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WxWatcher007

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Everything posted by WxWatcher007

  1. WxWatcher007
    They may have to wait for recon. There’s no convection at the center and there’s still more baroclinic influence IMO than tropical influence. Still intensifying though.
  2. WxWatcher007
    If it does go tropical, it’ll be right before landfall when the center can tighten and pressure is lowest. This is a more subtropical look currently, as expected.
  3. WxWatcher007
    It’s going to be sheared all the way to the end, but what you’re looking for as this approaches landfall about 24 hours from now is whether it can establish an inner core to take it close to C1. For that to happen, you need convection over the center, not adjacent to it. We don’t have that right now despite the intensification trend. Impacts remain the same generally though.
  4. WxWatcher007
    I went back and looked and it seems pretty similar to the euro/gfs?
  5. WxWatcher007
  6. WxWatcher007
    Hurricane models for whatever they’re worth with a broad low, have future Ophelia get sub 990mb before a NC landfall. All in agreement in a heavy rain event in SNE.
  7. WxWatcher007
    Problem is it’s September not January
  8. WxWatcher007
    We hope, though my concern is that we flip this in November.
  9. WxWatcher007
    I was hopeful too, but deep down I knew hydro was coming back. This is made all the more impressive by the fact that this is the first heavy rain event here that’s directly influenced by tropical. In 2021 and a lot of the other big rainfall years tropical had a heavy influence.
  10. WxWatcher007
    18z
  11. WxWatcher007
    I could hear a "PLEASE GOD" coming from the west after you posted that. Stay safe.
  12. WxWatcher007
    Yup, rain's the story here. If we can get that axis of heavy rain over us Saturday or Sunday watch out. I'm at 7.55" since September 8. Unreal how wet it has been...my lawn is having trouble draining lol.
  13. WxWatcher007
    Probably would remain unless it became clear in time that development wasn’t happening.
  14. WxWatcher007
    The first SHIPS forecast was eye opening and I think there’s a good chance of the dynamics I posted about earlier leading to development of an inner core. Time is the limitation here, I think.
  15. WxWatcher007
    30% IMO 100%
  16. WxWatcher007
  17. WxWatcher007
    Keep the rain/snow line over Manhattan please
  18. WxWatcher007
    Here are the anomalies And actual temps
  19. WxWatcher007
    Seeing that LLC become better defined, but like the NHC stated, center reformations will be possible. We'll see how the next few hours go, but it's coming together. Likely won't become tropical until it's closing in on NC.
  20. WxWatcher007
    With more light, you can see a well defined LLC, but note that as the NHC said, center reformations will be possible, especially with convection to the east and high shear present off the SE coast.
  21. WxWatcher007
    Nah, this should go over NC and into the Mid-Atlantic. Makes it post tropical up our way unless it trends east and stays off the coast—even then the waters north of the GS are cold. Shear is high off the SE coast too so while I think it can trend a little stronger there is a ceiling.
  22. WxWatcher007
    I think there’s a good chance this keeps trending a little stronger. The 50kt opening bid by the NHC is a nod to those stronger global runs. Looks pretty wet here. Not sure how that’ll trend.
  23. WxWatcher007
    Homebrew delivers.
  24. WxWatcher007
    Going tropical as of that advisory.
  25. WxWatcher007
    I’ve seen this happen a few times recently with homebrew systems. Kind of surprised the NHC wasn’t higher given the cross guidance signal on the models, particularly in the last 24 hours.
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