WxWatcher007

This is year 5. By far my best. I just need one of these to separate and become one a cane lol.

Went with broad 2-4 over CT with more localized 6+ possible depending on where the axis of heavy rain sets up. Expecting a busy day tomorrow.

Go to your very first post and click edit. Up in the 3 dots in the top right of the OP.

WPC update—mod risk SW CT into NYC metro as expected. 12z suite of guidance has narrowed the corridor of expected heavy rainfall that will transpire thanks to a prominent easterly fetch event expected on the northern periphery of an inverted trof in-of the northern Mid-Atlantic coast. The signal for a prolonged heavy rain event has increased markedly over the past 24 hrs with the current deterministic and ensemble mean guidance now pinpointing a swath of 2-4+" rainfall footprint across the NNJ and the adjacent NYC metro and southern NY state towards Poughkeepsie. 12z HREF mean is approaching 3-4" for just the NYC metro which would cause considerable problems due to urban sprawl and inability for rainfall to penetrate the impervious surface. 12z HREF probabilities are also depicting an upper threshold event within some of the probabilistic signatures. 3"/3 hr rainfall probability is exceeding 70% for the NYC area up through the exo-burbs outside the metroplex. 1-2"/hr rainfall rate probabilities are also into the 70-80% territory which is typically found in the most robust setups, usually within a tropical moisture field which is what is expected given the enhanced IVT signatures on global deterministic correlating well with the axis of heavy rainfall. GFS/ECMWF PWAT anomalies are both approaching the 1.5-2 deviations above normal range focused in the corridor of higher forecast QPF. Instability will be lackluster for the most part, but some theta-E advection into coastal NJ, NYC, and Long Island will pose a lower-end convective threat across the region which would only exacerbate flash flooding concerns. The biggest change outside the magnitude of rainfall is the propagation of the main QPF field further inland thanks to the advection of low-mid level moisture being forecast due to very anomalous U-vector wind fields generated from our inverted trof. Enhancement on the NW side of the precip field will be possible Friday morning and early afternoon as the shortwave trough over the Great Lakes pivots into the northern Mid-Atlantic and closes off across northern PA. This would allow for a more dynamic signature within the northern and eastern fringes of the upper-level circulation creating localized banding structures over the terrain as depicted by a few hi-res deterministic. This is one of the reasons we see secondary and tertiary maxes within the general QPF forecast from deterministic as banding structures will be found during the event evolution. Local maxes between 6-8" will be plausible across the outlined Moderate area and even within the confines of the SLGT risk. This has evolved into a higher impact potential and will be monitored closely for future updates to the orientation of the MOD risk with coordination from the local FO's involved.

That’s odd. It looks fine on my end. Do you see it now?

That’s just through 12z Saturday

Probability matched mean

Both the 48hr mean and PMM are ugly.

Agree but how big is big. I can see an upward bound of 5-7? If places are going above that it’ll get really ugly, especially if that’s over the big September rain zone.

Things only said in the fall lol

In striking distance of topping July. Sitting at 10.59” for the month currently. I kind of think high res is over amped, but a solid 1-3 over the region seems reasonable to me.

45? 2020 was solid. My expectations are just zero between time in DC and returning to this streak of well BN snow.

Love ya but I hear it every year and last winter I finished with 13.7”. I’ll believe it’s not a bad winter when I hit climo. 30.0, 15.6, 44.4, 28.8, 13.7

It’s an excellent setup for big rains. Guessing we see a WPC mod risk at some point.

The lemon developed. Unclear what the next opportunity for TC genesis is but I think this is probably it for MDR systems. Once Philippe and Rina separate, one of them may thrive for a bit. 13 NS since Aug 20 is a record. WxWatcher007 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 13 (13) Hurricanes: 6 (5) Major Hurricanes: 3 (3) Emily, Franklin (MH), Gert, Harold, Idalia (MH), Jose, Katia, Lee (MH), Margot (H), Nigel (H), Ophelia, Philippe, Rina

Sorry for your loss.

Someone is going to get smoked. What a tremendous period for hydro.

Fall has been here. A warm period doesn’t change that.

That would make my September wetter than my July…in a more compressed time frame (my first September precip occurred on Sept 8) I tried mowing my backyard today and it was a cranberry bog.

Low of 40.3°

Coldest low tonight since May here?

Honestly, I just want a more normal season. Nothing has been normal lately.

Just raze every town and forest to my NW and build a heated Great Lake.

In a slot. 2.31” today and 2.80” overall.