olafminesaw

The saddest of mangled flakes mixing in South Greensboro

Maybe we'll see a flake or two in the Triad. If only precip arrived a few hours earlier...

1 hour ago, SteveRDU said:

When was the last time that happened?

'05-06 was just a trace.

13% of winter's since 1920 in Greensboro have featured less than an inch of snow. I think we'll get there, but at this point I would be happy with anything at all.

This winter has made me excited for the line of heavy rain to come through tommorow night. That's how much it's sucked.

41 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said:

The 6z GEFS shows snow in Mexico City, I know it's like 7,000 feet in elevation, but how often does Snow in Mexico City happen?

 

It's fascinating, Wikipedia says they used to get ocassional lake effect snow (once per decade or so) but since the lake's disapearance in 1965, they have not received any snowfall

37 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

The lack of any sustained cold in ANY model is much more concerning than lack of storms showing. No COLD = no CHANCE, even if a storm pops up. Just bleak right now. And it being north of 60 next few days aint helping my mood! I remember in the beginning December we were talking about "at least there's no torch showing." Well, no torch showing means it'll definitely torch. 67 in Elkins is INSANE. 60+ here, unfortunately, is becoming normal.... Hate to say it, but I'm about ready to stick a fork in this winter. February and March snows aren't all that good anyway. Sun angle really screws with them. Were in the prime climo and sun angle season right now and I BARELY see lows below freezing, lows!, for the next 10+ days... Buckle up, the sanitarium is going to be fun!

I just want something to track. Is that too much to ask? That's the fun part anyway.

2 hours ago, Stormpc said:

Funny thing I was just in the SE sub-forum and saw Olaf contribute.  I checked and he is in Greensboro NC! Did he ever live in the MA? To top it off, I'm in NC too now. So the perennial dominance at the top is from 2 NC NOOBS? 

Well it certainly helps to not be blinded by the inevitable November optimism. 

Temps are running a couple degrees below the forecast high today. Could definitely see some slick spots tommorow morning

Just now, msuwx said:

Canadian remains quite icy with 12z run.

4 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

Which would lead me to believe that would be mostly sleet, right?

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Climo isn't necessarily against us. Some of our (Raleigh Area) most crippling ice storms have occurred in the first part of December. I would say climo would be against all-snow more than an ice event

Makes sense. Most of my life I lived in the DC area, and ice storms seemed pretty rare in December, compared to January/December. I guess CAD holds stronger in NC and it makes a difference this time of year to be further inland(but conversely the warm push aloft is stronger)

2 hours ago, JoshM said:

6z GFS went all in

Hour 222 has a 1050 Banana High

Who needs power anyway? 

I could see a changeover event, but to state the obvious, climo is against us. 

BWI: 16.5"

DCA: 12.9"

IAD: 14.1"

RIC: 7.6"

Tiebreaker SBY: 9"

Seems plausible 

5 minutes ago, Solak said:

GFS and EURO both showing a decent coastal low next weekend. Too warm for wintry precip, but hey, it's something to track

EURO Sunday, GFS Friday.

 

Ya never know with a CAD, somone could get some frozen on the front end,

4 hours ago, JoshM said:

Euro gives most of NC a little love.

This is a different storm than the GFS has been hinting at. That is a week out.

2 hours ago, Solak said:

 

The craziest thing to me is that the bottom was 40+ degrees colder than the top

34 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Well-formed small vortex in the right place at the right time. Nearly all requirements for RI and MPI met at once. Strong banding around such a small vortex will eventually halt this round but there will likely be reintensification after ERC with a larger eye. Having said that, based on sat estimates, peak intensity has been achieved.

 

At this time there isn't much off structurally in comparison to Patricia or Wilma. The eye is doing a trochoidal wobble that may slingshot it right over the island -- a possible sub 900 hPa hit of you've ever seen one.

Fortunately the island is uninhabited. 

92 with a dewpoint of 50. That's a rare occasion.

22 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

There is something so very wrong with this 86° at 11am.  It doesn't even feel like a July heat.  The sun angle is wonky, the hot is a different kind of hot.  Don't know what it is.  It's like there is a radiant furnace in front of your face instead of a humid, oppressive sun burning kinda hot.  

Then again I may be delusional from heat exhaustion.  I hope this cold front rides in on a chariot with trumpets from the heavens.  

Yeah, I think especially with dewpoints lower than typical of a heat wave, it doesn't feel so bad. It's just strange because I would normally associate a dry heat with intense sun. 

90 degrees at noon, in October. No thanks

Hopefully some good rains in the second week of October