bristolri_wx

He has really gone to crap since his accuweather days… sad…

I would only trust the NAM for a TC in the scenario of “models trending west can models trending east” count. Other than that not very useful and too erratic.

Definitely a storm surge up the bay alignment... thankfully the hurricane barrier is still functional for Providence... other areas without a barrier not as lucky...

HWRF is east... landfall is at Watch Hill, RI... continues NW trajectory into CT... huge difference from HMON lol...

Could be... it's way west at 48 compared to last run...

HMON is slowly rolling in. So far slightly west and slightly weaker but not near land yet... just of interest as it's been consistently one of the western tracked models of this storm...

Ugh that's still a lot of spread 36-48 out from the storms effects...

Those dorms at RWU are pretty sturdy. There's a bunch of them that have weathered Gloria and Bob without any issues. There's also a decent amount of elevation going up from the coast to the campus so storm surge shouldn't be too much of an issue where those buildings are located.

The only question at this point is when does the westward trend stop... the trend continues to be westward...

Yup, this is the west scenario that I didn't want... lol...

I'm not quite convinced yet that this storm goes as far west as some of these models are indicating. This isn't because I want a hurricane to pass right overhead like Bob did. That was a mess in Bristol as the eye went right over us, though as many have mentioned it was entirely different setup. However this westward track is all based on the ULL capturing the storm and forcing it westward at the end before EC transition. While this is a tropical system, we've seen this scenario before with other low pressure systems where models like to capture a storm and keep it west, only for this not to occur exactly as modeled, or it happens later farther east. I think the NHC with it's conservative guidance on this track is probably considering this as well. It's an unusual track of approach for this type of storm and then the interaction is also unusual so I'm betting more common sense human forecasting is going to prevail in this one.

Looks like NHC 11 PM stuff is finally getting posted. Public advisory is up...

Hmmm, still no 11PM advisory from the NHC... usually they are up 15 minutes before hand...

I think most of us are just joking around. I don't think it's a conicidence they run the NAM before everyone goes to bed lol...

The NAM doesn't reflect that (only shows 2-5" QPF), but again, it's the NAM. Just interesting to discuss lol...

Jeez the thing just stalls out over NW CT on the NAM... if that plays out this is once-in-a-lifetime material...

NAM scrapes Long Island on it's way to New Haven... it's the NAM though...

I don't believe the GEFS shown on Tropical Tidbits has the latest data ingestion from the recon flight. I'm interested to see the 0z model suite with all that data ingested... It's definitely odd that EPS is going in one direction and GEFS is going in the other...

I could be misreading the 12z GFS ensembles, but Henri doesn't look very strong, and looks to be not making a landfall... going by 850mb height/wind chart on Pivotal...

Yeah Euro HR 78 still hooks it west towards the cape. Much weaker though, we've had stronger nor'easters than that...

HWRF drives it Northwest into Narragansett Bay... never seen that before lol... seems like all options are still on the table. Has it at 965mb around the 40/70 point...

Your beer fridge is powered by genny?

If you look at the GFS ensembles, if this thing gets west of 73 degrees longitude, that dramatically increases the chances of it running right up the coast into our area. How far west it gets before it starts to move north seems to be the key with this one...