FallsLake

There's your history....Storms just don't want to make landfall in central Florida to the SC/Ga boarder. Of course it's not them specifically, it's the upper air patterns (at that latitude) recurving the storm from westward to eastward motion. Only problem is the SC/NC coast line juts out too much for the recurve to miss (sometimes).

Man I was hoping this storm would stay away from us in the Carolinas. Florence caused a lot of work for me last year. Our best chance now (as it looks) is it stays off the coast and then goes out to sea. I think that's a possibility we (I) can hope for. Big model runs upcoming.

That's the Crabtree creek that runs through Raleigh and always has flooding issues. Especially around the the Crabtree Mall.

I kind of like the 12z ICON. It still hits south Florida, but it now runs it northward to off the SE coast; which allows it to start becoming extra-tropical and pull cool air down from the north (..nor'easter).

Lol..actually have no idea. Just grabbed the image to show the GFS wants to run Dorian through Orlando.

12z GFS says Dorian will be traveling to (and maybe hanging out) a favorite amusement park:

I'm not sure what to think about the overnight model runs. Late yesterday it was looking like Dorian would maybe hit south Florida and then run right out into the Gulf. That would spare us farther to the north a lot of the affects. But overnight the models have shifted back east some and now show a hit farther up the Florida coast with a curve north and northeast. At this point Florida is still in the cross hairs but again I'm suspect about a direct hit on the central and northern coast (...just doesn't follow history). So honestly I think there needs to be two cones; one running through south Florida and the other curving and heading towards the SC coast. But that's just my non-meteorological thoughts....

It can happen. But it's hard for those areas to get hit. >>really hard for the Ga coast to get hit.

Again history, storms don't tend to directly hit coastal areas from central Florida to SC/Ga boarder. If I was a betting man I would put money on S. Florida or the SC coast.

I was about to respond that if it did shift north and hit your area, it looks like it would keep moving (..less flooding). But take a look at the old GFS; it shows the hurricane running up the coast from Florida to SE NC, then out to sea where it stalls, and then starts to shift back towards NC. Not saying this will happen, but flooding for somebody is not off the table. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-legacy&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019082806&fh=6

If you throw history into the equation, from your location southward would be a favorable path/hit; then the SC & NC coast as the next favored hit. From the central coast of Florida all the way up to the SC/Ga boarder tend to get spared direct hits from hurricanes.

Canadian and euro want to take it straight into the south/central coast of Florida, then recurve it northeast as a big rain maker. Of course still lots of options on the board.

I definitely do not like seeing this:

Yeah RAH states that high to the NE is going to be key to how it eventually affects us. The (potentially) stalled front could act as a focal point for moisture streaming in from the SW. But where, when, and actually how are still up in the air.

We also don't know about any feedbacks that may occur with more open water. Siberia (land mass) is still going to get very cold during the fall/winter months. When this air traverses over open water it will pick up moisture and then dump it as snow somewhere else. Most of the Arctic is considered a desert and increasing the winter snow accumulations will have an impact on the spring melt season; which in turn could slow the following years ice melt. **just agreeing with you that we don't know exactly how things will play out....

One thing that kills us in the SE during summer is the high humidity. Correlating with the high humidity are the high dew points that keep overnight lows warm. But in the next few days we'll (continue to) see an air mass that still has warm daytime temps in the 80s, but will have lows in the 50s to low 60s. That's bearable. From RAH: Shortwave ridging aloft and Canadian surface high pressure will build east across the cntl Appalachians and middle Atlantic states Thu and Thu night, with associated surface dewpoints and low temperatures in the 50s across the Piedmont, ranging to lwr 60s over the Sandhills and srn Coastal Plain. Highs near to slightly below average in the lwr to mid 80s, with very low/comfortable humidity levels.

A few upper 50s occurring across northern NC this morning. I'm enjoying this break in the heat. Looking forward to more and more of these breaks in the next few weeks.

Very nice day >>> Overcast, breezy, 72 degrees, with a dew point of 57.

