olafminesaw

16 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Exactly...there isn't enough southerly flow and moisture transport, you can also see the high pressure and drier air pushing down from the north. Honestly expect nothing here now and will be surprised with an inch.  

And the 12z NAM confirms this

9 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Big bust potential for I 40 corridor from Marion to Greensboro due to warm temps and light precip rates. A expect a lot of bare grounds 

Yeah, gotta wait for the coastal to take over to get decent rates unfortunately, but at that point it may be pulling away

Radar starting to blossom nicely in central TN

Yeah, the NAM twins are not really much different, does more to confirm 2-4" is quite attainable

The HRRR is mostly useless outside 12 hrs. Even then it runs warm.

Just now, jjwxman said:

The NWS RAH just pulled the trigger on WWA's for most of their counties.  

The advisory says 1-3", but my point forecast is only has a 50% chance of precip. Kinda odd.

Euro takes a step North

The HRW models all came north from 0z

1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

Folks were discounting the NAM yesterday but now taking it into consideration when modeling the warm nose.   I know it is typically pretty good with warm nose but this is also due to the fact it is really amping up the storm.  The warm nose is directly related to how strong it amps up that low.  If the NAM is overdone, then so is the warm nose.  
Plus, the warm nose will go away with this storm as it progresses.  It will not persist the entire time.

Yeah, better to flip to sleet for a while and get good rates than be fringed. Obviously down towards SC is a different story.

Looking at soundings, the NAM sugguests sleet could threaten to push as far north as the Triad

The NAM looks a touch North and a touch slower to bring the precip at hr 24

For the SREF, I would look at QPF as well, ad it tends to run quite warm .5" QPF for Greensboro

4 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I can’t believe sun angle hasn’t been mentioned once. You SE crew are a more upstanding group than us degenerates in MA.

We have the warm nose to harp on  instead (for good reason)

This has a feel like much like the best of the Hampton Roads storms I've experienced, just further south with the strong high, and fed by the robust southern stream that had been featured all winter. All that to say, a dynamic developing system with cold air over the top goes a long way.

My call for Greensboro:

<1" 25%

1-3" 50%

4"+ 25%

RAH hasn't updated snow maps since 4 pm yesterday. It will be interesting to see how conservative they will be

Says it all

Small improvements on the GFS through 42

Looks more surpressed at 45. Not a huge change, we'll see how it plays out

Euro looks like a small step in the right direction

9 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

GEFS cut back again

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Looks like an uptick in the mean actually, across the piedmont

Kinda embarrassing that RAH still has 20% chance of precip for my location

The ICON takes a step in the wrong direction. Looks pretty anemic. I've never really found it to be a reliable model though.