olafminesaw

3 minutes ago, JoshM said:

Here's a clown/weenie map for you guys to wake up to

My weenie is certainly awake. Let's bring it home with some adjustments South through 12z.

17 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

Two things: 

1. Just because a low is jumping around doesn't make a model run unrealistic. Lows are going to jump to where the combination of vertical lift and low level spin are maximized. 

2. 18z GFS FV3 was a pretty cool run. Caught a wide swath of people with significant snow. Seemed like a pretty reasonable run, as far as dynamics go. Let's hope that continues.

Might we expect the FV3 to handle dynamics  better than its twin?

2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

The trajectory of the precip @75 on the nam just looks awesome. Looks like it’s about to go nuclear.

Well, the hour 84 NAM always, and I mean always, goes nuclear. So not really saying much.

A really good track. I imagine it would be colder. More sleet along the R/S line. 

6 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Wait, what? Is that a 12-15 inch mean on the EPS ensembles? Trying to work here people, how did this happen? lol.  

I don't think I've ever seen that kind of thing. Beautiful. 

How much is sleet? Who knows, the ensembles won't get the thermal profiles right anyway.

32 minutes ago, Poimen said:

Dew points from the 84 HR NAM: Mid teens throughout VA and NW NC. 

I look forward to the raging virga storm. Right on the North side of the gradient is a great place to be.

I expect to see a shift in track over the next 24 hours, usually there is at this range. My guess is it will stay reasonably far south to start, but hug more inland, like the FV3. I'm anticipating a sleetfest. 

It's not surprising it's trended warmer, being early December, all frozen events are extremely rare

Last night's UKMET was lovely

2 minutes ago, oconeexman said:

Looks mega warm though...ugh

That seems to be it's bias. It also shows ice as rain with the TT algorithm, I believe.

3 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

I think the FV3 needs alot  of work. I wouldnt  count  on that considering it seems much worse than the regular GFS.

Don't blame the model, blame the algorithm on that site.  Sometimes I think we'd be better without snow maps altogether. The micro details they present distract from big picture trends. 

1 minute ago, lilj4425 said:

This is how much snow we are going to see. 

That's about 3" on my screen.

The GEFS looks good, but I don't like that it slowed down some.

No point posting 10:1 nonsense to be honest.

The GFS has been jumping around quite a bit. Give it a couple runs and see if it jumps back south again. Unless you live in SC, in which case you shouldn't have had hope in the first place TBH.

It's a lot slower. That's a big reason for the jump North I think.

2 minutes ago, Suncat said:

I've put on my running shoes so I can build up some speed before making my leap off the cliff. I want to be sure to be in front of the pack!

I'm calling it, before tomorrow night's 0z Euro will be the time to get in line to get ahead of the big rush. Wouldn't want to get trampled before going over the edge.

I don't feel great about the FV3 jumping North so much so quickly, hopefully the trend doesn't continue at 0z.

Pretty consistent, really.

1 minute ago, griteater said:

18z GFS 

 

Sweet, sweet pivot.

Just now, Wow said:

Wow.. at 180.. nearly stalled off SC.. snowing over most of NC

Supports the Euro in that regard. A bit further North of course.

13 minutes ago, jburns said:

Very little is certain. Not sure why you think 28-30 would cause a change.

That was too specific. I'm just saying, with CAD it's rare to flip straight to rain, especially at 35.

16 minutes ago, Wow said:

Looks like the Wunderground forecast algorithms have ingested the latest models.. lol

 

Their algorithm is silly, it has 35 degrees and snow for my location. Would certainly flip to ice or sleet at like, 28-30.