TugHillMatt

Atomicwx, this subforum is like a peaceful walk in the park on a sunny day compared to some of the others... I may be a bit biased since I am a native of Central PA...but I love coming on here to see how things are going. This and the Upstate New York sub, which I am of course active on, are much friendlier and less egotistical than the others. Of course there will be frustration with the pattern, but I think you all handle it well. Keep on trackin'! I will be tracking along with you guys most of next week, as I will be with family in Danville, Pottsville, and DuBois areas.

Getting some heavy snow in the Tug region currently. Working on a couple inches rright now. This is on top of a several inch glacier. It will be great for skiing in tomorrow.

Doubtful there will be enough cold air around for a big wet snow event. Warmth is waaaaay up there in Canada. I wish it wasn't the case.

Been getting some Upslope snows here for the past hour and a half...having some trouble accumulating...dusting right now.

Many of the models have been starting to show that set up. To me, it has looked like they're trying to show two separate lows, and are having trouble determining which one will be stronger. Upstate is looking to be in between the two.

Just took the garbage out. Driveway and road are a sheet of ice. All moisture on the roads is freezing, plus freezing fog.

Not so sure, Wolfie. Snow depth averages 4 to 6 inches with grass showing up under thick pines and steep southern exposed slopes. A couple days of 40s and a big rain will destroy it this week. Much of that snow shown on those maps is from lake involvement...and we have seen how lame the lake effect season has been. With such quick flow and wind changes, it hasn't allowed for much...other than the Watertown event.

Well, it looks like even most of the Tug will lose our snow pack by the end of this week with that UGLY system coming in. Could end up being a Green Christmas here.

Tonight I am reminded of why I looked forward to moving here. Temps dropped quickly here with temps in the upper 20s with snow pack freezing up, while in many areas in Upstate it is still in the 40s.

Being on the northwest edge, winter precipitation is much more likely...especially with colder air sweeping in behind.

Wow, that is quite the difference. Amazing how the pattern has been all over the place...up to the same day of an event.

Very interesting conversation! Much better than tthe incessant bickering on other forums! Thankful for you all...seriously!

Oh, I love it all. Biggest disappointment for me has obviously been the lack of any good west wind lake snows. Glad we got those two synoptic events in November...otherwise we would be singing a similar tune on here as the other subs.

Upstate New York, according to models, looks to be one of the very few places across the country to have a chance, albeit not much, accumulating snow over the next week. I have had constant snow cover for over a month...so while it has been somewhat boring, we are faring much better than most. Just check the other subs out. Lots ready to "cancel winter." This is especially true for the SNE and Mid-Atlantic crews.

Boy, the forecasted pattern for the long range is all over the place. Backdoor cold fronts, clippers, southeast lows, possible cutter or two...

About 2.5 inches here. More than expected, and a nice freshen up.

I agree! Gotta add Raleighwx to the list. Although I think I heard he left for several reasons.

P.S. Large fluffy flakes coming down here at a moderate rate. Quickly accumulating...

Haha...So true! I remember Will from Fort Kent coming to the Great Lakes sub and mocking all of us for the fake snow we get...yet he moved to Calumet, one of the lake snow champs in the country. I really enjoy this sub and Central PA sub. I grew up there, and those folks are welcoming and laid back. They despise the Mid-Atlantic crew. Lol

The 12Z Gfs looked exciting in the long range, with many snow chances. Steady light snow picking up here on the Tug right now.

I appreciate BUF's honesty in their AFD. "Confidence is low and the models are confusing." was the jist of it.

When you look at that table, much of Upstate NY, including Buffalo, is doing better than most of New England. When I checked out the New England sub, they were getting pretty snippy with each other...that could either be due to lack of snow...or the fact that they are often that way.

Gfs also follows suit with taking next weekend's system farther south and east, as well as being weaker.

The tracks the international models are showing seems to match the synoptic pattern we were in during early November. Perhaps we will return to that pattern before true winter sets in...I see a higher chance of "elevation-dependent" precipitation coming...

Looks like Mexico is in the midst of a nice band. Heading your way, wolfie.