That was my general point, granted I haven't seen 18z yet. The GEFS spread is even wider to me, while the overall mean seems further east. There's still time for positive trends
18z GFS looked like a step back to me. low gets going further offshore. northern energy looked primed to 'subsume' but timing seemed off. maybe due to the western ridge being a bit worse
after only getting .5" of snow last week, I may be prone to some melting if the 17th and 20th both falter. I'm not out yet though; I think one of these will pan out