Torchageddon

I'm pleasantly surprised by how today turned out, all that heavy rain is way to the north so no washout. My temps are also 4C higher than predicted as a result so another hot one for September!

I notice after a huge severe weather event or something insane tornado wise there is often no post mortem and things carry on as if nothing happened. If a large severe weather day ended up doing absolutely nothing at all no one will post about how and why it failed but rather there simply won't be any posts and no analysis.

Aside from the cliche, it wouldn't be 185 mph by the time it got to Florida because its forward speed would slow enough to weaken him due to upwelling. Probably would be a category 3 similar to Hurricane Frances' weakening.

Its the 10 year anniversary of Ontario's largest tornado outbreak including 4 F2 tornadoes. I remember staying up all night scouring YouTube for all kinds of tornado videos of the day. There are some decent cells around my part this evening - not common. Just some lightning so far. The "storms" on Sunday were beyond pathetic here but strong in the Lucan/Mitchell areas. I got a severe warning moments after the heaviest of the rain showers past me with a few flashes of lightning. I LOVE Environment Canada as they crack me up with those warnings after the "rain showers" are done with!! EDIT: Best thunderstorm of the year here just a short while ago. Nice lightning, large raindrops to start with that storm. The most significant CG strike while I was outside ever also occurred. I've never had a good look at a strike like that without a window being in front of me. This was WF driven, colour me shocked .

It was a great July, very sunny and minimal rain for me. I had 3 t-storms none of which were even remotely impressive. I stopped a little over a year ago.

I love the look on the 500 mb map at h240. The biggest thing is the prevention of more clouds around the Great Lakes as today and yesterday we're totally clouded over. The lawn went from lush green in June to being burnt presently.

Yep Texas is the best location for getting good weather (and parts of MX), I did a lot of research in 2017 and that's the recommended location even though I could drive to totality as it overlaps into Ontario.

Not for me though, it was overcast and now today is day 5 of total cloudiness. Anytime someone during February says "well March and April will soon be here and it'll be nice and spring-like" I just chuckle and go "no". The awful weather doesn't end until mid-May usually. If I was 15 miles away from solar eclipse totality I'd crawl to it if I had to.

Did you ever figure out what the date of that severe thunderstorm event was? Summer 2003 is all I know (I think either in July/August). Those reading from around MI or southern ON know of a prolific lightning producer that period?

This was from the 2018 Spring/Summer Banter thread, did you get anywhere with that? The date was May 12, 2000.

I've been checking this daily, I'm not sure if I buy into it being anything to consider when it comes to Plains activity. The red contours the other Friday were super impressive looking on the mouseover square for then but nothing happened in that spot. That was 1-5 days before. Its experimental (the dashboard) and I'm trying to find a pattern.

I'm getting the opposite of hopefulness from looking at ERTAF: "A continued northward shift in the NPJ leads us to believe the peak of annual US tornado frequency in the Great Plains (weeks 2 and 3) will be gravely below average."

You missed the most wretched year (May tornadoes) of all: 2017. Last year was truly appalling from an interest standpoint. All those High Risks and nothing memorable - this is my opinion alone but when I think 2017 for tornadoes the only tornado that comes to mind is the Canton TX one. With the 80s being what they were, what large scale configuration led to it? I think the quality severe was probably up north in the GLs because all sorts of stories originate from the mid-late 80s in ON.

I really don't want to hear any hints of death ridge when it comes to the Plains in late May (Only over the GL ). I really need to take the advice of cutting back how much I look at long range data, certainly not good to drive myself crazy. I'm going to look back to see what the mood was like at this time for May 2013 and 2016.

To clarify, what time frame(s) for the deterministic NWP? Just the next 10 days or is that further long range? Mostly interested in the last 10 days of this month.

Did the 00z euro just trash that goodness it showed 2 runs ago?

I think I came across something on eclipsewise.com that does that. I don't know what kind because I quickly went through some sites yesterday.

Oh boy. Another thing is I noticed a lot of folks on ABC's coverage at least not always using their solar glasses to look at the partial eclipse...even the reporters and anchors (one woman was pulled off camera!). I've been reading that even those with the solar viewers in hand and on head got caught with their pants down for a few seconds. They would either not realize it or the desire over-rode their sense. I saw the shadow sweep across the country on GOES-16 satellite using satsquatch.com/map/ and it was pretty neat. Even southern Ontario got dark.

I was at 71.2% and I noticed a change like a cooler breeze and it got dimmer. Its getting to normal brightness now. My solar eclipse glasses worked perfect and saw my first partial. That was pretty cool and makes me want totality even more now! Chile 2019! I saw what Carbondale had...dang! Surprises in a few spots like Charleston SC. Now we see if there is a mass gridlock anywhere.

After coming to the realization I couldn't make it for the 2017 solar eclipse I started thinking about Chile in 2019...not waiting 7 years on a likely cloudy April day. I have no idea how an eclipse trip like Chile would be.

For those sleeping in their car for 1 or some of the days of traveling, where would you park for the rest? When I was looking past and future eclipse maps I noticed different spreads of band width of totality which I guess is when the moon is further away or closer. However some tracks at the mid-latitudes are really wide (300 miles or more) and I have no idea why. When looking at the database of all annular and total eclipses there would be mostly annular ones that are half circle (close to the poles) but a few where total eclipses that had the half circle! What's the reason?