DDweatherman
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Everything posted by DDweatherman
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Velocities up to 170mph in the NNE part of the eye wall courtesy of TLH radar…
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@WxWatcher007hang in there. This one is going to be a wild ride. Maybe you can get us some footage like the 2004 Charley gas station video.
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I would call what happened last night a pseudo ERC. The eye started as nascent than made its way through the stages and in doing so there was the reorganization of the core & CDO. Not the true ERC’s we see with more developed, substantial canes.
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I’m interested to see if there are any frictional effects to tighten the convection and give this a bit more symmetry on its way in. NE eyewall is 58 miles from shore at the moment.
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Agreed. People saying attenuation are denying the fact that we can see directly into the southern eyewall from TBW radar and the northern with TLH. It’s likely closed but it’s robbed of the convection which are those VHT’s and mesovorts in the N/NE.
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Same with TBW even on the edge of the beam, it’s fierce no doubt.
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The bumpiness of the eye on radar now and lightning is still indicating those rotating mesovortices. Looking at velocities we definitely have some impressive #’s on the radar out of TLH.
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Insane chase there, Laura did not play games. Who knew they had hurricanes in Iowa?
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It’ll all come down to the vector once it crosses land. With how intense it’s getting, I’d lean NNE vs N or any tick W of due N. VLD might be ground zero.
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I’m thinking the areas down near bayshore Blvd and of course Gulfport and the beaches are going to have one of their more notable surge events. naples had their biggest surge event in Ian, and the center passed just a bit closer by them and to the NW.
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The eye keeps tightening on radar as it comes in, that RFQ is going to be insane coupled with the upper levels to help mix down big gusts + a quick forward speed. What did you gust to in Laura? I’d expect you get a few 120-130mph gusts there in Perry.
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Stay safe down there, need you for the winter tracking! She’s a monster now coming in, you’ll get all you bargained for it you’re holding steady in Perry.
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100%, question will be where does it go after LF which is our biggest question. We pretty much know VLD will be near the eastern eyewall, but will see straighten up and move more due N or hold that NNE heading. huge implications for the 75 corridor depending on that outcome.
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Note to add that once this gets into that part of Georgia and VLD northward, we start getting into some pretty densely populated areas (Warner Robbins, Macon, Albany, Athens)
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Agree with this. Meanwhile someone from VLD-MCN is going to gust 100+ I’m starting to think.
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This eastern eye wall is passing 80 miles from Tampa Bay. Talk about dodging a completely catastrophic event. The close calls can only go on for so long.
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Been saying it all day but the Valdosta corridor to Albany, GA and up I 75 to Macon could be in for a wild ride with this forward speed and how intense Helene is going to be at LF. Could be their benchmark event relatively far inland.
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Satellite is going pretty nuclear and the core is compacting really tightly on the local radars now. She’s coming in hot now folks. Look out @WxWatcher007
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7pm update or a special might have this at 130-135 depending on our next sonde.
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Radar presentation rapidly improving now from KTBW and KTLH. Tightening eye that’s compacting and wrapping the brighter echoes around the NW quad
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Agree that the stronger she gets the more unlikely it would get tugged NW until the pressures came up a bit (ie the hi-res depictions of a certain threshold)
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Starting to think based on some obs and radar this actually could go west of Perry unless we get some NNE-erly jog late on the approach. Could it come in around St Marks? Somewhere between the two seems feasible.
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The effects other than surge will be a nuisance mostly for the Tampa St Pete metro. You guys get 50-60mph wind gusts from tropical systems plenty. The biggest concern, by far in places like Gulfport and those areas will be the surge. This evening’s high tide could bring a lot of water in that area.
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Going to help the wind damage impacts penetrate further inland though..
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Things are going to be really dicey it seems for Valdosta if current trends continue. They might be in the eyewall later this evening.
