given that we were in a Nina watch. The ENSO did end up facilitating lower wind shear in the basin, but the picture is a little more tricky as you'll see below. 2. WAM--I expected an active WAM, but less so than last year where we had so many robust waves that it may have triggered more SAL and stability in the basin. The active WAM is evidenced by the strong waves that continued into October, and gave me some much needed help with my NS forecast at the end of the forecast period. Importantly, it also looks like after the wave that eventually became Melissa that wave train ended, right in alignment with my forecast. 3. Wind shear--this is the first spot where I really ding myself. I was right that shear would be on the lower side off the east coast and Caribbean, and that was true. Off the east coast, note the higher than normal shear in part of September and then the drop in late September into October. Decent. The Caribbean, however, was a powder keg waiting to explode. We see that now with Melissa being the only tangible wave to get to the Caribbean. I was dead wrong when I thought that anti-cyclonic wave breaking wouldn't be an issue in the basin this season. It was, and led to all of the TUTTs that absolutely gutted the basin of activity during the first 2/3 of September. Once that subsided, the basin lit up. 4. SST/OHC--the second biggest call of the season was accurately predicting that the defining feature of the season would be activity in the SW Atlantic. The Atlantic SST distribution became favorable for activity right before peak season, and it produced. If anything, we underperformed given the complete lack of activity in the Caribbean and Gulf, which I didn't anticipate to this extent. Erin's wake recovered, as I expected, and we saw high end activity in the SW Atlantic during the period. 5. MJO & CCKW--As expected, things became a lot more favorable once the MJO flipped to favorable the second half of the peak. The dates do not line up perfectly with my peak season forecast but as Phil Klotzbach notes 2025 is tied with 1941 and 2024 for the most Atlantic major hurricane formations (3 including Melissa) between Sept 22 and Oct 25. More on point, since 1970, only 7 seasons have had 5+ NS between Sept 17 and October 9, 2024 and 2025 are two of them. 6. Stability, dry air, and SAL--I really was a believer that the stability issues that we've had this decade in the tropical Atlantic would be an inhibitor early in the forecast period, and that was really right. That will be a key factor in the overall numbers being lower for some seasonal forecasts. This has been very hard to overcome in August and September in the eastern Atlantic. That said, this statement was proven to be right: The activity would follow the wave train moistening the environment and waves getting to the western Atlantic. Surprisingly, we didn't get Gulf for Caribbean activity. Even the CAG signal that was present on the models at the start of October didn't work out. Odd, but the SW Atlantic was still a hub of activity. Overall I called for a significant lull akin to 2024, followed by another high end and backloaded peak season. Two major hurricanes, one a C5, certainly fits the bill for effectively a four week peak. It seems as if the season will rapidly shut down after Melissa (again, outside the forecast period), but that seems to be another good call. There may be an uptick in the NS numbers with that possible subtropical event off the Mid-Atlantic a few weeks ago, but we grade as the numbers are as of October 20. I thought the Gulf would be quieter, but not completely dead. I called for a hurricane strike on the east coast and that missed, but only because we had a rare fujiwara interaction between Imelda off the southeast coast and Humberto, which unexpectedly rapidly intensified into a C5. We did not continue our streak of continental US MH landfalls. Fine by me. Grade: B+ Seasonal Grades 2019 Grade: B+ 2020 Grade: A- 2021 Grade: C 2022 Grade: B 2023 Grade: A 2024 Grade: B 2025 Grade: B+

11:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 27Location: 16.4°N 78.2°WMoving: W at 3 mphMin pressure: 908 mbMax sustained: 165 mph Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Melissa has the classic strong hurricane appearance in satellite imagery this morning, with a well-defined 10-nm wide eye embedded in a central dense overcast with cloud tops colder than -80C. The hurricane also has a large complex of outer banding over the eastern semicircle and a circulation that covers most of the Caribbean west of 70 degrees west longitude. Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate the central pressure has fallen to near 908 mb, with both aircraft releasing dropsondes in the northeastern eyewall that support an initial intensity of 145 kt. The NOAA aircraft left the storm early after experiencing severe turbulence in the southwestern eyewall. The eye is wobbling around due to the slow motion, but the best estimate of the initial motion is 270/3 kt. The mid-level ridge north of Melissa is weakening as a deep-layer mid-latitude trough moves eastward through the southeastern United States. This should cause the hurricane to turn northward during the next 12 h or so at a continued slow forward speed. After 24 h, Melissa should turn northeastward with some increase in forward speed as the mid-latitude westerly flow becomes the dominant steering mechanism. This general motion should continue for the rest of the forecast period. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa will be near or over Jamaica late tonight or early Tuesday, cross eastern Cuba Tuesday night or early Wednesday, and then move near or over the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos on Wednesday. After that, the cyclone could reach the vicinity of Bermuda on Thursday night. The new forecast track has some minor adjustments from the previous track and is a blend of the HFIP Corrected Consensus, the Google DeepMind ensemble mean, and the other consensus models. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 12-24 h due to the possibility that Melissa will start an eyewall replacement cycle. However, this is unlikely to weaken Melissa significantly, and there is no practical difference in Melissa making landfall in Jamaica at category 4 or 5 intensity, since both categories produce catastrophic wind damage. After reaching Jamaica, a combination of land interaction and increasing southwesterly shear should cause some weakening, although Melissa is still forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches Cuba. Once over the Atlantic, stronger shear should cause more substantial weakening, and Melissa is expected to become extratropical by the end of the forecast period. The new intensity forecast has minor adjustments from the previous and follows the trend of the intensity consensus. Key Messages: 1. Jamaica: Do not venture out of your safe shelter. Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely today through Tuesday. Catastrophic winds in the eyewall have the potential to cause total structural failure especially in higher elevation areas tonight and early Tuesday. This will result in extensive infrastructural damage, long-lasting power and communication outages, and isolated communities. Life-threatening storm surge and damaging waves are expected along the southern coast through Tuesday. 2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti and southern portions of the Dominican Republic through midweek. In Haiti, extensive infrastructural damage and isolation of communities is likely. Tropical storm conditions are expected late Tuesday and Wednesday. 3. Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall with life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and landslides is expected beginning today. Life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are expected late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Preparations should be rushed to completion. 4. Southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Hurricane conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are possible on Wednesday. Residents should follow advice given by local officials and be sure to have preparations complete by Tuesday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 16.4N 78.2W 145 KT 165 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 16.9N 78.3W 145 KT 165 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 17.8N 77.9W 140 KT 160 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 19.1N 76.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 20.8N 75.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 30/0000Z 23.0N 73.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 25.9N 71.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 34.3N 63.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 42.8N 50.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven

I’m guessing we have slightly more intensification reflected on the 11am, but idk. This was easily a 5 in my book on that first pass early this morning.

Low of 28.7 here at WXW1

Yeah recon shows no evidence of weakening. Probably the opposite at this hour. I mean, expect another 2-4mb drop on the next pass. The ERC will happen eventually, but it’s not right now.

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Wind: 152kts (~ 174.9mph) which was observed 5 nautical miles to the N (358°) from the flight level center at 7:05:00Z Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... SAWTOOTH APPEARANCE AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING PRESENT ALONG NORTHERN EYEWALL

918.9mb extrap

This is probably going to be a really impressive SW to NE pass.

Wilma is one of one.

Keeping in mind the whole SFMR accuracy thing that I discussed last season, but still, very impressive. Would like to see a clean NE—SW pass.

Zero doubt this is a 5 to me. Batch of 143-144 FL and unflagged SFMR of 135, 150, and 159kt.

I don’t think the NHC could pull the trigger on a C5 with that little center data. Recon needs time to confirm imo.

I’m thinking this is probably a 5, but recon needs more time to confirm.

2:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 Location: 16.3°N 77.7°W Moving: W at 5 mph Min pressure: 926 mb Max sustained: 150 mph

923.2mb extrapolated (might not be dead center) Peak FL of 140kt Peak SFMR of 148 SE to NW pass

Well we’re about to find out lol

Total guess, 912mb/145kt (165mph)

I finally got to radar and while the eyewall looks tremendous there is also a huge moat starting to appear.

For posterity

Add this to the list of “what could have been” missions lol Obviously, safety comes first of course.

39 at HFD, 33.4° here at WXW1.

The only possible saving grace right now is that the satellite hasn’t matched observations, but idk how much longer that can hold.