bristolri_wx

We would take flurries down here. It’s been ****ing miserable here since Christmas. The doldrums… anecdotal but can’t remember such a stretch at the beginning of winter.

GFS is kind of on its own on this one. NAM wants none of this and it’s within range of it being relatively accurate. Will be surprised if GFS is right on this one. The positive on this is that even though the storm is a miss, at it at least has a semblance of change in the pattern indicated with a storm actually strengthening into some sort of cyclone to the south of us, rather than shredded mozzarella we’ve been getting last two weeks. Slow progress…

Yup every run that low moves another 50 miles NW on the GFS op… still won’t amount to much but it’s a consistent trend…

True, total miss on the NAM at the moment... but it's at the edge of the 12K range and not in the range of the 3k yet... probably not worth factoring it in for now considering it's not even in agreement with any of the globals on the strength of that low anywhere on the east coast.

That 1/3 storm has been steadily backing north and west towards New England on all the global models. Something to watch, maybe a chance of a scrape?

@Typhoon Tip great write up, even if it doesn’t happen. Also great that there’s no material in here to get cross posted back to off-topic threads

Noted…

Ha sorry missed that. The worst part of this is looking at the CFS for a hopeful outcome lol. Not much of a confidence booster but you take what you get.

FWIW… I know this is going to be weenied into oblivion but the CFS that’s available on Pivotal has been looking better for January… a couple of warm ups on there in the long range but also plenty of cold and at least some potential for not everything to be shredded. Just basing this on the 500mb anomaly maps…

The weather in RI has sucked that last few days. 40’s, cloudy, foggy, drizzly, occasionally rainy… as many others have said not how you want to “torch” in December. I would take cold and dry over this shit weather… can’t wait for this pattern to transition to something else…

It’s hard to get good answers to that question, but my best but very uneducated guess from reading is that more people have been retiring than entering the workforce for several years now. That accelerated during the pandemic. Add in the increase in the death rates the last couple of years for however you wish to attribute it, and the reductions in *legal* immigration, and you have yourself a labor shortage. Most people who worked in service industries have moved on to other jobs. Some people have left the workforce entirely, but I think that’s only a small part of the story, and the extended unemployment benefits have long since ended, so clearly that’s not the cause of the problem either, even though that was the narrative according to many last year. TLDR: a labor shortage has been slowly occurring last few years, pandemic accelerated it and made it worse.

Ate there in mid-November when we did a quick visit to Santa’s Village. I had steak tips and my wife had the prime rib. We thought everythIng was great. Still have good French onion soup as well. It wouldn’t surprise me that there’s more inconsistency at these types of small eateries due to staffing issues and supply chain problems. Unemployment is low so it’s going to be a while before things stabilize…

Wouldn’t surprise me if icing is a little worse than forecasted tomorrow with temps running lower than predicted today. Seems that the atmosphere is a bit colder than was modeled…

If you play the percentages that pattern out west is going to break down eventually… question does it happen in time to make things more favorable here. It’s hard to go with your gut when there are record anomalies…

I think I have had to use a snow blower twice down here in the last 3 years. Either not enough to get it setup (I have an electric corded one) or way to slushy due to p-type issues. Even todays 2” wasn’t enough to get it out…

Grabbed these before running some errands. Couple of inches here in Bristol. Enjoy some photos from Colt State Park - got to test the new tires on some unplowed roads as well. Happy Holidays!

“God bless us every one”

It’s a Christmas (Eve) miracle!

I get the feeling this is how the board would have been if it existed in the 80’s and early 90’s when there were a lot of terrible winters for snow…

I swear I read an article a few months back, that I had to Google translate from French to English, that Euro upgrades always focus on verifying forecast improvements in the European domain first, even though it’s a global model. I couldn’t find it in my history to repost, so don’t hold me to it - someone with more understanding of modeling software development can feel free to correct that statement.

Every event is nuanced here due to the effects of being right next to the Atlantic and a stones throw away from the Gulf Stream. There are several demarcation lines for events depending on how cold the air mass is and the track of the storm. We probably only have a couple events a year, if we’re lucky, that mixed precipitation isn’t an issue somewhere in SNE. Sometimes it’s I-95, sometimes it’s the Mass Pike, sometimes it’s I-495. The south coast definitely has more issues with P-type than the east coast. In fact the east coast (or north shore and south shore) often picks up extra snow in Nor’Easters where ocean enhancement kicks in as the storms pull east. That never really happens at the south coast.

I would counter that while mild weather is nice, and definitely can be enjoyable, it’s not as interesting, especially in the winter. The places on earth that are both inhabitable and can experience snow is exceedingly small compared to places where weather can be mild and/or warm. Plus the current climate trends are pushing towards less cold and snowy weather. The conditions required for snow to fall are much more complex to forecast, especially for the areas on the fringes like ourselves. No one wants anyone silenced, it’s just the difference of walking by someone on the street and preferring they say “good day” rather than “**** you”.

Factually you’re not wrong. However, it’s quite clear that the context of your posts is to ruffle some feathers of the winter weather lovers. Sure, none of us can wish the weather we want into existence but thanks to Bing Crosby, Norman Rockwell, and the Little Ice Age some people feel comfort and nostalgic about a “White Christmas”, especially considering how shitty life has been for some the last couple of years. I live near Narragansett Bay so my chances of snow on the ground or it snowing on Christmas are less likely than @Typhoon Tipgeting his point across in three sentences or less, so it’s really no sweat off my back to see it being a low probability of it being snowy around the holidays. Your 850mb anomaly map wrapped with a heart instead of a bow was more meant to antagonize the board than factualize the forecast. Feel free to point out I’m wrong <3

@forkyfork’s mentor