olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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Ugly
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There's that psychological factor of hitting double digits, or the one foot mark, but all and all it should be a pretty satisfying storm, as long as we can get a few impressive snow bands before the changeover. On the plus side, we don't have to worry about melty mush snow, we get the best during the daytime and it should stick around for a few days. It looks like the latest RAP joins the consensus with sleet coming in around 11 am.
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I saw that too, a tad suspicious. But wouldn't surprise me to get a steady, very light snow starting at around 10 pm. It would be nice to see a dusting before I try to get some sleep.
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RAH still going with all snow during the daytime Sunday. Seems pretty unlikely at this point.
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Yes. 3 hours later is a different story
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Warmer overall, but less of a warm nose this time, ends up evening out.
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Much more of a pronounced warm nose this run, FWIW
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The NAM is definitely closer to all snow for Guilford county. The NW corner even stays all snow. Move the sn/ip line 20 miles south, and we're golden.
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No warm nose at 700 mb on the 12z HRRR. It's not really reliable at this range, but good new nonetheless.
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The 0z Euro has heaviest snow in Greensboro from 6am to 2pm with snowfall rates in the 1.5-2" per hour range at peak, if we can stay snow until the heaviest banding comes through, I will be more than content.
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Whoa, it's like 200 miles east of the NAM
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When you get heavy freezing rain a good portion doesn't actually accreate. You can cut those totals on those maps by at least half.
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It's just the arbitrary point where the absolute center is moving around in the broad area where the center is. Look at the mslp lines, they don't move around much.
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Mid levels are significantly better on the 3km NAM in the Triad than the 12km. Impressive banding too.
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It's going to be painful watching the sleet line in Greensboro. I think it may end up setting up over Guilford county for a long while.
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My only complaint is, as I understand, a more consolidated low may push up mid level temps.
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The column is less saturated, wait for the heavy precip to arrive before comparing
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Even more dry at 30, Virga city:
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Lots of mid level dry air (this at GSO)
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I never know quite what to make of the RGEM. It always seems to have strange convective blobs.