Yeah! Definitely a Fall feel outside; 65 with NE winds. Ended up with over 2" from the storm last night. Wondering if that line along the NC/VA boarder will shift southward; otherwise it looks like a cool drizzly day.

1.86" so far; still raining some. Places just south of me across northern Wake look to be getting more.

Yep, we're going to have to wait and see how this evolves. Kind of fun having something to track.....Even if it is just cooler or wetter solutions.

RAH from last night: .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 245 AM Thursday... An interesting pattern setting up for the long term period, starting with a cold front passage in the pre-dawn hours Saturday. Models generally agree this front will be located along the coast by 18Z Saturday; however, with the upper trough axis still to our west and SW flow aloft, this will promote overrunning of a shallow low level wedge of cooler and stable air that will move in from the north behind the aforementioned front. The end result will be a mostly cloudy, cooler, and potentially damp Saturday, esp east of the Triad, with rainfall amounts of a couple tenths of an inch possible in the post-frontal rain. Cooler too, with ample low cloudiness and rain. Meanwhile, it`s worth noting as mentioned in the latest TWOAT, the trough of low pressure located over the central Bahamas is progged by several models, including the latest ECMWF, to lift north and merge with the aforementioned cold front remnants off the SE coast on Sunday. Fortunately these models keep any low pres development well off the coast, but should this happen, central NC may actually benefit from this pattern by way of increased N/NE flow which would advect drier air into our area from the north. On the other hand, a front that stalls closer to the immediate coast would warrant PoPs across our eastern zones for Sunday. But the trends have tended to favor the drier option. Finally, such vigorous NE flow would keep temps below normal for daytime highs. That system will exit to our NE on Monday, with mainly dry weather continuing for our area. The next short wave will then approach from the west Monday night and Tuesday, with climo or higher PoPs needed for Tuesday and perhaps into Wednesday with the passage of this short wave. So we do want the low to develop and merge with the front; with (even more) cooler and dryer air being advected in.

That's how I ended my work down in Raleigh yesterday (...not romantic but dark). It really wasn't a big storm but it knocked out the power around 4pm near the US1/US401 split.

18z NAM trends a little cooler with the potential weekend CAD. Midday on Saturday:

RAH now a little more optimistic that the front will push through our area this weekend. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 250 PM Wednesday... A cold front associated with an unseasonably strong northern stream trough/upper low passage through the NE US and Mid-Atlantic states will provide the focus for widespread showers and storms at the start of the period. The timing of this front through the area continues to be a source of large model spread and high forecast uncertainty. General timing brings the cold front into the area from the NW late Friday afternoon and will slip slowly south through the overnight, before finally settling south of the area on Saturday. Low-level frontal convergence underneath the right entrance region of a ~90 kt upper jet streak associated with the upper trough moving through the region will result in deep/strong ascent across the area. Precipitable waters of 2.0-2.25", MLCAPE ~2000 J/Kg and a belt of strong westerlies of 30 to 35 kts dropping south into the area will support the threat for organized strong to severe storms, along with the threat of heavy rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with localized flash flooding possible Friday afternoon and evening. If latest model trends verify, a shallow of wedge of cooler and stable air will advect south through the day on Saturday as the cold front progresses south into SC and GA. While convection should follow the front, models suggest a a period of ana-frontal precip lingering across at least southern portions of the forecast area INVOF of the h8 trough axis Saturday afternoon and evening, possibly lingering into Saturday night. As the cooler and drier continues to filter into the area from the north Saturday night and into Sunday, courtesy of a strong ~1030 parent sfc high over New England, rain chances should decrease, leaving behind primarily cloudy and cool conditions Sunday and Monday. Rain chances return as early as Tuesday and Wednesday with the approach of a shortwave trough from the WSW. Finally, the NHC is monitoring an area of disturbed weather located over the central and northwestern Bahamas. Some slow development of this system is possible with a low-20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next several days. As such, it is incredibly too early to forecast what impacts, if any, are possible across central NC. Make sure you follow a trusted weather source for all of your weather information.