Winter Wizard

Haven't looked at the surface yet, but the ridging at 120 over New England is a bit concerning; would allow for warm air to flood the surface and mid-levels. Was shown in the 0z run too.

Hour 96, much stronger confluence over NE. Ridge out west is also stronger and the SW is a bit more amplified.

Agreed, key difference I see is Euro is much weaker with the PNA ridge, which hinders the SW from amplifying as much, causing it to cut west. Hopefully that feature trends toward the GFS. FWIW, 0z EPS looked a bit better than the operational.

12z GFS is a pretty solid improvement. Stronger PNA ridge allows the SW to become more amplified while the confluence in the east allows for a stronger push of cold air. End result at the surface: a solid hit for most N and W of I-95 verbatim. Hopefully the Euro can come on board at 12z.

At hour 90, looks like the ridge out west is stronger.

Yup, wouldn't focus on specifics at the surface but it's definitely an interesting pattern. You can clearly see cold air protruding from Canada and an active southern stream jet. I suspect there will be multiple waves over the coming weeks and NWP models will probably struggle.

I'm not sure I'd put it as far south as you, aka I-70, but verbatim the NAM soundings are saturated in the low-to-mid levels and have decent vertical velocities. Best chances of seeing a snow shower is north of the Mason-Dixon line, but I could see there being enough uncertainty to drop it south a little.

Didn’t see it mentioned but at 0z the NAM went back north and is in line with other guidance. No flakes until you get to I-80.

Worst 11-0 team ever

Well this is a somewhat interesting trend from the 3km NAM for Wednesday morning snow showers in the northern half of the subforum. Forecast soundings appear to be fairly moist from the surface to the mid-levels with temperatures close to freezing.

At first glance, it seems the new GFS is a step in the right direction. The vorts in New England seem to eject quicker, which doesn't suppress heights behind it as much as in the 12z run. Doesn't quite get it done yet, but a clear northwest shift in the precipitation field. Baby steps. New: Old:

Euro continues to show a stronger northern piece of energy compared to the GFS, allowing for some flakes on the front-end.

Interesting read. I can't find it at the moment, but I believe HM tweeted earlier in the Fall about how smoke plumes tend to increase the stratospheric temperature gradient, and that, in turn, would lead to a stronger PV and +NAM state. The lack of heat flux in the polar stratosphere that has been observed this season would also likely contribute to that, although not sure of/if there's a relation between that and aerosols from the western US fires.

It's definitely important to consider, I'd argue all applicants should ask companies what they did to accommodate employees during COVID. Those that haven't done much to keep employees safe probably aren't enjoyable to work for.

I know this is an old thread (and unfortunately not a ton has changed over the past decade), but my two cents is if you're going to get a degree in Meteorology, it is important to supplement it with another marketable skill. Those include programming, GIS, business/finance, etc. depending on the path you choose. There is a lot of talk about how bad starting salaries are in this field and yes, there is a lot of truth to that, but you can do well if you look into the right places and are willing to expand your horizons. If you want to go on TV, you are looking at salaries in the 20s or low 30s to start and will likely have to move to a small town in a different part of the country. There are opportunities to move up, but those jobs are highly competitive, so you will really have to hustle. Ultimately, due to low wages and station politics, many end up leaving this sector after a few years. If you end up in broadcast, I would recommend not getting fixated on market size; rather, focus on where you can get the most on-air experience. That will help you eventually move up. The next main sector is operational forecasting and I'm bearish about long-term prospects here. Salaries are about the same or slightly higher than broadcast, but in many cases barely a livable wage and laughable for the work put in for the degree. You will be required to work overnights and weekends at most companies and this can take a major physical and mental toll. Not much upward mobility. NWS is a similar deal, however, the pay and benefits are much better and increase over time. To get in, you will likely need a couple years of experience in a private sector job or a Master's. Additionally, with automation becoming more and more prevalent, the demand for a large team of human forecasters is likely to decline, although there will still be a need. Overall, operational forecasting is a good way to get into the industry, but probably best to leave after a couple years. What has changed in the past 10 years is the emergence of the Weather Risk sector. This is a program only offered at a few schools; Penn State pioneered the program and others have recently added it. Weather risk involves sectors including catastrophe modeling, travel risk management, energy and commodities, insurance, reinsurance, etc. In these sectors, the salaries are much higher (can easily pull six figures) and demand will continue to increase as businesses are forced to adapt to climate change. Overall, if you are planning on getting a degree in Meteorology, this is definitely the most fruitful path, BUT it is highly competitive. Long story short, I would say reconsider majoring in Meteorology if it forces you into tens of thousands of dollars into student debt and you end up in a sector with little-to-no upward mobility. The Math, Physics, Chem, Programming, Stats, and Business (in weather risk) classes you are required to take gives you a variety of skills that can easily be applied to other fields outside of Meteorology. If you do go through with the major, please consider the various sectors above and do what you can to network, get internships, and become involved in extracurricular activities in college so you can be a strong candidate once you graduate.

