WxWatcher007

You have got to be fukkin kidding me. I leave Albany and 20 minutes later a storm pops up.

Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion of the low pressure system northeast of the Bahamas. Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Alberto, located inland over northeastern Mexico. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92) Updated: Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicates that the small area of low pressure located about 150 miles northeast of the northernmost Bahamas does not have a well-defined surface circulation. Environmental conditions remain marginally conducive for further development and this system could become a tropical depression while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The system is expected to approach the northeastern coast of Florida or the Georgia coast early on Friday. Another Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission is planned for Thursday morning, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

It’s definitely trying. A bit messy with the circulation but consistent convection in what’s now a less sheared environment can definitely give it decent odds to develop before moving onshore tomorrow.

They’re weak but there are some westerly winds showing up now per recon.

Roasting at HFD. 94/73

Recon on descent into the invest now. First thing to see is if we actually have a closed circulation.

If the techs are out there today I wonder if they’ll just take it down for public intoxication.

Too far north for me today. Too far south for me tomorrow.

Recon closing in on the invest at a good time as there’s been persistent and deep convection near the center.

Glue factory model

It’ll be good to see what recon finds. I’m not entirely sure it’s fully closed off, but shear has dropped significantly and there’s a little bit of time. Dry air is an issue, especially on the southern side, but convection so far has held on.

I don’t mean this as a negative statement, but it’s mostly monotony year round. Not surprising on a random June morning the conversation isn’t about the intricacies of 850mb temperature advection. Riveting conversation there too.

If we can talk about those three without complaining then I won’t have to complain about the complaining. Banter but honestly, I’m still sad about Willie Mays’ passing. What a life well lived. I’m looking forward to the game tonight at Rickwood Field.

This conversation makes me want to throw my head through this computer screen.

May try to catch the storms up here in the Albany area today. It’s been a while since I’ve been in chase mode. @weatherwiz I hear Troy tends to be a good viewing spot?

It’s a lot of rain for Mexico. Feast it famine like @wxmx said.

Thanks. As I see it, the well defined center has an uphill fight against shear and then dry air as it approaches the coast. Small systems can trend stronger or weaker very quickly however, so this is definitely an interesting one to track.

Hot towers going up around the center now.

There are some pretty strong FL winds found in the flight so far. 55kt FL peak and 41kt SFMR.

As expected, we now have lower level recon rather than a survey, and Alberto is substantially more organized than it was just a few hours ago. Earlier survey Now

Over the top

The SW Atlantic area identified about ten days ago is now invest 92L. Has some work to do to get classified as a TC.

If it’s an invest or has legit development odds it should get a thread imo. I don’t have a monopoly over tread starting so other folks feel free to start! @GaWx It’s not terribly surprising to me that the SW disturbance I discussed a while back is an invest now. I am a little surprised to see such a well defined low, but it needs convection, and that may be tough with time running out and dry air/shear lurking. Perhaps it’ll take advantage of the diurnal cycle to spur TC genesis.