SouthCoastMA
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Everything posted by SouthCoastMA
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convection usually amps things up so it's a valid concern. -
edibles, ipa's, and crack. helluva combo - the NAM and UKIE must be fun at parties
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I don't trust it to locate the primary correctly, so punted.
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Ensembles have a signal for something around 3/11 - slightly stronger vs 0z/6z. The members that do show a storm are whoppers. It's not super strong signal yet, but it's there.
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vs Simsbury, not sure that's a big difference. unless you were planning on being north. pray for ukie/gfs end result
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just an earlier transfer reflected on surface map. primary still around Cleveland
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And it doesn't mean shit here, so I'm not sure why I care. I'll take another tic or 2 south so I can get a couple on the front end, which would mean 6"+ potentially in your neck of the woods.
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The GFS: pretty consistent, some wobbling around Cleveland.
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The Euro past two days: Chicago to Cleveland, slow trek.
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Told you not to fold them. When you go all in you need to ride it to the end, either going down in a blaze of glory, or in flames. No capitulation.
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It has the primary in Detroit which means game over south of NH border. i'm not buying it
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The child was hit by an SUV that was being driven by a female student of South Portland High School, the release said. The driver of the SUV is being charged with passing a stopped school bus with flashing lights, a class E offense, authorities said, adding that the driver said she didn't see the boy, nor the flashing school bus stop sign. ffs. maybe stop texting and pay fkn attention
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GEFS/GEPS/EPS all have a handful of ensemble members showing sub 970/960mb lows near the benchmark between 3/10-12, so hopefully that signal strengthens in the next few days. Then the next period to watch seems to be in the 3/15-3/17 timeframe. Pretty quiet over the next 8 though (aside from the Saturday storm).
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always a small chance the euro makes a couple more tics colder, while the GFS basically holds serve. not likely, but who the hell knows. CNE/NNE seems pretty locked in at this point but some on the southern edge could still be in play
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Might as well keep going at this point, never give up until the ship is sunk!
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My view is that the GFS has been decent in the mid range figuring out the general storm track, sometimes better/faster than the other models .but always seems to falter on the details within day 3. Not just this storm, but in the past couple years.
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So I'm looking forward but don't see anything trackable on the OP runs. Unless we are just talking about potential..to which I say..it's March, time is running out.
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It's pretty amazing to me that models have clustered consistently around Cleveland for the primary. Other than a few wobbles, we couldn't buy any major moves south with that. 10 years ago we probably would've seen a lot more spread 3-4 days out
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tick north but pretty close to 12z. pike gets hammered with ccb, maybe a bit south of that.
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drink down das boot, so smooth
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Not worried yet. I have a lot less room for error though, so I need the globals to tick S again at 12z
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NAM aside, what good are anomalies when determing rain/snow. A lot of that red area supports snow
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That NAM run personified
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It's shite. Another tick S on the 12z globals (or two on the Euro) would be helpful. If things stagnant or even start converging, sleet will be my ceiling.
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Euro currently has the primary in Detroit, while GFS gets it close to Cleveland. Ideally the primary never makes it past Columbus, which could happen if models continue to tick stronger with the block. I'd lock in the GFS though if given the offer, since those late minute north trends are always lurking