With regard to the AO and Nina winters, there have been 41 -AO winters since 1950-51. Among those 41, 11 occurred during La Nina years, 14 occurred during El Nino, and 16 in ENSO-neutral. By percentage, this comes out to, 52.3% of La Nina years (11/21), 53.8% of El Nino years (14/26), and 69.5% (16/23) ENSO-neutral winters. Among those 21 La Nina years at DCA, the average snowfall is 12.0", below the 1981-2010 average of 15.4". In +AO years, the average is just 8.8" with only one season (1971-1972) finishing above average (1999-2000 was exactly average). In -AO Nina years, the average is 14.4", however only 3 out of 11 featured above average snowfall. If you remove the massive outlier of 1995-96, the average falls to just 11.2". For BWI, those numbers don't get much better. In fact, they arguably paint a bleaker picture. Among those 21 La Nina years at BWI, the average snowfall is 16.0", below the 1981-2010 average of 20.1". In +AO years, the average is just 12.1" with only one season (1999-2000) finishing above average. In -AO Nina years, the average is 18.9", however only 1 out of 11 featured above average snowfall and it's, you guessed it, 1995-96. If you remove the massive outlier of 1995-96, the average falls to just 14.5". If you break it down by month, in Nina winters at DCA, 4/21 Decembers have seen above average snowfall (3/4 in -AO years), 7/21 Januarys (4/7 in -AO years), and 4/21 Februarys (2/4 in -AO years). At BWI, it's 7/21 Decembers (5/7 in -AO years), 8/21 Januarys (5/8 in -AO years), and 5/21 Februarys (4/5 in -AO years). Long story short, historically speaking, La Ninas are no bueno for the Mid-Atlantic, which should not come as a surprise. Clearly Atlantic blocking helps, as PSU outlined, but still an uphill battle from there. I'd be interested to see how the Pacific numbers shake up too - I imagine the +AO years had at least a semblance of +PNA/-EPO/-WPO.

Well this was a storm for the books here in Annapolis. I could clearly see the edge of the shelf cloud and rotation right in front of me. Some pretty extensive damage in Edgewater, which is a few minutes south of me. Full videos (2 parts) attached in this tweet

Last night’s flood event in Wilmington was statistically a once-every-1000-year flooding event. Insane. Scroll up in the thread for full video of the flooding. Can anyone recall what the stats were for rainfall intensity during the Elliott City floods?

Last night was officially considered a once-every-1000 year flooding event in Wilmington.

For reference, going back to 1950, average rainfall for the month of August in Wilmington is 3.79”. So if this is accurate, we just saw over a month’s worth of rainfall in 30 minutes. Incredible.

I don’t live in Wilmington anymore, but in 20 years of living in the area, I have never seen flooding this bad in my backyard. The entire backyard is now submerged. It’s a screenshot from a video, which I tweeted out, so sorry for the grainy quality.

I lived in Wilmington for 20 years and this is the worst flooding I’ve ever seen at my old house. Way worse than Irene, Sandy, Isaias, etc. apologies for the grainy pic, it’s a screenshot from a video. Most of the backyard is totally submerged and the basement is flooding. What a week of weather.

That storm near the Bay Bridge is no joke, just had some penny-sized hail here in Annapolis. A nice little surprise.

Sad! Let’s keep these protestors out of my hometown, please.

Ended up getting hit with an initial round of convection here in Annapolis before the main squall line went through. Part one actually had some pea-sized hail along with torrential downpours. Second one also had torrential downpours, but contained stronger winds. No reports of damage here, but friends in Rockville reported several downed trees in their neighborhood.