Our last legit threat for the next 2+ weeks trended warmer, plus the long range confirmed to back down the toilet.
Still some time for the day 5/6 to trend a bit colder with the secondary forming earlier and/or an earlier infuse of the polar air moving south...I guess.
That was my general point, granted I haven't seen 18z yet. The GEFS spread is even wider to me, while the overall mean seems further east. There's still time for positive trends