WxWatcher007

Yeah I thought the model performance as a whole was better than usual but the reality is more messy.

Yup

Really fascinating stuff here OFCL=NHC HFAI=HAFS-A HFBI=HAFS-B HWFI=HWRF HMNI=HMON CTCI=COAMPS-TC

Agree with the other ERC comments, and it’s also true that sometimes rather than fully contracting and trying to reach a new peak in winds, a storm will use its reorganization to expand the wind field. That seems to be the case here. It did get close to C4 again at one point, but then the wind field just kept expanding. It’s dramatically larger than before.

Latest MW

4.34” in last four days

At 18z Saturday. Just a wee bit of difference.

Euro west at 00z. GFS east at 06z. lol

Just interesting to see the Euro/EPS make these kind of shifts. 00z GFS was west, but only a tick. About to find out if 06z will come west too.

Will be interesting to see if the Caribou balloon launches lead to changes in guidance in the next 24-48. As for track speed, I guess we’re watching recon as this turns. Any slower or faster would have ramifications. This is going to keep shifting the next few days.

It’s still west and slightly stronger than 18z. Center well offshore though. Bad track for coastal NS.

Not sure. Been a long time though.

Still finishing ERC per NHC @STILL N OF PIKE

The ERC looks done, and while it’s likely capping intensity, as expected we’re seeing a significant expansion of the wind field. This is before the turn north, and before ET transition.

It’s been a low key super wet few days. I’m just under 4.4” of rain in four days. Glad he’s ok

I don’t see 00z yet on TT?

Yeah. Though I melt and come back an hour later and it's the same conversation lol. I'll take this over being a Giants...and Jets fan.

I honest to God do not understand how people that have been posting around one another for years—in some cases literally coming of age on wx boards decades ago—feel the need to defend their dark desire or profess their most profound aversion to potentially destructive wx as if they’re posting the first time. Every. Single. Time. Anyone who spends time in this insane asylum knows where you stand, and your opinion does not sway anyone else one iota. If you’re scared of a tree falling on your house because some weenie in Moose Teet, New Hampshire is hoping for 1938, or scared that you’ll get struck down because you felt a tingle when a op run at 316 put a cane over your backyard, leave that s*** with God, not this or any other thread.

Lee had excellent starting latitude too relative to climo. Too much troughing prevented it from getting further west. I’m more skeptical of 97L but unlike Lee and Margot following Franklin and Idalia it *should* be the only game in town in the Atlantic.

More inches of rain since July than inches of snow here last “winter”. About 33% more

Funny thing is even with the rain I feel skunked. I’ve become a poor man’s TBlizz

Gets pushed NNE for a while. Berg saves the trees on his property that were never in danger while Halifax get inundated.

What an eye developing on Lee.

Because you get a better forecast utilizing all of the guidance. Hurricane models can be great at intensity and structural changes, but more prone to swings on track. Globals are often off on intensity but can be great with track. Spaghetti models can be solid, but I wouldn’t rely on them solely. When you read the NHC discussions, they’re looking at everything and accounting for the various model biases/outliers.