WxWatcher007

Low of 46 here at WXW2. Low of 37 at SLK. We cleared out last night and the temp fell like a rock.

1.31”

1.28”

1.00” of rain at WXW1. Meanwhile it’s 58° and clearing here at WXW2. High of 68.6°. Fall is on the way here.

Fortunately we have a few thousand hours before the start of met winter.

Wagons north for the weenies with the last near decade of futility.

I’m not down there but WXW1 has already picked up .55”.

Yeah I don’t recall seeing anything like that—certainly not recently in the east.

I mean…what can you say Hopefully I can get the peak season forecast done tonight.

A time traveling TC!

Well, that was a bust Peak season forecast will come out this week.

Lala putting on a SHOW!

Congrats Miami on hitting 100°

It’s been fascinating to watch the impact on the structure of the hurricane too. This is the best it’s looked, but once it passes to the west it should get disrupted for a bit.

I’m a sucker for center passes but you are right. The RFQ is hitting dead on. It’s going to be a rough ride for them.

G140 reported at Mauna Kea Summit!! Likely to be a close miss with regard to official landfall for the big island but some significant impacts showing up on damage reports across Hawaii.

Man we need tropical

Unfortunately, it looks like there won't be much if any more recon of Lala as recon is flying back to the mainland. The storm has struggled to organize a tight inner core, which makes it very hard for any kind of meaningful intensification to happen, but it's trying. We knew that would be an uphill battle. This morning's IR loop shows an attempt to wrap convection around the center, which is necessary for a faster pace of organization and intensification. Whether it truly gets there however, remains to be seen. Shear in the immediate vicinity doesn't look too bad at the moment. Lala remains embedded in a very dry environment, and although today it looks like it has more effectively fended off dry air intrusions, any ingestion of that dry air could disrupt an effort to organize and intensify. Marginal SSTs don't help either. All that said, the forecast looks on track. This is a higher end tropical storm, and with time and a somewhat conducive environment for organization and intensification a hurricane is certainly plausible. We're well within radar range now and can now watch for lower level organizational trends. Compared to this morning where there was a well defined but broad and ragged center, now we have what looks like a tightening inner core trying to form. Still, we don't have deep convection wrapping fully, but it's trying. Notice the wobble south too. As a chaser, once you get to this stage every wobble matters (even though you care about the long term movement still). It's still not a guarantee that we see an official landfall here, though impacts will be significant regardless.

Looks like that activity was a mirage. A lot of waves, but extremely hostile conditions. We'll need to see if any of those seedlings can survive into the western Atlantic I guess, but even there conditions don't look great. Might need to wait for better climo to arrive before any breakthrough is possible.

Haha isn’t the lowest at ORH 21.4”? If so I could see a record low in the next 20 years, but not sub 10”. That’d probably mean goose eggs for most of SNE lol.