WxWatcher007

Dropsonde of 903mb

Not officially, but there is certainly a tangible difference between a hurricane with 160mph winds and one with 170/180mph winds.

No hint of an ERC either

Thanks. 912–>910–>907 is pretty substantive.

Anything close to that extrapolated minimum pressure on a dropsonde would be an impressive drop considering the relatively steady state pressures we’ve seen so far.

Thanks, fixed. My bad lol

Right for those lurking/not familiar with tropical—the intermediate advisories do not have a cone change. That happens at 5am, 11am, 5pm, and 11pm ET when the full advisory is issued. That’s also when we get the technical discussions. In addition, the width of the cone is based strictly on historical track error, which is defined before the season. What you’re seeing tonight is not uncommon at all for imminent coastal threats, especially powerful ones. They can drift/meander/wobble. The best way to track the longer term motion is to use radar and recon center fixes. All the way until landfall.

Agree. Like last night it probably needs to get a little deeper into the night for the winds to respond to what we're seeing with convection. Still no evidence of an ERC so I'm inclined to think we peak tonight. Maybe a touch closer to 900mb even (but staying just above).

It's been hard getting TT to work along with the recon sites, Jamaica radar, and satellite pages for me

Both recon flights moving in for a NE to SW pass.

Only 3 this year. There were 4 in 2005.

Well go ahead and bookmark this

I saw this graphic earlier and it really speaks to just how there are levels to this, even among C5s. Even Gabby being on the list shows how impacts increase exponentially based on the intensity of a major hurricane.

I posted earlier that absent an ERC we probably see the peak tonight. Looks like we have dual recon flights inbound so we're going to know a lot soon. I'd be surprised if Melissa hasn't intensified more.

Without looking at anything other than possible landfall location, somewhere between Black River and Savanna la Mar would be my hypothetical chase zone with White House (just inland) as the target/staging area.

I'm late, but I was going to say that in a situation like this I think it's prudent for the NHC to wait until recon is there and collecting data to update intensity. They kind of got burned earlier in Melissa's intensification by declaring an intensity that was a little higher than obs showed (but still in the ballpark using the info they had at the time), and there's no reason to speculate this close to landfall. From Treasure Beach to West End is right about 50 miles as the crow flies. Pretty much my second rule of chasing is no Island Roulette as Josh calls it because there's always the risk that the center will wobble enough to miss a landfall (which to be clear to everyone reading, would be awesome here). The problem here is the sharp turn. We've seen many a storm that once they start hooking poleward, they can lean hard enough into a NE heading that it changes a projected landfall zone. With Melissa gaining latitude now, I think it'll be extremely difficult to avoid a landfall.

It's been a very nice fall. Very happy to see things more stormy as well.

Which worked well for my peak season forecast, though I missed Melissa by 11 hours lol.

I can't access radar so I can't see, but it seems to me that the earlier moat that existed has been filled and we don't have any indication of an ERC? If that is the case, and we do not have an ERC on the table, tonight may actually be the time when Melissa peaks given the diurnal cycle and its impact on the periods of intensification/convective activity we've seen...This structure is as high end as you can get in the basin. It's also worth noting that this is the only part of the basin where something like this is possible. This last image really crystalizes it. As anomalous as it gets for this time of year.

Grading my peak season forecast. Missed Melissa by 11 hours.

Melissa has now surpassed Humberto as the strongest hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season and has the second lowest minimum pressure in the basin since 2016, right behind Milton.