bristolri_wx

This has been the year of sleet. Can hear the occasional mix of pingers again. About 3” outside.

Updated BOX map...

We’ll see. I don’t have elevation here so if I end up 2-4” I’ll consider myself lucky. Was thinking 3-6”/4-8” earlier but the trends have not been our friends. NAM 3k seems to have me switching over to snow in the next hour or so, let’s see how accurate it is as the HRRR doesn’t have any sleet on the map near me at all...

Sorry - not necessarily calling you out. Just going back 24 hours on why they were worried totals were going to be low like they are trending now, and we were giving him h-e double hockey sticks for going against the modeling at the time. It’s also not snowing where I am...

Sleet, 33. Aka “The bird”.

I guess Sipprell does know something about this storm...

Overall in the grand scheme of things we always complain about modeling being off. But many times the parameters used for model verification are not necessarily QPF or snowfall predictions, so a lot of these “busts” are thrown under the rug. The models are tools to be used by meteorologists to use with their own knowledge, experience, and common sense to make a forecast. It’s been essentially meso vs global for the last 48 hours and the trends have not been good at all. BOX NWS might bust a little high but if you read their AFDs for the last 36 hours they haven’t liked this storm one bit. I’m sure at the end of the day someone will look at these types of model shifts in a forecast for such a large populated area as ours within the 12-24 hr timeframe on the global models but overall the higher res guidance has been sniffing out this outcome for at least 24 hours. That being said what a long strange winter it’s been...

Very true - and you would think a hi-res model would be all over that banding...

Snowfall output still isn’t great - especially compared to the other models...

Wow, my NWS forecast is now 0... I'm thinking 3-6"/4-8" for my area in RI... thoughts?

BOX 3AM AFD: “SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Fast-moving, open-wave preference with low-mid level focus primarily within an anti-cyclonic branch of a warm-moist conveyor belt beneath support aloft brought via H3 right-rear-quadrant jet streak. Thus, greater weighting towards NAM / WRF solutions, some blending with EC. Why? Feel both the present upper OH River Valley and N Gulf impulse energy are slightly faster than global guidance has initialized. Also, the NW Atlantic remains wide open. While trends have a slower N Gulf impulse intercepted by E-Rockies lee cyclogenesis in vicinity of S New England, have lower confidence of slower, storm maturation given the synoptic pattern as of late. Again, preference to faster solutions, focus within the front-end thump however some back-peeling N/W of the precip-shield brought about via the neighboring H3 RRQ jet streak and lowering H5 heights / troughing parent with additional up- stream Pacific energy out of the Great Lakes. Non-GFS, keep the storm at or outside of the 40N / 70W benchmark on Saturday. NAM / WRF / EC solution preference. A slower, inside the benchmark solution just doesn`t feel right given recent synoptics. Not favoring a deeper grasp on the N Gulf impulse, trowaling moisture back and further N that would net higher snowfall amounts as the GFS suggests. Not like the GFS solution is being ignored, just not being weighted with this forecast. It`s certainly not out of the realm of possibility. So, altogether, when taking marginal thermal fields as is exhibited by forecast model thicknesses yielding a wintry mix and/or heavier, wet snow closer to the coast, out across the Cape and Islands, with lower snow to liquid ratios as a result, have generally a 3 to 6" event over RI and Southeast MA, up into the Boston-metro, while 1 to 3" over the Cape and Islands, as well as N/W of the 3 to 6" swath, while northwest MA sees a coating up to 1". WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY posted over portions of E/SE MA where confidence is highest of 3 to 6" amounts. This region coinciding with colder air and H9-7 frontogenesis / deformation N/E of the coastal low. Other things that come to mind: Will there be accumulation issues with a heavier, wet snow? Perhaps with marginal lapse rates and 2m temperatures around freezing during the daytime? Any issues with heavy, wet snow on tree limbs especially as we approach 6-inches? Think once we gain more confidence on snowfall amounts that we can answer these questions.”

BOX map doesn’t look quite right based on guidance...?

Moderate snow, 1.5” on the ground, 21 degrees. This will end up being best overall event of the season so far since there will be no mixing in this one.

Sleet, 1” snow, 30/26

About 3.5”

Not sure when it’s going to snow an inch down my way again....

Yeah, can't often remember seeing a forecasted 981 MB low over the western Great Lakes in early February in recent memory. Such an odd pattern this winter.

NOAA's seasonal forecasts in October and November predicted above normal temperatures for this Winter. People hear what they want to hear. I still think Ray's forecast was great despite not getting snow. Most of what he's mentioned actually has occurred, and it was very educational regardless of the outcome. Sometimes $h!t happens (or doesn't).

Yes I work at Salve in Newport and they cancelled classes tomorrow because a number of buildings don't have heat due to the gas issue.

Ugh this mid-week storm is going to be a mess. Ground is frozen rock solid, no snow pack to absorb anything, and we're going to get 2-3" of rain. Greeaaaaaat...

Flash freeze is a commin! 39 to 27 in about 90 minutes. Still got some drizzle going on.

Thank you for making me look up what planetary/rossby waves were. What a world we live in where I can instantly learn about the weather while verifying the grocery list with the wife on a small device that lives in your pocket!

Last batch of rain moving through. Winds just went NW and the temp dropped back down 4 degrees to 35.

After a little break, heavy rain 36/35. Was surprised I even had sush to push around in the driveway this morning. Don’t think those forecasts for highs in the mid 50’s in the coastal plains are going to verify.