olafminesaw

Possible Florida impact aside, it's hard to ignore the persistence of the GFS showing an enormous storm off the East coast. Could be interesting days ahead.

14 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Unfortunately it does look like the northern semicircle of the half-moon eyewall is heading right towards the Lake Charles area unless it can take a more eastward vector in its slightly E of N motion.
 

I think it will hit lake charles with the western portion and at least western Lafayette with the eastern portion. Goes to show how much bigger this is than Laura

Current trajectory puts landfall just east of Cameron. Maybe 10 miles east of Laura

The NHC track ticked west. Makes sense with the turn to the east delayed by a few hours. Lake charles now at a 60% chance of hurricane force sustained winds. Probably good news from a surge perspective. Will hit low population areas

16 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Seems like it is going a bit west of track? Yet to start moving east of north per radar. That turn should be occurring very shortly.

Seems to have stalled out a bit the past few frames. I'm guessing that indicates the turn is happening

2 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

I think he meant they were the exceptions.

Yeah,the point being, it was basically assumed before the past couple years that landfalling gulf canes were half-canes

1 minute ago, JasonOH said:

SFMR gets messed up in high rain rates. Those low values were all right in the middle of a huge rain rate spike. Dropsonde should give us a better idea of what’s going on since SFMR couldn’t that pass.

Dropsnode 88kts it's at the surface, but 121kts just above the surface

Down to about 970/71 mb

2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Delta has that "look" this morning. IMO it looks more organized exiting the Yucatan.

Yeah, what helped Cancun is bad news for the gulf coast: a larger, more stable core and an expansion of the wind field

Thankfully, Cancun appears to be mostly cinder block construction. A bigger city of than I thought, over 600k, similar to the size of Nashville

The core is only about 40 miles across. With a little under 24 hrs until landfall, I expect it to make a run at cat 5

4 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Heck of a burst in the southern eyewall 

 

Recon will be heading in soon. May very well find the most dramatic strengthening yet

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not the most classic looking on IR. Sort of oblong shaped with it being squeezed from the east. Not sure if that ridge pushing in will have an effect or not. 

Maybe somewhat improved from earlier though? It lost the big convective blob to the south

25 minutes ago, Amped said:

A massive convective burst in the eastern eyewall is rapidly expanding.  It looks like it's going to dwarf the last few. This might be the breaking point.   

All of a sudden, it appears to rapidly be developing a core.

The Euro has a similar landfall point to Laura as a weak hurricane

Cat1/2 at landfall seems to be the ceiling, even with quick forward speed:

Increasingly it seems, the models are showing an extremely high shear in the gulf will tear soon to be Gamma to shreads. The only way I see it surviving is if it manages to stall out a bit until the environment can improve.

Starting a thread, now that continued organization is likely and landfall along the gulf coast is an increasing threat. 

The 6z HWRF is highlighting this evening, into tommorow for a period of fairly quick intensification, once the system gets more stacked. After that track/intensity becomes nearly impossible to predict, with weak steering flow.

Pretty quick development in the short to medium range. Probably gets mostly swallowed by the Yucatan due to its small size, but hard to say for sure

Radar estimate: .3"

Actual: .05"

That dry layer really ate up moisture. Goes to show how having good radar coverage matters

Looks like once again, NE flow from a wedge should tamp down any flood threat that Beta would otherwise bring. Also fast moving. Lots of parallels to Sally really, just a weaker system.

Edit: It does look like there are some dynamics at play. Frontogenisis with a transfer of the low to the coast. Probably up towards the VA border. Has some serious winter storm vibes. DC special if this were January

9 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

This has to be the hottest 77° I've ever felt this morning.  The humidity is unbelievably oppressive.  Combine that with bright sunshine and ugh!  Saturday cannot get here fast enough.  Can I buy a breeze too?

September should be the start of soup season and by that I certainly do not mean atmospheric soup. The good news? We're only a week away from the average latest 90 degree day

Lel

1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

Since you posted an hour ago another burst of convection has started.  So the waxing and waning as modeled seems to be happening

Levi talked about this, how it's expected to pulse as the convection fights the shear and then dies off