bristolri_wx

Definitely better than expected here. Plus this is the type of rainstorm that really helps - light to moderate over a couple of days, not too much run off or flooding, drizzle in between showers. Maximum drought busting efficiency!

Yeah geez what a poor showing for modeling if this is the outcome. This type of waffling for precipitation outcomes shouldn’t be happening in the 72 hour window...

Never believed that output in the first place. Through Tuesday evening old GFS, new GFS, Euro, ICON, NAM are all in the .50 to 1.00" range for SNE still... Unless I'm looking at the wrong maps. Still wiggle room too. Some of the runs last night had less than a quarter inch of rain during yesterdays runs before they went deluge for a few runs...

The Euro shows Delta turning on the faucet for SENE.

https://floridaman.com

NHC:

Wow - the official NHC forecast track hasn't shifted for us in 24 hours. Go look at forecast 14A (2PM Fri), and that path is almost the exactly the same as the path at 18A (2PM today). Sure the models are going to keep moving the jackpot of precip at every model run, but we're talking about swings of a couple of hundred miles based in minor variations each run. You blend them together and right now most of us are getting at least 2" of rain, with pockets of 4", and that's been pretty steady over the last 24 hours as well - and much of that is coming well ahead of the "eye" of the storm. Looks like we'll be getting a pretty good rainstorm, with the intensity of a moderate nor'easter for those that end up on the eastern side of the eye, if anyone ends up there. I'm sticking to that until something shows me otherwise. Obviously LF in Florida changes things, but that hasn't happened yet, and if it does, it's going to give us plenty of time to adjust the forecast. There was never a consistent signal that this was going to be a strong storm/hurricane up in SNE once we got into the timeframe where the tropical models could provide forecasts for our area...

6z HWRF(s) and HMON both have this making landfall on the SC/NC border, staying inland for a bit then re-emerging and heading NE into New England. Not disliking that track, gets us the rain we need without a ton of damaging wind... seems like Euro op is on its own at the moment.

I live in coastal RI. Any trickery for us would be appreciated.

Yup missed out on everything here. Looking at the radar loop almost everywhere in RI got at least a fast moving shower out of it except my area - barely a trace. Glad I watered the garden earlier! Now in the dry slot...

Why? Do you enjoy ball sweat that much???

I looked at the radar, the NAM, and HRRR, and proceeded to go outside and water the garden. Not expecting much rain here at this point. Could have used it!

I think the question becomes, do you want a weather forum to become social media, with all the vitriol that goes along with it? It looked like things were getting personal at the end. Sometimes you're better off not knowing the political leanings of your online "friends", so you can just banter about the weather and enjoy it. To keep my post on topic - seems like QPF is down across the board for most of eastern New England on all the 00z models. Only the 12K nam gives any areas more than an inch east of the CT river... was hoping this could be a nice soaker for the garden...

I was wondering the same thing. Anti-virus?

Did the 18z initialize with all the recon info? I have the feeling 00z might be a better indicator as all that information recorded will be fully ingested along with proper center coordinates.

Strongest gusts of the day happening right now here in Bristol.

Moderate snow now. 34. About a 1/2" on the grassy areas. Not much on pavement.

Light snow mixed with sleet and rain, 36.

The second coming of Christ is more likely.

It's just been a constant "roar" of wind here for the last 4 hours or so. Worse down at the immediate coast. It was fun traveling over the Mt. Hope Bridge with the crosswinds blowing across the deck.

36,000 in RI with no power. 40,000 in SE MA between National Grid and Eversource.

Did the wind thread just get deleted?

This place has gone insane in the membrane... No it doesn't look good here on out, but again, there will be *chances* for some wintry weather, even in SNE, last two weeks of Feb into early March. I've been looking at the CFS long range on Pivotal for most of the winter, and while it's obviously not perfect, it has actually been rather consistent in the long range with what we have been seeing in terms of pattern and the resulting lack of snow this winter. I've always thought the CFS was garbage but for whatever reason this winter its been pretty decent, and it's showing some colder conditions in a week or two, with maybe some storm chances that coincide with it. So I'm willing to give it the benefit of the doubt - some of the other guidance suggests that as well. I guess if we don't have any snow outside that we can watch melt, might as well be the posters in this forum...

I wouldn't give up hope just yet. Last two weeks of Feb and first week of March look better for colder temps and chances at snow. Best its looked in a few weeks...