bristolri_wx

Snowfall output still isn’t great - especially compared to the other models...

Wow, my NWS forecast is now 0... I'm thinking 3-6"/4-8" for my area in RI... thoughts?

BOX 3AM AFD: “SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Fast-moving, open-wave preference with low-mid level focus primarily within an anti-cyclonic branch of a warm-moist conveyor belt beneath support aloft brought via H3 right-rear-quadrant jet streak. Thus, greater weighting towards NAM / WRF solutions, some blending with EC. Why? Feel both the present upper OH River Valley and N Gulf impulse energy are slightly faster than global guidance has initialized. Also, the NW Atlantic remains wide open. While trends have a slower N Gulf impulse intercepted by E-Rockies lee cyclogenesis in vicinity of S New England, have lower confidence of slower, storm maturation given the synoptic pattern as of late. Again, preference to faster solutions, focus within the front-end thump however some back-peeling N/W of the precip-shield brought about via the neighboring H3 RRQ jet streak and lowering H5 heights / troughing parent with additional up- stream Pacific energy out of the Great Lakes. Non-GFS, keep the storm at or outside of the 40N / 70W benchmark on Saturday. NAM / WRF / EC solution preference. A slower, inside the benchmark solution just doesn`t feel right given recent synoptics. Not favoring a deeper grasp on the N Gulf impulse, trowaling moisture back and further N that would net higher snowfall amounts as the GFS suggests. Not like the GFS solution is being ignored, just not being weighted with this forecast. It`s certainly not out of the realm of possibility. So, altogether, when taking marginal thermal fields as is exhibited by forecast model thicknesses yielding a wintry mix and/or heavier, wet snow closer to the coast, out across the Cape and Islands, with lower snow to liquid ratios as a result, have generally a 3 to 6" event over RI and Southeast MA, up into the Boston-metro, while 1 to 3" over the Cape and Islands, as well as N/W of the 3 to 6" swath, while northwest MA sees a coating up to 1". WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY posted over portions of E/SE MA where confidence is highest of 3 to 6" amounts. This region coinciding with colder air and H9-7 frontogenesis / deformation N/E of the coastal low. Other things that come to mind: Will there be accumulation issues with a heavier, wet snow? Perhaps with marginal lapse rates and 2m temperatures around freezing during the daytime? Any issues with heavy, wet snow on tree limbs especially as we approach 6-inches? Think once we gain more confidence on snowfall amounts that we can answer these questions.”

BOX map doesn’t look quite right based on guidance...?

11” total in Bristol. If the first 6” was a higher ratio rather than cement we would have been over a foot.

Because they have 5-6”, and I have 9”. Probably wasn’t in the good band this morning as long. I was already at 5-6” by 10 AM.

I’m at 9” in Bristol. Unusually, we were in a good band for a while. Picking up again too. Confident we can get close to a foot here.

Yes the heavy band have been over us most of the morning. May have lost an inch to melting bottom layer is very slushy.

5” snow in Bristol. Heavy snow right now...

It has occasional hiccup runs as well let’s see if it’s a trend.

Not used to hearing "heaviest snow amounts continue towards eastern RI and Narragansett Bay." Holy cow game on.