olafminesaw

Ugly

6 minutes ago, Poimen said:

For the Triad, there is more or less a consensus for snow beginning around 1 am and continuing as all snow through 11am-noon, before mixing with and changing to sleet. We'd have to pull 1" per hour rates just to get 10-11". Experience says that is unlikely. So we're probably looking more like 7-9" on the high end, with some sleet on top. That's my call, but I'm of course hoping for more. 

There's that psychological factor of hitting double digits, or the one foot mark, but all and all it should be a pretty satisfying storm, as long as we can get a few impressive snow bands before the changeover. On the plus side, we don't have to worry about melty mush snow, we get the best during the daytime and it should stick around for a few days. 

It looks like the latest RAP joins the consensus with sleet coming in around 11 am.

1 minute ago, Poimen said:

Got an mPing of snow in Clemmons (near Winston). I'm not expecting it, but it would be nice if we could get things started earlier than ~1am here. 

I saw that too, a tad suspicious. But wouldn't surprise me to get a steady, very light snow starting at around 10 pm. It would be nice to see a dusting before I try to get some sleep.

RAH still going with all snow during the daytime Sunday. Seems pretty unlikely at this point.

Just now, mclean02 said:

Was that a Gso sounding ?

Yes. 

3 hours later is a different story

Warmer overall, but less of a warm nose this time, ends up evening out.

10 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

Euro snow maps? 

Much more of a pronounced warm nose this run, FWIW

The NAM is definitely closer to all snow for Guilford county.  The NW corner even stays all snow. Move the sn/ip line 20 miles south, and we're golden. 

No warm nose at 700 mb on the 12z HRRR. It's not really reliable at this range, but good new nonetheless. 

The 0z Euro has heaviest snow in Greensboro from 6am to 2pm with snowfall rates in the 1.5-2" per hour range at peak, if we can stay snow until the heaviest banding comes through, I will be more than content.

3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Old GFS is out there on its own with the speed of the system. Hauling ass by hr24, whereas some of the other models discussed are well to the west of where the GFS has the LP.

Whoa, it's like 200 miles east of the NAM

When you get heavy freezing rain a good portion doesn't actually accreate. You can cut those totals on those maps by at least half.

3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

The low on 3k is jumping around like crazy between hr37-40. I’m guessing it has to do with the convection and dynamics and what not. 

It's just the arbitrary point where the absolute center is moving around in the broad area where the center is. Look at the mslp lines, they don't move around much.

Mid levels are significantly better on the 3km NAM in the Triad than the 12km. Impressive banding too.

It's going to be painful watching the sleet line in Greensboro. I think it may end up setting up over Guilford county for a long while.

Just now, RTPGiants said:

People are going to like this run I think. Onset is later, but temps seem way better, and there's plenty of moisture being pulled in with a high right to the north. Seems like it might be a weenie FV-3 type run...

My only complaint is, as I understand, a more consolidated low may push up mid level temps.

Just now, beanskip said:

OK, so the NAM just warmed 2m temps by about 6 degrees F over the Carolinas vs. the 12z run at around 30 hours. WTF?

The column is less saturated, wait for the heavy precip to arrive before comparing

Even more dry at 30, Virga city:

3 minutes ago, burgertime said:

NAM isn't as wet with the onset of snow compared to 12z. Still has precip breaking out but stays around GSP. Out to 21 hours. 

Lots of mid level dry air (this at GSO)

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

Yea the RGEM is straight nuts Burrell. Huge squall line modeled along with much more northern extension of snow with it.

I never know quite what to make of the RGEM. It always seems to have strange convective blobs.