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WxWatcher007

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Everything posted by WxWatcher007

  1. WxWatcher007
    39 at HFD, 33.4° here at WXW1.
  2. WxWatcher007
  3. WxWatcher007
  4. WxWatcher007
    The only possible saving grace right now is that the satellite hasn’t matched observations, but idk how much longer that can hold.
  5. WxWatcher007
    T 8.0 showing up?
  6. WxWatcher007
    Probably perfect timing. This is peaking in satellite appearance. We’ll see if observational data concurs. Unless there’s a slow ERC or this ticks further west or east than expected, I am finding it increasingly hard to believe there won’t be a category five strike.
  7. WxWatcher007
    Huge burst around the center just now. Yikes.
  8. WxWatcher007
    I was just going to post. Just a big burst around the eye and core in the last few minutes. There is another flight that just took off. It’s heading in at the right time..
  9. WxWatcher007
    11:00 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 Location: 16.3°N 77.5°W Moving: W at 5 mph Min pressure: 933 mb Max sustained: 145 mph
  10. WxWatcher007
    Yeah it looks like a wobble SW. Not that it matters at this point but any further south and it'll be tapping into one of the deepest pools of OHC in the basin.
  11. WxWatcher007
    931.7 extrap
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  13. WxWatcher007
    Ha, beat me to it. Impressive drop continues. I'm guessing it'll be another 3-4mb between passes.
  14. WxWatcher007
    Center sonde was 937mb with a 41kt wind
  15. WxWatcher007
    Preview of winter threats?
  16. WxWatcher007
    Recon has descended and will be headed to the center soon.
  17. WxWatcher007
    942mb on the latest VDM
  18. WxWatcher007
    939.9 extrapolated Unflagged 129kt FL and 132kt SFMR.
  19. WxWatcher007
    It’s incredible
  20. WxWatcher007
    I think this would actually be bad timing for an ERC. If anything, you want it close enough to landfall that it can’t rebound from its peak. A cycle now would just expand the wind field and effectively give Melissa 24 hours to potentially RI again. Note how the 06z HAFS both intensify upon final approach.
  21. WxWatcher007
    I think I can speak for everyone when I say I’d rather have my Christmas tree and all the presents catch fire than watch @ORH_wxman chime in a tracking thread with “we need major changes”.
  22. WxWatcher007
    Yeah I don’t think there was any reason to take the winds down, especially when the forecast is for 140kt 24 hours from now.
  23. WxWatcher007
    The first time we go through the ole epic pattern to cutter cycle in December, we’ll see quite a show.
  24. WxWatcher007
    I can’t do this again. We just started going from drought to active, and the storms are already deamplifying and cutting. I’ll leave my family. I’ll sell my house and live with the moose at Fort Kent. I won’t do another sub 20” winter that people pretend isn’t a rat because January was -1.1°. I just can’t do it.
  25. WxWatcher007
    The last dropsonde found surface winds of 111kt with 128kt at 925mb in the northern section of the eyewall, so while potentially a little high, the NHC is in the ballpark. We’ll see what the next recon flight finds.
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