bristolri_wx

After a little break, heavy rain 36/35. Was surprised I even had sush to push around in the driveway this morning. Don’t think those forecasts for highs in the mid 50’s in the coastal plains are going to verify.

Sleet and rain now in Bristol. 33/32. Looks like I have about 2.5" that will be washed away by morning...

Snow mixing with sleet here in Bristol.

It looks worse on Taunton radar. If you switch over to Upton it's filling in as it gets closer....

TJ is going to be embarrassed he put up that map. I'll take the under on that all the way to Newport. Probably ends up something like 38 in Smithfield and 45 in Newport. Definitely above freezing but not that high... "certified most accurate"

HRRR a tick colder again at the surface. Seems like every hour the 32 degree line sinks a little farther south for maximum extent inland...

Those extended HRRR runs aren’t the greatest outside the normal 18 HR range. Just an observation...

Graupel falling now In Providence...

I'm surprised I'm still getting 3" Also a cool new product I haven't seen before: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/wssi/wssi.php?id=BOX

32/23 very light snow/flurries falling in Providence.

I posted this Thursday morning on Memebook. Looks like a bust out on the Cape. Ranges are probably 1" too high everywhere else. Not a fan of these slop storms...

Ahh, that makes sense. Thanks for that explanation. Doesn't look like we're getting that easterly component needed either, at least on the GFS as modeled...

Is this the problem? Using GFS here, but at 850 winds are already either west or south west, and this is at 18Z Sat. Wouldn't we need a little more of a more northerly component, at least up in northern New England, to prevent the warmup? I honestly don't have the skill set to understand if what is depicted (it might not even be the right map to illustrate this) is either a cause or an effect as to why the models keep churning out more warmth than expected. But it seems that arctic high is more strung out west to east in terms of influence on the models, and that's why that low is allowed to barrel farther north than what we would normally expect. I'll be honest I agree that things "just don't look right" compared to what we would normally see but I couldn't tell you why, lol.

Judging by the looks of the arrows, they represent Ray's limited skill in the Apple Preview app he uses to make the maps.

All joking aside, I'm 40 and I feel that my adult life has been much snowier than my childhood ever was. And I've been interested in weather since a very young age. If the cause is cyclical, or GW, there's definitely been a difference in the last 20 years, especially with the number bigger storms of 12+... Of course this observation is anecdotal and judged by my location in RI...

Are we really having a warmer than normal winter? We definitely have less snow, but I attribute that to $hit pattern/bad luck than above normal temps... I remember warmer winters where we have had more snow by this point.

GFS definitely starting to catch on that it can't ram that surface low up into that cold press as others have been alluding too. It's still not sure what to do earlier in the run...

Now I know where my NWS forecast is coming from... can't trust the Government F!@#$% Shutdown model at the moment...

I know I'm not getting 2' of snow, but I have a hard time believing the NWS forecast for Bristol, RI at the moment... are they just using the GFS? 46 and heavy rain...

Agreed, this is the way many of these storms go. We're smack dab in the legendary snow hole that always shows up, for whatever reason. It's going to be a lot of slop for sure, but thankfully it's just not just rain like previous have been.

I think we'll do better than that in East Bay, RI. 6-12" with sleet mixing would be a safe call. Maybe closer to 6" due to more sleet would be safer for Newport. I don't think this storm has a lot of rain in it for us.

11” total in Bristol. If the first 6” was a higher ratio rather than cement we would have been over a foot.

Because they have 5-6”, and I have 9”. Probably wasn’t in the good band this morning as long. I was already at 5-6” by 10 AM.

I’m at 9” in Bristol. Unusually, we were in a good band for a while. Picking up again too. Confident we can get close to a foot here.