olafminesaw

1 minute ago, MUWX said:

Golden city is tiny. If it misses the dot on radar scope, it will miss town 

Yeah, except radar isn't quite that precise, gets distorted a bit.

37 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

Yeah something tells me 2019 will even blow those years away. Maybe I should learn to love heat, if that's even possible.

Honestly, if we could just get some storms. But mega ridge for weeks. At least the Midwest get's the occasional Derecho in this kind of pattern

Someone's probably getting 10" 

How unusual is it for the highest tornado threat to line up with the highest flash flood threat?

8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

I’m going with the Canadian 

I'm going TO Canada

14 minutes ago, yoda said:

MODERATE RISK ISSUED FOR WIND

And 15% tor. Kind shocked TBH. It's been a while since the last one in the region I think.

Thanks, but snow trophies melt, and I lost the one from last year. How will I be able to impress the hot chicks without the trophies to prove my forecasting prowess? 

1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Olaf’s just sitting on the football running out the clock. Coach@showmethesnow has already headed to the locker room and declined all post-game interviews. 

And you're checking to see if all the balls are fully inflated.

Seems awfully wedgy this morning for severe. But there's time to clear out a bit I suppose.

The 18z Nam  dewpoint is running 10 degrees above actuals for this afternoon in the triad

Everyone tommorow

Kinda strange how to our south is looking so much better. Goes to show what a dynamic system can do

1 minute ago, calculus1 said:

The 00Z 12K NAM does not disappoint! A nice 6-inch swath of snowfall from Charlotte to Greensboro! Upstate SC gets 1-3 inches. Also, the afternoon discussion from GSP was priceless. Check it out if you haven't seen it yet.

Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk
 

Below freezing in the middle of the day too in the heaviest snow axis.

Are there any analogs for this?

Lolwat

Pretty much the worst possible track for Beira, a city of 500k.

52 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I’m not sure what you mean- right now, any amount at DCA (at least up to 0.4”) would give you an outright lead. Stormpc would overtake you with any amount at RIC though.

I was curious about two things if you don’t mind me asking: what does your screen name mean, and didn’t you use to live in DC? It says now you live in NC?

I think Stormpc said in another thread that he was moving to NC- living there may be crucial to winning these contests! Lol

Right, I had those numbers flipped. 

It was an auto-generated screen name generated by Runescape from a long time ago, I used it for a lot of accounts.

I moved to NC this fall. I had been going to school in Newport News and I lived in Chantilly 3 years ago. I nearly didn't enter this year because I no longer lived in the region, but  someone tagged me, since I won last year.

1 hour ago, RodneyS said:

It appears the key thing for you is to have IAD come in under 2.5 inches for the rest of the snow season.  If it receives that much or more, Bob Chill would catch you.  In my case, I need IAD to come in under two inches, with BWI picking up at least 1.9 inches.

Also Stormpc would overtake me with any amount at DCA

It seems historically I am more likely than not to hold on for the win, but my margin for error is narrow.

Odds of at least .1" of snow in the second half of March/April (past 30 years):

DCA (April): 23% (6.6%)

IAD: 51% (13%)

BWI: 43% (10%)

RIC: 23% (10%)

Odds of at least 1" of snowfall

DCA: 13%

IAD: 40%

BWI: 20%

RIC: 10% 

1 hour ago, Brick Tamland said:

Really strange how tightly clustered the ensembles are. Kinda makes me suspicious.

38 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Just hope there's not a northwest trend where that core ends up in Roanoke, Va. 

A week out trends are mostly meaningless, although for the next 3ish days I'd like to keep it South.

We just might beat Boston this winter.